The Coming Piracy Resurgence

 

I first noticed this because of Skinmarink. If you haven't heard of it, it's a bizarre experimental horror film that had made waves in the horror community because of its unique qualities, divisive reactions, and some uniquely terrifying scenes. When I first saw people raving about it last fall, I did some reading and was surprised to learn that it had only played at a few festivals at the time. How had so many people seen it? 

In the wake of the COVID-19 plague, some film festivals have given people the option of participating digitally. I've done this myself - you pay for access to a small streaming platform where you can watch these movies for a limited time. It turns out some unscrupulous participant recorded the entirety of Skinamarink and gave it to a piracy website. I won't identify it here, but I will note that they cleverly named it after a very popular fictional character which means that searching for it using Google or another engine is not likely to be successful. You need a direct link. When I found one, I learned that this site didn't just host this one film, but thousands of other movies and TV shows. I've seen movie piracy before, but not like that. I doubt this is the only site of its kind and I can say with confidence that this could seriously disrupt the entire movie industry within a few years.

The last movie I can think of that had this sort of word of mouth driven piracy campaign was the excellent Swedish film Let the Right One In, but that was about 15 years ago. While there are some people who will always pirate movies if they have the means, in general the convenience of digital streaming sites lowered the demand for it for a number of years. So what happened? It became less convenient.

As of this writing, I use Netflix, Amazon Prime, and Shudder for my movie streaming activities. Other ones come and go but those are the main ones. There are more platforms than ever before and lately it seems like we're paying the same amount or more for libraries that are shrinking in size. I had HBO Max for a while until some incoming executive took a hatchet to their once impressive library, so I let that one go. Shudder was significantly hobbled last year by a round of layoffs from their parent company and now their continued existence depends on the popular The Last Drive In with Joe Bob Briggs. If that ever goes, they're looking at a potentially fatal exodus of subscribers. As for Netflix, I wouldn't put it past them to only show two episodes of the last season of Stranger Things each year, since they know full well that's the major reason people are sticking around.

The conditions are ripe for a piracy resurgence and advancing technology means that it will be easier than ever for people to watch movies illegally. Gone are the days where you might have to wait a few hours for your computer to download a movie, you'll be able to find it streaming and start watching immediately. Hollywood and the streaming companies will need to do some soul searching if they want to lessen the impact. It worked out okay for Skinamarink, which grossed $1 million in its small theatrical release. Given that it cost $15,000, that's a huge success. When some $200 million superhero movie comes up short because people decided it was easier to just wait until it showed up on some piracy site, that will be a nasty wake up call.

Oscars 2023 Educated Guesses

All of my predictions for last year turned out to be correct, but I couldn't have predicted that.

I don't have much to add to the millions of words that were written about the Will Smith slapping incident, only that it was a true "monkey's paw" moment for the Academy. For years, they have been desperate to get the TV ratings up and turn the show into something everyone was talking about the next day. That's exactly what they got. I doubt many of them would say it was worth it, although the memes were exceptional. 

And now the Oscars have awkwardly shown their faces again, like the first time you see your uncle after he made a drunken ass of himself at Thanksgiving. They are definitely laying low this year, with very little of the usual angst about the ratings and no stunts like the Best Popular Film poll. I don't think we'll be seeing that one again, given that the entire point of it was to give an Oscar to Spider-Man: No Way Home but the Zack Snyder fanboys swung the vote to Army of the Dead. To paraphrase Clemenza from The Godfather, "Oh, Best Popular Film. Won't see that no more."

A lot of the traditional categories are still pretty interesting so let's get started.

Best Animated Feature
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Pinocchio
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red

Who Will Win: Most of the people who follow the Oscars are predicting a win for Pinocchio, for a few reasons - the outstanding stop motion animation, Guillermo Del Toro's pedigree, and the amusement of honoring a totally different version of the story the same year that Disney released one of their no effort assembly line live-action remakes of their 1940 masterpiece. It could happen, but I'm gonna go out on a limb and bet on Puss in Boots. Stop motion typically fights an uphill battle in this category, which leaves an opening. Nobody expected much from a sequel to a spinoff of the Shrek series, which has been inert for at least a decade, certainly not such an exciting, visually dynamic, just plain fun adventure like this. The cascading acclaim it has enjoyed since its Christmas release could very well carry it to a win.

My Choice: Puss in Boots was outstanding and definitely deserves it, although I have a soft spot for the adorable Marcel the Shell with Shoes On.

Best Documentary Feature
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny

Who Will Win: This one is pretty close and could be swayed by current events. A win for Navalny, a profile of Vladimir Putin's domestic adversary Alexei Navalny, will probably have the dictator threatening nuclear war (since that seems to be his go-to response to anything that upsets him). It's a hard scenario to resist, but I actually think the voters will go with Fire of Love, the story of volcano researchers Katia and Maurice Krafft. The astounding footage of volcanic activity and the real-life tragic love story at its center has huge appeal. In recent years, this branch seems to have moved away from picking winners based on social/political relevance and more towards cinematic technique.

