Oscars 2025 Educated Guesses

If the Academy Awards are meant to be a summation of a year in film, the current lineup of Best Picture nominees does the job. We've got a 3.5 hour epic dissecting the American Dream, a compelling dramedy from a rising auteur, a gripping chamber drama set in the Vatican, a biopic of a legendary musician, a swing for the fences body horror/satire, a polished science-fiction adventure, a Brazilian historical drama, a haunting art film composed entirely of shots in the first person, a hugely popular musical, and a, um...less popular musical. It's that last one that took up all the oxygen in the room during the most acrimonious Oscar season I can remember. It's a shame, because the movies deserve better...most of them, anyway.

Harvey Weinstein may be disgraced and in prison where he belongs, but his awards campaign philosophy lives on in all the social media users who gleefully provide opposition research for free. In the case of Emilia Perez, there was plenty to work with, but I can't help but feel like if it wasn't around, this would have happened with some other movie. We've gotten so used to these patterns - developing an all-consuming grudge, scouring the internet for any weakness to exploit, turning everything into an exhausting culture war all the time, even if it comes at the expense of our actual culture. Maybe I'm just old and tired, but I hope that we can get back to talking about awards in terms of which movies deserve it the most, not which movies are an affront to all that is good. 

We have an outstanding lineup of movies in our first category, so that's nice.

Best Animated Feature
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot

Who Will Win: The highly acclaimed The Wild Robot has been dominating the animation-specific industry awards and the director, Chris Sanders, seems to be a popular figure in their community. It helps that the movie continues down the trail blazed by Puss in Boots: The Last Wish with a striking visual style that differentiates it from a "typical" CG-animated film.

You might think that Inside Out 2, which was the highest grossing film of the last year (animated or not), could upset. However, the possible dark horse winner is actually Flow, the dreamlike Latvian fable that made surprising inroads with American audiences. It even cracked the Best International Feature category - good thing that one is no longer called "Foreign Language Film" since Flow has no spoken dialogue at all and it would have made for a weird eligibility issue. 

My Choice: Any of these movies would be a deserving winner, but I have to go with (the) Flow. 

Best Documentary Feature
Black Box Diaries
No Other Land
Porcelain War
Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat
Sugarcane

Who Will Win: The drama in this category is a lot less salacious, but arguably more important. No Other Land is a collaboration between two journalists, the Israeli Yuval Abraham and the Palestinian Basel Adra, that chronicles the cruel displacement of Palestinians on the West Bank. Despite being acclaimed all over the world and nominated for an Oscar, it still has yet to find a distributor in the United States, meaning that it can only be seen at special events in big cities or (presumably) the streaming platform used by Academy members. 

None of these distributors seemed interested in taking advantage of the movie's worldwide acclaim and topical nature, despite knowing that it would almost certainly turn a minor profit. Make no mistake, this is how you ban a movie under capitalism. This subject matter isn't a slam dunk at the Oscars, either. It would be much easier to go with another movie about the ongoing war in Ukraine like Porcelain War. However, I'm cautiously optimistic that the circumstances are just right for it to win and I'll outline some reasons.

First, the Academy's membership is growing more and more international. Movies in other languages getting into Best Picture, which was once very rare, is now a regular occurrence. That means many voters are from countries that aren't as invested in Israel's violence as the United States. Second, the bravery of Yuval Abraham standing up to his own country to do what's right must be inspiring to some of the Jewish members of the Academy. Third, the distributor issue must be chilling for all the creative types in Hollywood. No one wants their movie suppressed because the ruling class doesn't want the public exposed to a certain point of view. 

Nobody in the Academy reads this, but just in case...please don't screw this up.

My Choice: You didn't think any of that was going to stop me from seeing it, did you? A banned film is merely a challenge and it will take more than that to deter an obsessive movie guy. I was happy to sail the high seas and watch it myself. Truthfully, I found Black Box Diaries very moving and in most other years, I'd be rooting for that one. But everything going on with No Other Land is just too important. The Academy has a chance to use its platform to defy their industry's suppression of this brilliant film. It would be an extraordinary moment and I really hope they meet it.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Jacques Audiard for Emilia Perez
Greg Kwedar and Clint Bentley for Sing Sing
James Magnold and Jay Cocks for A Complete Unknown
RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes for Nickel Boys
Peter Straughan for Conclave

Who Will Win: The Writer's Guild went with Nickel Boys, which was a surprise. It does make sense - the original novel is considered a difficult one to adapt and Ross and Barnes took a very outside the box approach. But once the other members of the Academy get involved, I think the result will be different. Conclave is one of the strongest Best Picture nominees and it will almost certainly walk away with at least one major win. Given how competitive the acting categories are, this is its best chance.

