The 3rd Annual Perfect World Awards

The Oscar nominations come out tomorrow and spoiler alert, people will be annoyed. Not sure exactly how yet, but they will be. In the meantime, I better get this done. If you haven't seen this before, it's just me stacking the top categories with movies and performances that really impressed me, indulging in a fantasy where the Oscars actually survey the entire year in film rather than a dozen movies released over a month's time. Let's get started!

Best Picture
Baby Driver
Brigsby Bear
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Last Jedi
The Villainess

Plausibility: Middling. Dunkirk and Lady Bird are safe bets and surprisingly, so is Get Out. It won't win, but it will be nice to see a horror film in the line-up unless something goes awry at the last second. Brigsby Bear is too quirky and Baby Driver is way too much fun. The Villainess would give a good number of Academy members heart attacks with its intensity. The Last Jedi isn't completely implausible but the Star Wars fandom can be so obnoxious that the Academy probably doesn't want anything to do with it. That leaves The Florida Project, which was my favorite. It could certainly happen, but it's basically on the bubble and could easily be pushed aside by something else.

Best Director
Sean Baker for The Florida Project
Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird
Byung-gil Jung for The Villainess
Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk
Edgar Wright for Baby Driver

Plausibility: On the low side. Nolan's the only one I feel totally confident will show up. The Florida Project would need to have a major showing for Sean Baker to get nominated. Edgar Wright's movies are so delightful and I really hope he shows up here someday, but it won't be this year. Byung-gil Jung oversaw a handful of glorious action scenes that put Western blockbusters to shame in The Villainess, while also balancing them with a character-based melodrama. It's tremendous work, but the Academy's just too insular. That leaves Greta Gerwig. She has good odds, but we know from experience that it's unreasonably hard for a woman to get into this category unless her name is Kathryn Bigelow. If I had to make the call, I would say she gets in...and if she doesn't, be prepared for a shitstorm of the highest order, one that could feasibly push Lady Bird to a Best Picture win (like the Argo/Ben Affleck situation a few years back).

Best Actor
John Cho in Columbus
James Franco in The Disaster Artist
Hugh Jackman in Logan
Daniel Kaluuya in Get Out
James McAvoy in Split

Plausibility: Pretty much the same as Director. After his Golden Globe win, sexual harassment allegations came out against Franco, but I think Oscar voting was basically done by that point so I suspect he'll still get nominated. Daniel Kaluuya has a good shot, barring another "so white" year. John Cho was great in a movie that was very small, intellectual and understated - not Oscar material. James McAvoy did a hell of a job differentiating all of his different personalities in Split, but if a horror movie's going to break into Best Actor, it ain't this one. In a better world, Hugh Jackman would have had a good shot at this. His final performances as an old, desperate Logan was a great way to end his exceptional run as the character. Someday he'll be thought of as the Wolverine equivalent of Sean Connery's James Bond.

Best Actress
Carla Gugino in Gerald's Game
Ok-bin Kim in The Villainess
Frances McDormand in Three Billboards
Brooklynn Prince in The Florida Project
Saoirse Ronan in Lady Bird

Plausibility: Another two out of five (seems to be a theme this year). Wonder Woman was good but if you want to see a woman kick even more ass, have I got a movie for you. We've established that The Villainess will not be showing up anywhere this year, but if the Academy made an effort to see more movies in a given year (and if a nobody like me can manage it, they have no excuse), Ok-bin Kim might have made the list. McDormand is guaranteed a nomination and probably the win. Saoirse Ronan won't be far behind. Carla Gugino would have a shot if Gerald's Game wasn't a Netflix movie - old fogeys in the movie business are pretty salty about all this streaming business. Brooklynn Prince gave one of the most moving child performances I've seen in years, but this category is just too competitive.

