Best Animated FeatureBolt
Kung Fu Panda
Wall-EWho Will Win: Wall-E, though this race is closer than I would have thought if I had made this prediction a month ago.
Kung Fu Panda unexpectedly swept the Annie Awards (for animation), walking away with nearly all the top prizes. That said, I still think the widespread critical and popular adoration for
Wall-E (plus the fact that Pixar almost never loses this category) will pull it across the finish line.
My Choice: Wall-E. It ought to be up there in the Best Picture category, but we won't get into that right now.
Best Adapted ScreenplaySimon Beaufoy for
Slumdog MillionaireDavid Hare for
The ReaderPeter Morgan for
Frost/NixonEric Roth and Robin Swicord for
The Curious Case of Benjamin ButtonJohn Patrick Shanley for
DoubtWho Will Win: This should be just the beginning of a lot of love for
Slumdog Millionaire. People love the structure of the film and this category (as well as editing) is the place to reward it. A possible upset is David Hare's adaptation of
The Reader, should that happen, more wins from that durable underdog may be on the way. For now though,
Slumdog looks to claim the prize.
My Choice: Slumdog.
Best Original ScreenplayDustin Lance Black for
MilkCourtney Hunt for
Frozen RiverMike Leigh for
Happy Go LuckyMartin McDonagh for
In BrugesAndrew Stanton, Pete Docter and Jim Reardon for
Wall-EWho Will Win: Interesting category full of unique work, but the winner seems pretty clear. Since opening in more theaters,
Milk is really developing a following and this is one of its best chances for a win. Producers struggled for decades to try and create a film about the Harvey Milk's career, but Black started from scratch, did the research, and hit it out of the park.
My Choice: Milk.
Best Supporting ActressAmy Adams in
DoubtPenelope Cruz in
Vicky Christina BarcelonaViola Davis in
DoubtTaraji P. Henson in
The Curious Case of Benjamin ButtonMarisa Tomei in
The Wrestler
Who Will Win: This category is evil. My average with it is not good, and this year it's not any easier. Many pundits are banking on Cruz, but I don't think she has all that much momentum. It seems to be that if
Doubt has so many acting nominations, the voters will want to make sure someone in the cast gets a trophy. Davis won very enthusiastic raves for her work, but splitting the vote with Adams will hurt. On the other hand, Henson could pull this off if the voters decide
Benjamin Button needs some love somewhere. All in all, very tough, but I'm going to bank on Davis.
My Choice: Tomei.
Best Supporting ActorJosh Brolin in
MilkRobert Downey, Jr in
Tropic ThunderPhilip Seymour Hoffman in
DoubtHeath Ledger in
The Dark KnightMichael Shannon in
Revolutionary RoadWho Will Win: I'm always more nervous when I'm personally invested in a particular category's outcome, but a win by Heath Ledger seems overwhelmingly certain. The performance itself is amazing, but likely would not have made it this far were it not for his tragic death last year. If anyone could upset, it would be either Hoffman or Brolin, but that seems highly unlikely. There are plenty of people who feel Ledger should have won for
Brokeback Mountain, and this will be the last chance for the Academy to honor his devastatingly short career.
My Choice: Ledger. The curious thing will be who presents the Oscar for the category. Normally, it would be the previous year's Supporting Actress winner (Tilda Swinton), but the producers of this year's telecast say they're shaking up the formula and keeping the identities of the presenters a secret. One rumor says that Joker Emeritus Jack Nicholson will present this award. We'll know for sure Sunday.
Best ActressAnne Hathaway in
Rachel Getting MarriedAngelina Jolie in
ChangelingMelissa Leo in
Frozen RiverMeryl Streep in
DoubtKate Winslet in
The ReaderW
ho Will Win: This category is nasty this year. We can rule out Melissa Leo. She was a surprise and her nomination will probably be seen as the reward itself. Angelina has won before, and I think she will have to find a way to stay out of the tabloids for a while before the voters feel more comfortable giving her more attention. Meryl Streep, who has the most nominations of any performer in history, hasn't won for over 20 years. This year, her work in
Doubt has earned her the SAG award, a good sign. There's a lot of goodwill out there towards Anne Hathaway, and I could see a scenario with her winning...though the Academy doesn't seem to be all that crazy about her movie - this is its only nomination. Winslet is the one who really shook up this contest. She's been riding most of the awards circuit in the Supporting Actress bus, but the voters are so into
The Reader that they bumped her up into the lead category. She's been due for a long time (5 previous nominations), and I'm thinking the stars will finally align.
My Choice: Winslet. As I've said, she's really overdue. In my opinion, she should have won this category years ago for
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. I'm not a big fan of
The Reader, but the best performers rarely win for their best work.
Best ActorRichard Jenkins in
The VisitorFrank Langella in
Frost/NixonSean Penn in
MilkBrad Pitt in
The Curious Case of Benjamin ButtonMickey Rourke in
The WrestlerWho Will Win: This is hard too. For whatever reason, this category always seems to devolve into a two-man race. This year, it's a nail-biter between Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke. Rourke has the more compelling backstory, and seems to really want the victory more than Penn, though he's an odd guy and may turn off some voters. Penn floored audiences as Harvey Milk, and the Academy seems to be very fond of the movie, but then again he just won in this category 5 years ago. A very close competition, but I think in the end, Penn will squeak ahead because of the broader support for the film in general.
My Choice: Rourke.
Best DirectorDanny Boyle for
Slumdog MillionaireStephen Daldry for
The ReaderDavid Fincher for
The Curious Case of Benjamin ButtonRon Howard for
Frost/NixonGus Van Sant for
MilkWho Will Win: Boyle, and commandingly so. He's been turning in unique, interesting work for a long time, and
Slumdog Millionaire's visuals nearly jump off the screen. He's already got the Director's Guild win which almost always forecasts this category.
My Choice: I would be pleased with a win by either Boyle or Fincher.
Best PictureThe Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog MillionaireWho Will Win: Slumdog. Don't listen to Harvey Weinstein -
The Reader was a surprise, but it's too controversial to go the distance. There's a bit of poetic justice going on here. Following an ugly smear campaign against
Slumdog, which I'm just about positive was perpetrated by Big Loud Harv, plenty of articles have sprung up dissecting
The Reader's view of the Holocaust, which is morally questionable at best. If a film will upset, it will be
Milk. Will the Oscars want to make up for
Brokeback Mountain's infamous loss by honoring another film about gay rights? Probably not this year.
My Choice: Slumdog if the question is just about my favorite out of the five nominees.
Milk if the question is about which victory would have the most important cultural power. I really wish
The Dark Knight was up here...bastards.