My Choice: Sing Sing. Nothing else here felt so effortless and natural, to the point where you might wonder if there was a screenplay at all.

Best Original Screenplay
Sean Baker for Anora
Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold for The Brutalist
Jesse Eisenberg for A Real Pain
Coralie Fargeat for The Substance
Tim Fehlbaum, Moritz Bender, and Alex David for September 5

Who Will Win: The voters in this category often go against the grain, but in this case Anora is right up their alley and it's the strongest film in the group when it comes to overall nominations. Sean Baker already has the Writer's Guild award, so we know they're into it. Some folks are predicting a win by A Real Pain and I'm not sure where that's coming from. I liked the movie, but it hasn't generated the kind of acclaim that you typically need to pull it off.

My Choice: The Substance doesn't have enough actual dialogue to be a real contender for this (a lot of its best scenes are almost if not completely silent), but nothing in the movie feels wasted and the escalating mayhem unfolds at a thrilling pace.

Best Supporting Actress
Monica Barbaro in A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande in Wicked
Felicity Jones in The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini in Conclave
Zoe Saldana in Emilia Perez

Who Will Win: Zoe Saldana is the only one who has emerged unscathed from all the Emilia Perez drama and is now the only real shot it has in one of the major categories. It doesn't hurt that she is at the center of the movie's most popular song. It's been accused of category fraud but that rarely hurts the nominee even if it looks tacky to the public.

My Choice: Ariana Grande. I'm as surprised as anyone else, but she was genuinely hilarious and made the dim-witted, egotistical Glinda somehow still likeable.

Best Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov in Anora
Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain
Edward Norton in A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce in The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong in The Apprentice

Who Will Win: Kieran Culkin has been steamrolling through this awards season for his uncomfortably realistic performance as the charismatic but obviously unstable Benji from A Real Pain. Most people know someone like this, which is what makes the empathy and cringe comedy of that movie as effective as it is. This one is definitely category fraud, he's obviously a lead and the whole movie revolves around him. But like I said before, these complaints never really go anywhere.

My Choice: I would pick Guy Pearce as the loud, arrogant industrialist from The Brutalist. He was a force of nature as a uniquely American type of asshole.

Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo in Wicked
Karla Sofia Gascon in Emilia Perez
Mikey Madison in Anora
Demi Moore in The Substance
Fernanda Torres in I'm Still Here

Who Will Win: This category is by far the toughest to predict this year....and that's still after one nominee had a total meltdown and guaranteed her own loss. History is being made this year with the nomination of Karla Sofia Gascon, the first openly trans person to compete in the acting categories. Unfortunately, not long after she was nominated, Gascon had a major "milkshake duck" moment that made headlines for weeks. A win for her was already unlikely given the tough competition this year, but now it's completely out of reach.

What's left is a very tight three-way competition. Cynthia Erivo would win if the award were for singing, but that movie didn't give her a chance to do the kind of work that could compete with Moore, Madison, and Torres.

Demi Moore is the likely winner. Her towering performance as an aging actress cast aside and driven to desperation by her shallow industry carries the weight of generations of women who have struggled in Hollywood. If it were any other profession, I'm not sure the movie would have gotten this far. That's not to say that it isn't broadly applicable - her already famous insecure meltdown in front of the bathroom mirror draws from feelings that just about everyone is familiar with...and that are constantly forced upon women.

Then there's Mikey Madison, who has won a fair amount of precursor awards herself and could be propelled to the top if Anora starts sweeping the other awards. She was originally considered the front-runner until Moore surprised everyone by winning at the Golden Globes. At this point, pushing her aside for the much younger Madison would be a little distasteful. If you want to piss off Anora's die-hard fans, tell them that Madison winning completely validates the social commentary of The Substance. I've done it and their defensive reactions are pretty funny.

I'm Still Here getting into Best Picture was a surprise, and it has benefited the most from the exposure that comes with a nomination. A lot of people are just seeing the highly acclaimed Brazilian film now and Torres herself has a gentle, unassuming personality. She has yet to compete directly against Moore or Madison so it's hard to know what to expect. The fact that it was the last nominee to get "discovered" by the voters combined with some genre bias against The Substance might lead to a big surprise on Oscar night. 

If I'm being honest, my gut says Torres will win. But my gut isn't always right, so I'm following what the data suggests and keeping Moore for the "official" prediction. The Screen Actors Guild win probably sealed it. Probably.