Best Supporting Actor
Gil Birmingham in Wind River
Willem Dafoe in The Florida Project
Mark Hamill in Brigsby Bear
Michael Keaton in Spider-Man: Homecoming
Pheoung Kompheak in First They Killed My Father

Plausibility: Not great! Willem Dafoe is The Florida Project's surest bet for a nomination and rightfully so. The rest of these are unfortunately out in the weeds and honestly, I could have stacked this category with ten people this year. The fate of Pheoung Kompheak's stoic Cambodian dad is foretold in the title of the film, but his sensitive performance makes you hope for some kind of miracle to save him. Michael Keaton brought tons of menace and character to one of Spider-Man's sillier adversaries. Mark Hamill's presence really elevated Brigsy Bear, which is in large part about our connection to pop culture icons (like Luke Skywalker, for instance). As for Gil Birmingham, he was only in about three or four scenes, but his performance as a frustrated and utterly devastated father in mourning is outstanding. It's the kind of performance that can open people's eyes to the injustice around us, but unfortunately Wind River was produced by the Weinstein Company and will be a casualty of the revelations about Harvey Weinstein's disgusting (if not altogether surprising) behavior.

Best Supporting Actress
Elizabeth Cappuccino in Super Dark Times
Carrie Fisher in The Last Jedi
Kiara Glasco in The Devil's Candy
Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird
Josie Olivo in The Florida Project

Plausibility: Laurie Metcalf saves this one from being a complete wipe-out. Super Dark Times is too....dark. Josie Olivo's role in The Florida Project is likely too small, but her character has a well-defined arc despite that. I have a soft spot for metalhead teen girls (in a perfectly safe paternal way, you pervs), so Kiara Glasco would be great, but The Devil's Candy is a horror movie. There's a lot of sentimentality going into this Carrie Fisher pick, but I couldn't help but have a sense of that Heath Ledger/Dark Knight melancholy as I watched a moving final performance from an actress who had already been dead for almost a year. The Last Jedi will get a lot of nominations in the tech categories but this is one that is also well-deserved.

That's all for this year. Predictions regarding the real nominations will be next.

The 2nd Annual Perfect World Awards

I had fun with this last year, so let's try it again. Oscar nominations are coming soon and it will be really hard for them to leave black people out this year, but you never know! Before the traditional grumbles begin, I've stacked the categories with my own wishlist while keeping in step with the Academy's rules. Let's start at the top.

Best Picture
Arrival
The Invitation
Kubo and the Two Strings
Hell or High Water
The Monster
Moonlight
Sing Street
Zootopia

Plausibility: If you read my Top 10, you know I'm on Team Moonlight. Thankfully, it has a good shot at a nomination. So does Arrival. Hell or High Water may get in there too. The rest...unlikely. Animated films have to make a huge impact to land in this category - not even Inside Out could manage it last year. Sing Street wouldn't be seen as having enough gravitas. The Invitation can be a tough watch and alienates many viewers. And of course The Monster is a horror film and doesn't have a shot in hell, although Sean Spicer may argue otherwise.

Best Director
Jaume Collet-Serra for The Shallows
Barry Jenkins for Moonlight
Karyn Kusama for The Invitation
David Mackenzie for Hell or High Water
Denis Villeneuve for Arrival

Plausibility: Pretty decent! Barry Jenkins and Denis Villeneuve have very good chances. David Mackenzie is a long shot but not impossible. Unfortunately for Kusama, it's hard for a woman to get in this category unless your name is Kathryn Bigelow and you make big manly war films. Nobody would consider a silly B-movie like The Shallows for awards, but Collet-Serra's underwater photography and use of scenery were really beautiful, to the point where it was a minor letdown when the killer shark actually showed up. Still, the mood and imagery of Moonlight still haunt me a few months after seeing it so it'd be great to see Jenkins get an Oscar.

Best Actor
Casey Affleck in Manchester By the Sea
Brian Cox in The Autopsy of Jane Doe
Ryan Gosling in The Nice Guys
Do-Wan Kwak in The Wailing
Max Records in I Am Not A Serial Killer

Plausibility: Barely. Casey Affleck is highly favored for a nomination and possibly the win. The rest...not so much. Ryan Gosling will probably get in for La La Land, but I would prefer to recognize the hilarious comic performance he gave in The Nice Guys. Cox is an underrated actor who elevated what otherwise would have been a stock role. Do-Wan Kwak is going way out on a limb, since the Academy doesn't even seem to be aware that Asians sometimes appear in Hollywood movies, let alone movies that come from Asia. And once again, Max Records is in a horror film so no dice. It's a shame because his performance as a young man fighting against his recently diagnosed sociopath tendencies was the most complex, interesting take on this condition I've ever seen in a movie.

