Oscars 2021 Educated Guesses

My sense of time is all screwed up.

Usually at this time of year, the Oscar predictions have been in the can for two months. But like everything else, the Academy Awards has experienced major disruption during the past year. In retrospect, it was a stroke of good luck that the 2020 ceremony happened only about two weeks before COVID-19 brought the world to its knees, with Parasite's amazing, historic win as one final moment of goodness and triumph before the darkness took over. That moment ended up near the top of the very short list of actual good things that happened in 2020. 

14 months later, the Academy has had the longest time out of these organizations to figure out a way to conduct its business amid the ruthless plague that may be starting to wane but is still very much a threat. Their solution has been to spread the nominees and guests across multiple venues, both in the United States and Europe, so that winners can accept in person while still adhering to social distancing guidelines. They're reportedly hoping to avoid footage of winners accepting via videochat programs like Zoom, especially after several moments from the Golden Globes went viral for all the wrong reasons.

One of the stories playing out over the past few years is the Academy's reluctance to give its top prize to movies that premiere on streaming services, trying their best to keep the movie theater experience relevant. Steven Spielberg spoke for many of his peers when he said that movies that come out on Netflix, Amazon Prime, etc should be competing for Emmys, not Oscars. This year they don't particularly have a choice. Movie theaters were empty for most of the year and almost all of the nominees had to swallow their pride if they had any hope of being seen by the public. I'm perfectly fine with streaming premieres competing at the Oscars (especially given that most of them aren't originally intended for that and end up getting bought by these companies at film festivals) but I have to admit that when it comes to trying to see all the nominees, I prefer the theater. The films are spread across numerous streaming services, some on the obscure side, so there was a lot of get-the-free-trial-watch-the-movie-then-cancel-before-I-have-to-pay action going on over the last couple of months. 

But since I've gone to all the trouble of seeing these movies, let's talk about them!

Best Animated Feature
Onward
Over the Moon
Shaun the Sheep: Farmageddon
Soul
Wolfwalkers

Who Will Win: Here's the first example of what I was just talking about. Pixar's Onward is the only one of these films to actually play in theaters, opening mere days before the lockdowns began. That one has some writing issues and will surely be outshined by Soul, the other Pixar movie from this year that ended up debuting on the Disney+ service. Wolfwalkers, by the frequently nominated studio Cartoon Saloon, might have had a better shot if it had found a more prominent platform than Apple TV+. Seriously, I don't know anyone who has that one. Soul should win this without much trouble.

My Choice: Soul is a deserving winner and the most interesting Pixar movie in a few years, but I can't help rooting for Farmageddon. I wish stop-motion features won this category more often.

Best Documentary Feature
Collective
Crip Camp
The Mole Agent
My Octopus Teacher
Time

Who Will Win: There's not an obvious winner here, but I'd bet on the Netflix documentary My Octopus Teacher, about nature filmmaker Craig Foster's unexpected bond with an octopus living in the kelp forest off the coast of South Africa. Time is probably the one most relevant to today's world, which could help its chances but I think it's anti-incarceration viewpoint will seem extreme to many of the voters.

My Choice: My Octopus Teacher is an amazing feat of underwater photography but any footage not shot by Foster is weirdly manipulative and stagey. I'd pick Collective, an epic story about how a tragic fire at a concert unearthed deep-rooted corruption in Romania's health system.
 

Best Adapted Screenplay
Ramin Bahrani for The White Tiger
Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Peter Baynham, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Mazer, Jena Friedman, Lee Kern and Nina Pedrad for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller for The Father
Kemp Powers for One Night in Miami
Chloe Zhao for Nomadland

Who Will Win: Check out that list of writers on Borat, that has to be some sort of record. The Academy will probably avoid that one just to save on production costs for the statues. I'm also not sure what a "screenplay" looks like for a movie that's so dependent on improvisation and hidden camera stunts. This category tends to favor individual writers and I suspect it will go to Nomadland. Zhao took a non-fiction book and modified it to have a combination of fictional characters and the real people involved. It's a creative concept and ended up being quite effective.

My Choice: I enjoyed a lot of the eloquent debate between the characters in One Night in Miami. A little bit of trivia - Kemp Powers is also the co-director of Soul, so he's probably going home with an Oscar one way or another.

Best Original Screenplay
Will Berson and Shaka King for Judas and the Black Messiah
Lee Isaac Chung for Minari
Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman
Darius and Abraham Marder for Sound of Metal
Aaron Sorkin for The Trial of the Chicago 7

Who Will Win: This is a close category stacked with heavy hitters, but I think it would be foolhardy to bet against Aaron Sorkin. It helps that his dialogue was delivered by several excellent actors in what was probably the year's best ensemble. Another potential winner is Emerald Fennell, whose carefully constructed script for Promising Young Woman pulled off several twists and turns.

My Choice: I don't really have a favorite here, although the subtleties of Minari's characterization and setting details were impressive.

Best Supporting Actress
Maria Bakalova in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman in The Father
Amanda Seyfried in Mank
Yuh-jung Youn in Minari

Who Will Win: For all the love Parasite got last year, the Academy was chastised for not nominating anyone in the cast for the acting awards. This year, this category will likely be won by a Korean actress starring in an American film where most of the dialogue is in Korean. Youn has a long career in her native country but was unknown in the West until she played the irreverent but wise grandmother in Minari. She seems genuinely astonished by the attention, which should work in her favor. Who doesn't love an unassuming winner? The closest competition is Glenn Close, who is on her eighth nomination and has never won. She almost had it two years ago until she was upset by Olivia Colman, who is also here but unlikely to repeat history. What's hurting Close this time is that Hillbilly Elegy was roasted by critics. Youn will almost certainly win, so let's hope Close's ninth nomination is for a better movie.