My Choice: At the 1968 Oscars, there was a tie for Best Actress, meaning that both Katharine Hepburn and Barbra Streisand each took home a statue. It hasn't happened since, but since I can write anything I want in this section, I'd love to see both Moore and Torres win somehow. You can throw in Mikey Madison if there's another statue lying around, she was great too.

Best Actor
Adrien Brody in The Brutalist
Timothee Chalamet in A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo in Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes in Conclave
Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice

Who Will Win: Not as wild as Best Actress, but still pretty close. 

Some twenty years after becoming the youngest ever Best Actor winner for The Pianist, Adrien Brody finds himself likely to win again as another Holocaust survivor in a movie with "ist" at the end of its title. Never hurts to have a specialty, I guess. He anchors this massive 3.5 hour movie and gets lots of capital-A acting as his character goes through just about every emotion possible. 

Close behind is Timothee Chalamet, who managed to capture Bob Dylan's enigmatic and supercilious vibe while also singing and playing the guitar himself. He ended up winning at the SAG awards, which means he is within striking distance of pulling this off. Still, the Academy at large is reluctant to reward young actors like him, particularly if they've achieved "heartthrob" status. Leonardo DiCaprio had to lose five or six times before he finally won, so I don't imagine Chalamet winning so early in his career. 

My Choice: Colman Domingo. I wish Sing Sing had done better during this awards season, because he was great in that movie and really deserves this.

Best Director
Jacques Audiard for Emilia Perez
Sean Baker for Anora
Brady Corbet for The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat for The Substance
James Magnold for A Complete Unknown

Who Will Win: Most of us Oscar nerds started the season thinking Brady Corbet had this in the bag. The Brutalist is a huge, visually stunning movie that somehow only cost $10 million. The guy is doing something right, that's for sure. If the Emilia Perez drama had gone differently, Jacques Audiard might be the front-runner but like his lead actress, he's said some really dumb things. Good thing foot-in-mouth disease isn't contagious or Zoe Saldana might have been in trouble.

If you've followed my predictions over the years, you know what's coming. The Director's Guild award went to Sean Baker, which means it's almost a certainty he gets the Oscar too. This is a predictor that's wrong maybe once a generation. Anora may not be as large as some of its competition but he's got a directorial vision that validates the "auteur theory." His movies are distinctly his own in a way that's instantly recognizable when you've seen a few of them.

My Choice: Sean Baker is a great director and I'll be happy to see him win. That said, I've got to go with Coralie Fargeat. The Substance is a wild experience that just wouldn't hit as hard without her unique sensibilities. I'll be first in line for whatever she does next.

Best Picture
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Perez
I'm Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked

Who Will Win: There are ten nominees here, but this awards season has been dominated by discussion of just one of them - Emilia Perez. The internet hates it and critics were lukewarm, but the film industry loves it and gave it an impressive 13 nominations. While it's already a historic movie thanks to Karla Sofia Gascon's nomination, trans commentators say it indulges in dated story tropes and stereotypes that are best left in the past (brilliant lyrics like this did little to persuade them otherwise). What's ironic is that part of the reason for its success is sympathy for trans people being targeted by Emperor Pissbaby. The Academy trying to stand up for trans people by celebrating a movie that they detest is just so on brand. I Saw the TV Glow was right there, you guys.

Best Picture is decided by a preferential ballot that asks the members to rank all the nominees. This tends to work against really polarizing films, since getting ranked as the worst by too many members dilutes its overall average. However, it doesn't always turn out that way. The obvious analogue is Green Book, a surprise winner in 2018 that the internet dragged for months. In that case, I think the backlash contributed to the win - our whole electoral process in the United States is driven by the desire to upset certain people on the internet, why would the Academy be an exception? It could very well happen again, but Green Book is not a perfect comparison.

The presumed winner that year, Roma, was a Spanish-language film acquired by Netflix, two factors that hurt it with the important old-fuddy-duddy demographic of the voters. Surprisingly enough, both of those things apply to Emilia Perez as well. Another advantage Green Book had was that, hackneyed racial commentary aside, it had genuine warmth and sentimentality that helped the voters get attached to it. Emilia Perez won the industry over with its boldness and unique directorial vision, not because of any emotional attachment. So while it's far from certain, my hesitant guess is that enough voters will see constant negative headlines about the movie's retrograde storyline and Gascon's social media shenanigans and decide that it's just not worth all the trouble. But if it doesn't win, what will?