My Choice: I think Navalny deserves the win solely because of that prank call scene. Annoying Putin is just a bonus.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson and Ian Stokell for All Quiet on the Western Front
Kazuo Ishiguro for Living
Rian Johnson for Glass Onion
Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie for Top Gun: Maverick
Sarah Polley for Women Talking

Who Will Win: The director's branch is in hot water again since all five nominees are men, so it might make sense for the voters to make sure Sarah Polley doesn't go away empty-handed. It helps that the premise of Women Talking is so simple (no false advertising in that title) that the writing is more noticeable than it might have been in these other films. 

My Choice: I would give it to Rian Johnson. Glass Onion was so timely it felt like it could have been written this afternoon...and it was quite funny too!

Best Original Screenplay
Todd Field for Tar
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert for Everything Everywhere All At Once
Martin McDonagh for The Banshees of Inisherin
Ruben Ostlund for Triangle of Sadness
Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner for The Fabelmans

Who Will Win:  Everything Everywhere All At Once (hereafter referred to as just Everything Everywhere because I've got to get this done in time) is very well positioned because it has the conceptual ambition and cleverness that lines up well with this category's highbrow streak but also builds to a major emotional catharsis that appeals to people who otherwise might not be interested in multiverse stories. Todd Field's complex screenplay for Tar is probably the only real threat, but I don't see it winning.

My Choice: Given all the wild things that happen in Everything Everywhere, the script descriptions alone must be quite an interesting read. Hard to resist that one.

Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau in The Whale
Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All At Once
Stephanie Hsu in Everything Everywhere All At Once

Who Will Win: Angela Bassett is the first cast member of a Marvel movie to compete for an Oscar and it looks like she's going to be the first to win as well. The other possibility is Jamie Lee Curtis as the churlish bureaucrat Deirdre Beaubeirdre in Everything Everywhere. I can't quite believe it will happen, though. It's nigh impossible for a fully comedic role to win an Oscar and Curtis's character is mostly used for gags. Bassett commands the screen with her regal bearing and she has the "overdue" narrative going for her. It will be close either way.

My Choice: Jamie Lee Curtis is great and all, but I don't get why Stephanie Hsu isn't the one from that movie getting the awards. Her character arc is at the heart of the movie and the whole thing wouldn't have worked without her.

Best Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson in The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry in Causeway
Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan in The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All At Once

Who Will Win: It would be foolish to bet against Quan when he has been absolutely unstoppable in all of the preliminary awards. His first role was as Indiana Jones's child sidekick Short Round in Temple of Doom, but not many roles came after that and Quan was sure his career was over. Almost forty years later, Everything Everywhere comes along and offers him the comeback he had always dreamed of. People can't get enough of his story and it helps that he's very good in the movie, nailing all the different multiverse versions of his character.

My Choice: Quan was great, but I was pleasantly surprised to see Brian Tyree Henry make the final list. He's a really underrated actor and although he's not going to win this time, I hope he gets another chance.

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett in Tar
Ana de Armas in Blonde
Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie
Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All At Once

Who Will Win: Most of this year's limited drama has come from this category and the surprise nomination of Andrea Riseborough, who made the cut thanks to a last minute campaign by many of her fellow actors. The Academy even conducted a brief "investigation" into how it happened, which must have been a huge self-esteem booster for the poor woman. But surprises happen every year, what's the problem? It boils down to two points. First, To Leslie is a tiny movie even by Oscar standards that made only a pittance at the box office and that the vast majority of people have never even heard of. Publicists who think they can spend their way to the Oscars were mortified that their efforts could be potentially foiled by an old-fashioned word of mouth campaign. I suspect most of the pressure on the Academy leadership to investigate came from them.

The second issue is that if Riseborough had not been nominated, that spot would have almost certainly gone to a black woman - either Danielle Deadwyler for Till or Viola Davis for The Woman King. It's a bitter pill to swallow, but some people have even gone as far to say that Riseborough "stole" the spot from them, which is absurd. There are four other nominees here, after all. Maybe Ana De Armas is the one who "stole" it, since just about everyone hates Blonde and she still got nominated. The reality is that nobody's nomination is "guaranteed" until it happens, even if all the precursors seem to suggest it. 

Yet for all the yearly discussions of the Academy's weak record on recognizing black actors, something important gets left out and this is the perfect year to talk about it. Their record with Asian actors is even worse. Michelle Yeoh is the first Asian woman to compete in this category. Not the first in this decade or something, the first ever in 95 years. So can she make history again by winning? It seems likely, but she has one hell of an opponent in Cate Blanchett, the legendary actress who gave what will likely be one of her most famous performances as the predatory orchestra conductor in Tar. Blanchett could definitely win, but it would be her third Oscar and it just wouldn't mean as much to her. Yeoh has gotten choked up in interviews multiple times talking about the experience of acting in this movie. The voters aren't supposed to be swayed by stuff like that, but they totally are. Great headlines about making history wouldn't hurt either.