Best Actress
Amy Adams in Arrival
Ella Ballentine in The Monster
Rebecca Hall in Christine
Taraji P. Henson in Hidden Figures
Anya Taylor-Joy in The Witch

Plausibility: Low. Amy Adams is the only one with a good shot. Henson might make it if Hidden Figures does really well. Ballentine and Taylor-Joy were great in horror films, so we know how that goes. Annoying, isn't it? You would think Rebecca Hall had a better chance given that Christine checks most of the Oscar boxes - real-life story set in the past, lead character has an illness, media sensationalism is a highly relevant topic now,etc - but I guess the release was just too small.

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali in Moonlight
Michael Fassbender in X-Men: Apocalypse
Jack Reynor in Sing Street
Trevante Rhodes in Moonlight
Patrick Stewart in Green Room

Plausibility: Mahershala Ali is a good bet, but why stop there? Moonlight had a ton of good acting in it and the contribution of Trevante Rhodes as the older Chiron really brought things in for a solid landing. I would have thought Patrick Stewart had a better shot because it's so against type but I can understand Academy members not really wanting to think about Nazis at this particular moment in time. The last X-Men movie was one superhero film in a sea of them but Fassbender gave it 110 percent. My pick would be Jack Reynor, who really got to me as the frustrated noble older brother in Sing Street.

Best Supporting Actress
Tammy Blanchard in The Invitation
Naomie Harris in Moonlight
Allison Janney in Tallulah
Soo-an Kim in Train to Busan
Kate McKinnon in Ghostbusters

Plausibility: Almost a complete wipeout if not for Naomie Harris, who has a good chance. Blanchard and Janney both gave very emotional performances in films that have been absent from this awards season. Even though the Ghostbusters remake was (pathetically) the most controversial movie of the year, Kate McKinnon's scene-stealing greatness seems to be generally agreed upon. My favorite was little Soo-an Kim, who showed off a huge range. However, the movie is Korean and is about a train full of zombies, so we're way outside the realm of Oscar awareness here. It's a shame, because you'd think they really were meant to represent an entire year's worth of film, not just all the middlebrow dramas released right before New Year's Day.

That's all for now! I'll be back to predict the results of the actual nominations soon enough.

The First Annual "Perfect World" Awards

The Oscar nominations are this week and much grumbling will surely ensue. This was a pretty great year and there will be many deserving movies and performers left out regardless of how the nominees look. I thought I would try something new this year and stack the Oscar categories not with what I think will win but what I think deserves the recognition. The difference between the two will be very clear by the end of the week, I'm sure. I've chosen to call this the Perfect World Awards, although I'm still going to try and adhere by what I know of the Oscar rules. Take a look and feel free to add your own in the comments if you're so inclined.

Best Picture
Advantageous
Creed
Inside Out
It Follows
The Look of Silence
Room
Spotlight

Plausibility: Since the rules change in 2011, the amount of Best Picture nominees can be anywhere from 5 to 10 depending on the enthusiasm for the individual films. With that in mind, it's tempting to just stack this one with all the films from my Top 10 list. But thinking it over, a few of them just didn't really seem like a good match even though I love them. One of them (White God) actually isn't eligible because although its US release was this year, it came out in Hungary last year and was submitted for the Foreign Language category (didn't make it).

So how realistic is this? Well, Room and Spotlight have a very good chance of making the list this year. Pixar movies have been nominated since the rules changed and Inside Out could very well show up. Creed is a long shot but it could happen. Advantageous had far too small of a release to even get on the Academy's radar. It Follows is a horror film so it will get no respect. As for The Look of Silence, there's no rule against a documentary making the Best Picture nominee list but it's never happened before so it's not likely to start now.

Best Director
Ryan Coogler for Creed
George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road
David Robert Mitchell for It Follows
Joshua Oppenheimer for The Look of Silence
Jennifer Phang for Advantageous

Plausibility: We are way into wishlist territory here. Believe it or not, the only one here with a decent shot at getting nominated is George Miller depending on how well Mad Max does. Ryan Coogler would only show up if Creed had an unexpectedly huge showing. Mitchell has no chance, which is a real shame since It Follows was one of the year's most visually striking movies in any genre. It takes a much bigger film than Advantageous to get a female director a nomination. As for Oppenheimer, this is another category where documentaries just don't show up but if his body of work continues to be as astonishing as the two Indonesia movies, maybe he'll be the first someday. Maybe.