As someone who is ride or die with the horror genre, I can tell you that our community is incredibly proud of The Substance. To see such a confrontational, blood-drenched, absolutely uncompromising horror movie get this far has been great. But as a longtime Oscars analyst, I can also tell you it's not going to win. This genre still has a steep uphill battle for awards like this. Dune: Part Two is science-fiction, which also has a tough time outside of the technical categories. Nickel Boys has to be the most experimental art film nominated for Best Picture since Terence Malick's The Tree of Life. Definitely not for everyone. A Complete Unknown was nominated seemingly out of habit, but these musician biopics almost never actually win. Wicked has a serious problem with bloat, which means it suffers when compared to the stage musical, which tells the entire story in the same amount of time the movie needs just for the first half.

If I'm Still Here was in English, it might be unbeatable. Even without that, I hesitate to underestimate it. Parasite's win means we always have to consider this possibility, but for now homemade (or British) movies still have some advantage. The Brutalist is a throwback to Old Hollywood grandiosity, but everyone involved with the movie who is not named Adrien Brody has struggled to get traction for whatever reason. For a while, I thought Conclave would be a good consensus winner. Most people like it even if it's not really anyone's favorite. It also won the SAG award for Best Ensemble, so it's definitely got a shot.

However, it looks like the true consensus winner is actually Anora. I've been surprised to see this unfold since it struck me as more of a film buff movie than an awards movie, but the Writers, Directors, and Producers Guilds have all given it their top honor. And why not? It's funny, thoughtful, moving, and just very entertaining. It's a win the Academy could feel good about, unlike a certain other movie I'm sick of talking about. 

So after all that, I predict Anora will win Best Picture, with a small chance for an upset by Conclave. This was a rough one, folks.

My Choice: The Substance > I'm Still Here > Anora > Conclave > Nickel Boys > Dune: Part Two > The Brutalist > Wicked > Emilia Perez > A Complete Unknown.

Top Ten Films of 2024

If I can fill out this top ten list earlier in the year, I consider it a very good year for movies. This time, I didn't have a full list of ten until just a few days ago. Does that make it a bad year? Not really...maybe a little weaker than I would have expected, but there was plenty of interesting stuff to see. I feel the need to assure everyone that I do in fact watch other movies besides horror and animation. I can't help if it they've been outperforming most of the other genres when it comes to bold, innovative work full of ideas and resonant themes. 

Speaking of horror, the only silver lining I can think of for this year's miserable presidential election, where a majority of people looked back on the chaos and corruption of Orange Caligula's first term and said "I want some more" like a bunch of really dumb Oliver Twists, is that the genre is about to get another major shot in the arm. Have you noticed the wave of pregnancy-themed horror since the end of Roe v. Wade? That's only the beginning, and it leads nicely into the point I wanted to make.

A lesson I've taken from 2024 is that it's time to rethink how we engage with the world around us and work towards better things. We've defined activism and advocacy simply by how much time we spend getting stressed about bullshit little teapot tempests that don't last the week. The day by day immersion, personified by the 24 hour news networks, is a failure...at least in terms of what we wanted from it. If you're talking about really changing hearts and minds, it doesn't come from yelling at people on Twitter....but it might come from art. The numerous fascinating movies that came out this year about the trans experience (more on that in a while) have more potential for improving things than retweeting zingers that you like. Maybe it's time to back away from that kind of stuff and more towards the potential of great art. A wise man once said, "you don't have to attend every argument you're invited to." With that, let's get started.

10. Union 
Working class solidarity will be essential to getting through the next several years in the United States. A good case study is this compelling observational documentary about the grassroots effort to start a labor union at a huge Staten Island warehouse owned by Amazon, one of the largest employers on the planet. Thousands of people who work in just that one location are underpaid and overworked and the uphill campaign is started by Chris Smalls, who was promptly fired. As they make inroads with convincing their coworkers to vote for the union, Amazon pulls all manner of dirty tricks and legal nonsense to maintain the status quo of abusing their employees while Jeff Bezos spends his fortune on conspicuously phallic rockets. The filmmakers ultimately had to distribute the movie themselves as too many companies were reluctant to damage their own relationship with Amazon. You won’t see this one on Prime Video anytime soon, but a google search will do the trick.

9. Hit Man
Half of this consistently charming movie is a biopic of the undercover operative Gary Johnson (played very well by Glen Powell), and the other half is a twisty romantic drama inspired by his life but definitely fictional. While working as a college professor, Johnson makes some extra money by assisting the police with his technical expertise, but the sudden suspension of the dirty cop Jasper (an oily but surprisingly likeable performance from Austin Amelio) leads to him having to play the “hit man” role to ensnare those conspiring to commit murder. He turns out to be surprisingly good at it, at least until he begins an ill-advised romance with a suspect (Adria Arjona). Knowledge of the true story won’t help you here, but the sometimes disarming storyline always works thanks to Richard Linklater’s skill at plotting and dialogue.