My Choice: Maria Bakalova, and not just because pretending to be attracted to Rudy Giuliani is Oscar worthy in and of itself. In addition to amazing improvisation skills, she was the unexpected heart of Borat and gave it a surprisingly emotional story arc. The category fraud may be hurting her, she gets much more screen time than her competition.

Best Supporting Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen in The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr in One Night in Miami
Paul Raci in Sound of Metal
Lakeith Stanfield in Judas and the Black Messiah

Who Will Win: Here's an odd situation: the two lead roles of Judas and the Black Messiah both ended up in the Supporting category. I suppose the voters couldn't agree on who the main character was? Going by screen time and the overall structure of the film, Stanfield is clearly the lead role but the Oscar will likely go to Kaluuya, who does have more of a true supporting role as the late Black Panthers leader Fred Hampton. The British actor does such a good American accent that he saw fit to remind the audience on Saturday Night Live that there are indeed black people in the UK. By the end of Sunday night, there will likely be an Oscar-winning black person in the UK.

My Choice: Kaluuya is a force of nature, but my favorite performance here is Paul Raci as the gentle mentor figure in Sound of Metal. I don't think that character ever raises his voice but commands a lot of respect just the same.

Best Actress
Viola Davis in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand in Nomadland
Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman

Who Will Win: This is super close and the precursor awards have been spread out among this group. I feel confident it will either be Viola Davis or Carey Mulligan. Davis won Best Supporting Actress a few years ago for Fences, but that was a widely criticized case of category fraud and it has been frequently argued that she still hasn't really gotten her due. However, given that Ma Rainey's Black Bottom is all but certain to win Best Actor (see below), some voters may feel that wins for both lead categories is overkill. Meanwhile, Carey Mulligan is a highly respected performer best known for costume dramas who has never won and played against type to memorable effect. I'm predicting her but it feels like a coin toss.

My Choice: Viola Davis. That was a larger than life performance that only a few actresses could have managed. She was able to show new sides to Ma Rainey throughout the movie and the audience always wants to see more of her.

Best Actor
Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins in The Father
Gary Oldman in Mank
Steven Yeun in Minari

Who Will Win: The easiest call of the night. The late Chadwick Boseman is all but certain to win posthumously for the intense, vulnerable performance he gave as a trumpet player barely keeping his demons at bay. Could anyone possibly beat him? Steven Yeun is making history as the first actor of East Asian descent to ever compete in this category. Embarrassing, isn't it? We always talk about how black people get shortchanged at the Oscars, but Asians have it much worse in that sense. He would have a good chance if Boseman were still alive. Unfortunately, he isn't. The actor's sudden death from cancer last summer has made Hollywood well aware that this is the only chance they will have to recognize his talent.

My Choice: I like Riz Ahmed and Steven Yeun's performances quite a bit, but it has to be Chadwick Boseman. That performance was so good he would have easily been nominated if he were still alive, although it would have probably been much closer.

Best Director
Lee Isaac Chung for Minari
Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman
David Fincher for Mank
Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round
Chloe Zhao for Nomadland

Who Will Win: The big story this year was the nomination of two women in this typically all-male category. It came as quite a surprise given that it can be like pulling teeth for even one nominated. But female directors have become more visible than at any other point in my lifetime that I can recall and it becomes less feasible to ignore them with each year (not that it won't happen again because it probably will). The winner looks to be Chloe Zhao, who has been streamrolling through this awards season and has the telltale Director's Guild win that almost always coincides with the Oscar.

My Choice: I don't have a strong preference this year. A win by Zhao will be greeted with all sorts of jubilation and excitement and that's always nice to see. 

Best Picture
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Who Will Win: How is anyone supposed to predict a category that swings from Green Book one year to Parasite the next? This has been the hardest category to predict for several years now, but let's see what we can eliminate right off the bat. The Father and Sound of Metal haven't been as widely seen as the rest. Daniel Kaluuya is the only one from Judas and the Black Messiah who has been getting awards and it's safe to assume that trend will continue. Mank would have had a great shot about ten years ago, when the Academy had a streak of giving Oscars to movies about show business, but the trauma of the Trump years seems to have convinced them to put away childish things. Promising Young Woman has exceeded expectations for what's essentially a classed-up version of the rape/revenge movies from the 1970s, but I imagine it's too confrontational for some of the members.

The remaining three are the ones with a real shot at this. Minari has a lot of admirers and in many ways feels like a classic "American Dream" tale, but I think it's just too quiet and gentle to win. The Trial of the Chicago 7 could very well pull it off. It has mawkish boomer qualities similar to Green Book and it would be reasonable to assume that demographic could prevail again. But I don't imagine this is a year where the voters will go back to the 1960s, not when the present has been so harrowing. It seems like a time for something more contemporary, which brings us to Nomadland. In addition to being a very well-made film in just about every respect, it has a certain melancholy that really speaks to the moment. The final scenes in particular, which unfold in a desolate town ruined by economic collapse, cut right to the heart of things. So my prediction is Nomadland, but it's not a sure thing. This category never is anymore.

My Choice: Honestly, I don't find this year's Best Picture race all that exciting, certainly not compared to last year. Nomadland and Minari are both lovely and I would have no complaints about either of them winning. Most of the stuff I really liked didn't get nominated for anything. In terms of what did, my mind keeps going to the Bosnian film Quo Vadis, Aida that is competing in the International Feature category. That movie is an absolute knockout with an emotional impact that left me trembling (just a little bit). I would love to see it in contention here, but no dice. 

That's all for this year. If all goes well, only 10 months until I do this again!