Best Actor
John Ashton in Uncle John
Bryan Cranston in Trumbo
Samuel L. Jackson in The Hateful Eight
Michael B. Jordan in Creed
Mark Ruffalo in Spotlight

Plausibility: Umm...somewhat plausible, if unlikely. Bryan Cranston probably has the best chance for his performance as the screenwriter Dalton Trumbo. In addition to doing great work, Hollywood just loves movies about itself. Jordan needs Creed to perform big to have a chance. Jackson is a long shot, but could be a potential surprise. Even though John Ashton's performance is my favorite on this list, Uncle John was seen by very few people. As for Mark Ruffalo, this is a little unorthodox because the studio is pushing him for Supporting Actor, likely because they see Best Actor as too competitive. But watching Spotlight, you can see that he's got the most screen time and is present for most of the big moments.

Best Actress
Juliana Harkavy in Last Shift
Thora Helga in Metalhead
Nina Hoss in Phoenix
Jacqueline Kim in Advantageous
Brie Larson in Room

Plausibility: It was tough to limit this one to five, I could have easily expanded it to ten and added Rooney Mara, Maika Monroe, Charlize Theron, Taissa Farmiga and Kitana Rodriguez. The only one here with any chance of an actual nomination is Brie Larson. Critics loved Phoenix, but that seems to be where the love ends. Last Shift is a horror film that was elevated a great deal by Juliana Harkavy's sincere performance, but it's still a horror film. A movie about metal is probably just as unlikely to get any respect so Thora Helga and her demonic makeup won't be showing up.

Then there's Jacqueline Kim, who also has no chance. It's funny - for all the talk last year about the lack of recognition for black actors, it's far more rare to see Asian actors nominated. Once again the under the radar nature of Advantageous works against it. It might be nice if the Academy members made an effort to see more movies, but more on that in a bit.

Best Supporting Actor
Idris Elba in Beasts of No Nation
Michael Keaton in Spotlight
Kurt Russell in The Hateful Eight
Sylvester Stallone in Creed
Ray Wise in Digging Up the Marrow

Plausibility: Not bad! Elba and Stallone are very likely to show up and Keaton also has a good shot. Kurt Russell would need a Hateful Eight sweep to get in, which is too bad because he was arguably the highlight of the film. The most unlikely is Ray Wise, an underrated actor best known for playing Leland Palmer in Twin Peaks. He really dug deep as the father of a missing child in Digging Up the Marrow, adding serious gravitas to a movie that was otherwise kind of silly.

Best Supporting Actress
Malin Akerman in The Final Girls
Jennifer Jason Leigh in The Hateful Eight
Kristen Stewart in Clouds of Sils Maria
Mya Taylor in Tangerine
Alicia Vikander in Ex Machina

Plausibility: A little bit, but not much. Leigh is a likely nominee and Vikander may make it in, although not necessarily for that movie since she's been in several acclaimed films this year. Kristen Stewart is considered unlikely by most of the pundits, but her performance in Clouds of Sils Maria has won many other awards so I wouldn't necessarily count her out. Mya Taylor could get in if the Academy is feeling extremely progressive, which is rare despite Fox News always insisting that they're communists out to turn everyone gay or whatever. Malin Akerman has absolutely no chance, which is a shame because she was one half of the mother-daughter relationship that made The Final Girls surprisingly heartfelt and moving for a goofy meta-comedy.

I could do more categories, but I think that's enough. It's safe to say the nominations won't look much like this. Still, what I find sadder is that people might look at this and be like "Oh, you're just trying to be politically correct." But I'm not. All I'm doing is looking at the last year in film beyond the typical Oscar bait. Once you do that, the nominees do start to look a little more diverse. Rather than trying to find one or two performances by minorities to coalesce around each year, the way to truly start to fix the Academy's diversity problem is to expand the definition of what an "Oscar movie" is. Why does it always need to be formulaic biographies of famous disabled people or stories about just how spectacular the life of an artist is? Until that changes, the nominations won't.

Hope you guys enjoyed this new activity. Before long, I'll be back with the more familiar ritual of trying to guess the winners. See you then!