8. Memoir of a Snail
A weird and poignant Australian stop-motion animated film about a girl named Grace (voiced by Sarah Snook), who is obsessed with snails. Her already difficult childhood gets bleaker when she is separated from her beloved twin Gilbert (Kodi Smit-McPhee) and must try to find meaning in life without him. As with his previous film, Mary and Max, Adam Elliot is able to create a totally unique mixture of morbid, almost grotesque visuals with oddball comedy and surprising warmth. Once you’re on its wavelength, it’s hard to resist. How can you not love a movie where a stop-motion character starts creating stop-motion films of her own?

7. Rebel Ridge
Aaron Pierre gives a cool, commanding performance as the ex-marine Terry, who is accosted by police who steal the money he was carrying to post his cousin’s bail. The premise sounds a bit like a Rambo film, but this is not a guns blazing action movie but a tense drama about Terry struggling against police corruption with only an intrepid court employee (AnnaSophia Robb) on his side. There are a number of other movies that address the rot at the heart of policing in the United States, but Jeremy Saulnier’s skill for finding the little wrinkles of humanity in all of the characters makes it feel extremely convincing. Abuse of civil asset forfeiture laws, which is what allows Terry to be so blatantly robbed, is a real and pervasive issue in America and the film makes a convincing case that money, not racism, is the true reason behind police misconduct and the refusal of the institution to hold itself accountable.

6. Flow
This gorgeous Latvian animated film takes place in a world where humanity has disappeared and animals of all kinds roam the woods. In the aftermath of a catastrophic flood, a lone cat joins with a dog, a capybara, a lemur, and a huge secretarybird to try and keep their heads above water. These are not talking cartoon animals - with a few exceptions, they behave like real animals would. It creates a dreamlike atmosphere that allows viewers to get totally lost in the painterly visuals. There are plenty of messages about tribalism or global warming to interpret here, but the movie’s gentle touch makes it easy to ignore any of that. The lack of dialogue is also useful for international distribution - it attracted a number of viewers in the United States, an impressive feat for any animated movie that isn’t American or Japanese.

5. Rita
Given how often La Llorona gets mentioned on this blog, it should come as no surprise that I saw Jayro Bustamante's new movie as soon as I possibly could. Sure enough, it's another gorgeous Guatemalan film that blends history and the supernatural in the same way Bustamante did last time, using an infamous state-run orphanage as the setting for a dark fantasy tale. Rita (Giuliana Santa Cruz) ran away from her abusive parents but ended up committed to the place, where she joins a sisterhood of teenage girls who dress like angels and plot to rise up against the cruel adults who run the place. This was a real place that was teeming with heinous abuse and corruption and the resulting scandal led to large protests and the arrests of several high-ranking government officials. Opinions will vary on whether it was necessary to depict the girls as taking on traits of various fantasy creatures, but it’s an interesting way to convey the high stakes of the situation and lends itself well to Bustamante’s already prodigious storytelling talent.

4. Anora
Sean Baker's interest in those on the margins of society continues with the story of a young New York stripper (Mikey Madison in a breakthrough performance) who meets Vanya (Mark Eydelshteyn), the son of a powerful Russian family. Anora agrees to his impulsive marriage proposal and dreams of a life of luxury, but once the news reaches Vanya’s family in Mother Russia, all hell breaks loose in a sharp deconstruction of fairy tale romantic comedies. The movie is bursting with life thanks to Baker’s ability to effortlessly shift from screwball comedy to affecting drama, particularly in the film’s centerpiece around the halfway point - a scene of prolonged mayhem and shouting that goes on for at least 20 minutes. The story and characters are prioritized over social commentary, but it’s a moving examination of how the careless whims of the rich and powerful can wreak havoc in the lives of the less fortunate people around them.

3. Sing Sing
The effortlessly moving story of the Rehabilitation Through the Arts program in New York’s Sing Sing prison. John “Divine G” Whitfield (Colman Domingo) is a founding member of the program, an innocent man waiting for a parole hearing that could set him free. The group of inmates collaborates on a wacky original play that tries to incorporate all of the different ideas they came up with during brainstorming sessions. Anyone who has seen other movies about life in prison will be taken aback by how different this film’s approach is, treating everyone involved as genuine human beings rather than just depicting the place as a hotbed of savage violence. The impressive naturalism is achieved by the use of 16mm film and the fact that the only career actors in the cast are Domingo and Paul Raci as the play’s director. The rest of the cast is made up of former inmates playing themselves, people who really did participate in this program. One of them, Clarence Maclin, is even expected to get a Best Supporting Actor nomination in a few weeks. The result is an authentically uplifting look at people finding ways to hold onto their humanity in an environment determined to take it from them.