My Choice: Michelle Yeoh gave the performance of a lifetime but that's not even the main reason I'd like to see her win. It would be an extraordinary moment and the public is in desperate need of good news.

Best Actor
Austin Butler in Elvis
Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser in The Whale
Paul Mescal in Aftersun
Bill Nighy in Living

Who Will Win: A little bit of trivia - everyone here is a first-time nominee, which hasn't happened since 1935. Brendan Fraser was a huge star in the 90s before receding from view in the midst of personal and professional turmoil. He made a dramatic return covered in heavy prosthetics to play the kind but self-destructive lead character of The Whale. Similar to Ke Huy Quan, there's a comeback story at work here and Fraser himself seems like a genuine and emotional guy. The only issue is that people tend to like him personally much more than the actual movie, which has been the subject of numerous think pieces about its depiction of obesity. If enough voters can't quite, ahem, stomach giving the movie an Oscar, Austin Butler's impressive breakthrough performance as Elvis Presley is a strong alternative. He's playing a real-life musician, which is a path that has gotten statues for at least two dozen other actors. It's a real coin toss, but I'm calling it for Fraser.

My Choice: I've had "Polk Salad Annie" stuck in my head ever since I saw Elvis a few weeks ago, and I'll need an apology from Austin Butler before I can root for him. I think my pick would be Paul Mescal as the dad hiding soul-crushing depression from his daughter while on vacation. He gave one of those performances that makes you forget you're watching someone acting, which I'm not sure you can say for the rest, as good as they are.

Best Director
Todd Field for Tar
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert for Everything Everywhere All At Once
Martin McDonagh for The Banshees of Inisherin
Ruben Ostlund for Triangle of Sadness
Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans

Who Will Win: More often than not, the Academy tends to consider directing a singular job. A directing duo has only won in this category twice - Jerome Robbins and Robert Wise for the original West Side Story in 1961, and Joel and Ethan Coen for No Country For Old Men in 2007. It looks like that statistic will soon have to be updated. because Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (often referred to as just "the Daniels") won the Director's Guild Award this year and we all know what that means. Everything Everywhere had a budget of approximately $20 million, but it looks like it cost about three times that amount. Judging from how all these nominations played out, the polish paid off.

My Choice: This category is a bit uninspiring this year, I prefer when it lines up less with the Best Picture category and there were a lot of other movies that had some really impressive directing. That aside, Everything Everywhere is just overflowing with creativity so those Daniels have definitely earned it.

Best Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Tar
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking

Who Will Win: If there was any doubt that the Academy membership is all over the place, it should be put to rest with the presence of both Top Gun: Maverick and the remake of All Quiet on the Western Front in this category. The former encourages audiences to cheer at a pre-emptive military attack on another country that would probably start World War III in the real world and the latter is a brutal anti-war film about the horrors of World War I. The opposing viewpoints essentially cancel each other out and neither is likely to win. All Quiet on the Western Front suffers from comparisons to the original masterpiece (which actually won Best Picture in 1930) and Top Gun: Maverick isn't a great match for this crowd. To be blunt, the majority of them are too old to be swayed by 1980s nostalgia. Similarly, many of them probably suffered from sensory overload during Elvis and Triangle of Sadness is much too cheeky. Women Talking is a small and quiet movie that's been drowned out by some seriously noisy competition. The nomination for Avatar: The Way of Water is a gesture of respect for James Cameron's technical brilliance, but if the original movie couldn't win in this category, then the sequel doesn't have much of a chance.

That brings us to the higher tier. Tar is the most cinephile-friendly nominee but it's primarily an intellectual experience and the Academy likes emotional resonance. The Fabelmans has that but an autobiography of its director could be seen as small time compared to much of Spielberg's other work. He hasn't won either Picture or Director in a long time - it seems the voters believe he was given his due in the 1990s. The Banshees of Inisherin has done very well considering how weird it is, but I don't see it achieving enough of a consensus to conquer the preferential ballot. 

Everything Everywhere All At Once has won the top prize at nearly all of the preliminary guild awards, a stronger showing than I think most of us expected, which makes it the clear front-runner. It may seem surprising at first because it feels like a very modern movie. That and the fact that Best Picture winners typically don't have dildo fights in them. Upon further consideration, it does make sense. The multiverse antics are really just a backdrop for a familiar story of family conflict. Even if the science-fiction makes your head spin, the big emotional payoffs hit hard. The Academy's instincts often steer them wrong, but not this time. This won't be one of those winners they feel embarrassed about after a few years. 

My Choice: Everything Everywhere All At Once > Tar > The Fabelmans > Women Talking > Avatar: The Way of Water > Triangle of Sadness > Elvis > All Quiet on the Western Front > The Banshees of Inisherin > Top Gun: Maverick.

As always, I wish the Academy would branch out a little more when it came to the movies in this category, but Everything Everywhere is a deserving winner. Until next year, everyone.