2. The Substance
A gonzo, swing for the fences body horror film starring Demi Moore as Elizabeth Sparkle, an aging actress so desperate to save her fading career that she is willing to try a black market drug. “The substance” allows her to temporarily live as a younger version of herself (Margaret Qualley) but it’s a messy process that’s difficult to maintain, so it’s only a matter of time until something goes wrong. And go wrong it does as this thrilling movie barrels towards its absolutely insane conclusion. Even though it all borders on the absurd, there is a genuine look at the pain women feel in a society that values them only for their looks, mostly thanks to Moore’s exceptional performance. With all the fearsome body horror on display (seriously, the makeup effects are breathtaking), one of the most powerful scenes is just Elizabeth standing in front of a mirror, looking great but only able to see flaws, being destroyed by insecurity.

1. I Saw the TV Glow
A beautiful, haunting masterpiece that felt even more important by the end of this year.  In 1996, a young boy named Owen (Justice Smith) befriends the slightly older Maddy (Brigette Lundy-Paine), who introduces him to her favorite show - “The Pink Opaque.” The experience of discovering the show and bonding with Maddy causes Owen to have realizations about himself that he doesn’t even have the vocabulary to describe. Like Jane Schoenbrun’s previous film, We’re All Going to the World’s Fair, this is primarily a story about growing up transgender and the terror of having to deny your true self out of (justified) fear of the outside world’s reaction. While it’s never definitively stated, it’s much less subtle this time and the movie is meant to be experienced as a metaphor - a completely literal interpretation of the storyline will just leave you confused. Every element of the film is rendered with impressive skill, from the striking neon production design to the meticulous recreation of 1990s young adult television. 

This film is at the forefront of numerous stories about trans people and their experiences - Emilia Perez, The People's Joker, Carnage for Christmas, and others. I'm not an expert on their struggles and so it would be dumb to try and gauge how well any of these movies capture the reality, but I do know a thing or two about how movies communicate meaning. I Saw the TV Glow is able to convey intense, personal emotions even to people who don't have the experiences behind them and even without a straightforward storyline. It's a formidable achievement, one that might even save lives in the coming years (if you live in Florida, you should probably buy a copy now while you still can). 

Honorable Mentions
11. The Wild Robot
12. Love Lies Bleeding
13. Thelma
14. Nosferatu
15. Wicked Little Letters
16. Riddle of Fire
17. The Contestant
18. Longlegs
19. Hundreds of Beavers
20. Lowlifes

Good luck in 2025, everyone. We'll need it.

Covid Horror: The First Wave

What a difference a few years makes. If an alien were to arrive on Earth today, it would take them a while to figure out that a deadly disease had terrorized the entire planet for 2020 and most of 2021. Despite being a society obsessed with grievance over the wrongs perpetrated against us in the past, this is one unpleasant subject that we've decided to try our best to forget about. Like the villain at the end of a slasher movie, Covid-19 is still out there and people still get sick from it although it's now treated as something like pneumonia - it sucks to get it, but it won't kill most people (except you really don't want to end up with "long covid," a wrinkle that we still don't seem to know anything about). 

That impulse to throw what may be the defining event of the decade down the memory hole is a response to severe trauma, but history shows that this never really works. 1950s America tried its hardest to forget the horrors of World War II, but it still emerged in the infamous (and brilliant) comics like "Tales from the Crypt" and "The Vault of Horror." In that tradition, we've already seen some horror films addressing what we all just went through, some arriving much sooner than expected. They can yield a lot of insight about how we're reckoning with all that's happened, so Halloween is a good time to look at them.

The movies in this short list are the ones that address the plague directly and have it as part of the story, rather than horror films with stories that can serve as metaphors for it like When Evil Lurks or Halloween Ends. And just to clarify early on, I know that "pandemic" is the scientifically appropriate word to describe what happened, but it's also antiseptic and doesn't capture the horror of it all in the way that "plague" does, so that's what I'll be using.

Host (2020) and Dashcam (2022)

Any discussion of horror addressing the Covid era has to start with Rob Savage, who coordinated a team of quarantined friends to create the found footage film Host only months into the plague. 

This ghost story debuted on streaming in July 2020 and is depicted entirely as a videochat meeting, an example of the “screenlife” subgenre codified by Unfriended. Bored during the quarantine, a group of friends decide to conduct an online seance. One of them isn’t very respectful of the forces being dealt with and wouldn’t you know it, some evil entity begins terrorizing them. The limitations involved are apparent but it's hard not to be amazed at how quickly they turned this around and were able to work together so well despite never gathering in person. 

Savage outdid himself with his next film, the bananas adventure of an obnoxious right-wing insult comic (Annie Hardy) who visits an old friend (Amar Chadha-Patel) in the UK at the height of the plague. She’s also a streamer and the whole film is told through her channel, including her encounter with an elderly woman who seems to be infected by…something. Through all the pandemonium, insipid and bigoted messages pour in from her viewers. It seems Hardy was playing herself and is a genuine anti-vaccine nut, which led to tedious "discourse" about whether it's acceptable for someone like that to appear in a movie. I have no clue whether Hardy realized she was being made of, but it's pretty sad that so many viewers can't discern a movie's point of view without the director stepping into frame and saying "this is bad." This is a hilarious, scathing depiction of the madness of 2020s America but in the end, it’s mostly background for a traditional (although very well-executed) found footage monster movie.

Safer at Home (2021)

Another screenlife film that takes place a few years into the future, but in this case the danger of Covid remained as intense as it was in 2020. A group of quarantined friends gather on a video conference to try and recreate their Las Vegas trips of the past, complete with drugs. But the merriment leads to disaster after tensions emerge and a startling accident changes everything. An ambulance might have been useful but is quickly dismissed by the characters for dubious reasons. The best scenes are able to evoke the despair of living under the cloud of a deadly plague, but even three years later, it's already dated. It borrows a lot from Unfriended except the clever writing, asking viewers to suspend quite a bit of disbelief up until the final unintentionally hilarious twist. 

Machination (2022)

We covered this one in the Horror Around the World series, but it's so good that we might as well talk about it again. Most of the movies on this list use the plague as an interesting backdrop for a ghost story or some other supernatural tale, but this Maltese film goes straight for the horror of isolation and mental illness. It was an anxious time for all of us, but I think we all knew at least one person for whom it was the absolute worst possible scenario. Someone already prone to intense nervousness who would be so shaken by the onset of Covid that they might never believe it was safe to go outside again. Maria (Steffi Thake) is an extreme germophobe afraid to set foot outside once the disease starts to spread, leaving her alone in a small house with her demons. It’s far too realistic for comfort as Thake’s intense performance can convince a viewer that they are really watching someone lose their mind.

There's one scene in particular that I just love. Maria wakes up late one morning and has two messages on her phone. The first is from her annoying boss wondering why she hasn't been eager to resume work in dangerous conditions. The second is from her conspiracy theorist brother rambling about how evil the vaccines are. It's the last straw and she smashes her phone, severing the final connection to the outside world. I think most of us wanted to do the same at least once during that whole ordeal. 

Sick (2022)

Kevin Williamson retooled his famous Scream screenplay for the quarantine era. Perhaps that’s an oversimplification - the self-referential humor is absent but there are still plenty of scenes involving masked men with knives. At the height of quarantine, Parker (Gideon Aldon) and her best friend Miri (Beth Million) hunker down in an isolated lake house only to encounter some uninvited guests. There were a lot of intriguing directions a premise like this could go in but the movie doesn’t seem very interested in that and is surprisingly tedious. I did wonder if this was just a completely generic slasher until Covid presented an opportunity to give it a unique twist, but a reason for it emerges towards the end as it plays a key role in a late reveal.

The Harbinger (2022)

This one comes to closer than any of the others to capturing the pure existential terror of life under Covid. At the height of the lockdown, the desperate Mavis (Emily Davis) begs her childhood friend Monique (Gabby Beans) to break quarantine protocol and come to her aid. What Monique discovers is that Mavis is being plagued by terrible nightmares that make her nearly impossible to wake up, sometimes going on for days, and that this is something of a bizarre contagion itself. 

A nightmare that won’t end is as appropriate a summation of that era as you're ever likely to find. It's themes run very deep, sometimes at risk of overpowering the movie at large. The dream demon wearing a plague doctor mask can represent Covid itself, mental illness, the disinformation that flourished during that time, the societal indifference to mass death, and who knows what else. It’s not a perfect movie, but future scholars researching the early 2020s will find a wealth of material to analyze. 

So that's all for now, but I wouldn't be surprised if more films come along that react in some way to what we all went through during Covid. I have a hunch it may drift more towards metaphor rather than more direct depictions, so perhaps at some point I should go through a few of those too. Happy Halloween!

The 24 Hour Setlist Returns for 2024

Here's my page for this year! 

Remember when I did this in 2015? I almost did it in 2016 too but got sick right before Game Day so I had to bail. Well, I'm giving it another shot and you can find many more details on that page. This one is mostly here to host the new setlist, which was curated with much more care than the 2015 one where I just scrolled through the game and lined up songs without thinking too hard about it. I've tried to build in the brief loading time between songs into the overall timing, which helped the 2015 marathon go way over 24 hours (although it wasn't as much to blame as the constant streaming trouble).

I won't be streaming this one, which I know might be disappointing. But then again, hardly anyone watched it last time. Honestly, I think most people just donated and then forgot about it, but that's ok! It's for a good cause and I could theoretically get away with not doing it at all, but come on - I can't resist that challenge. So here are all 254 songs! Can you find some of the little easter eggs in terms of placement? Enjoy and if you can, please donate!

Intro:
1. Queen - "We Will Rock You"
2. Twisted Sister - "I Wanna Rock"

Phase I
3. Red Hot Chili Peppers - "Snow (Hey Oh)"
4. The Ramones - "I Wanna Be Sedated"
5. Weezer - "Say It Ain't So"
6. Cyndi Lauper - "Time After Time"

7. Yeah Yeah Yeahs - "Maps"
8. Warren Zevon - "Werewolves of London"
9. Social Distortion - "I Was Wrong"
10. 3 Doors Down - "Kryptonite"
11. Bad Religion - "Sorrow"
12. Foo Fighters - "My Hero"
13. Nirvana - "Come As You Are"
14. Tom Petty - "Free Fallin'"
15. REM - "Losing My Religion"
16. Ozzy Osbourne - "Crazy Train"
17. A Flock of Seagulls - "I Ran (So Far Away)" 
18. Duran Duran - "Hungry Like The Wolf"
19. Semi Precious Weapons - "Magnetic Baby"
20. Iggy Pop - "The Passenger"
21. AC/DC - "Highway to Hell"
22. Finger Eleven - "Paralyzer"
23. Scorpions - "No One Like You"
24. Slipknot - "Before I Forget"
25. Blue Oyster Cult - "Burnin' For You"
26. Lynyrd Skynyrd - "Free Bird"
27. The Flaming Lips - "Yoshimi vs. The Pink Robots"
28. Dropkick Murphys - "I'm Shipping Up to Boston"
29. Queens of the Stone Age - "No One Knows"
30. Silversun Pickups - "Lazy Eye"
31. Harry Chapin - "Cat's in the Cradle"
32. Eagle Eye Cherry - "Save Tonight"
33. Bon Jovi - "It's My Life"
34. Fine Young Cannibals - "She Drives Me Crazy"
35. The Zutons - "Valerie"
36. The Offspring - "Self Esteem"
37. Squeeze - "Cool For Cats"
38. Roxette - "The Look"
39. Kaiser Chiefs - "Ruby"
40. Sonic Youth - "Kool Thing"
41. Dream Theater - "Pull Me Under"
42. Iron Butterfly - "In A Gadda Da Vida"
43. Slydigs - "Light the Fuse"
44. Black Sabbath - "N.I.B."
45. Linkin Park - "What I've Done"
46. The Automatic - "Monster"
47. Ray Parker, Jr. - "Ghostbusters"
48. The Coral - "Dreaming Of You"
49. No Doubt - "Don't Speak"
50. The Who - "Behind Blue Eyes"
51. Pretty Girls Make Graves - "Something Bigger, Something Brighter"
52. Deep Purple - "Smoke on the Water"

Phase II
53. Whitesnake - "Here I Go Again"
54. Blue Oyster Cult - "Don't Fear the Reaper"
55. Twisted Sister - "We're Not Gonna Take It"
56. Freezepop - "Less Talk, More Rokk"
57. Anvil - "Metal on Metal"
58. Tenacious D - "Rock Your Socks"
59. Kutless - "The Feeling"
60. Black Tide - "Warriors of Time" 
61. Billy Idol - "White Wedding"
62. Green Day - "Boulevard of Broken Dreams"
63. Red Hot Chili Peppers - "Under the Bridge"
64. David Bowie - "Space Oddity"
65. Flobots - "Handlebars"
66. Megadeth - "A Tout le Monde"
67. Creedence Clearwater Revival - "Who'll Stop the Rain"
68. John Denver - "Take Me Home, Country Roads"
69. Rush - "Tom Sawyer"
70. Alice in Chains - "Man in the Box"
71. The Doors - "Break On Through (To the Other Side)"
72. Soft Cell - "Tainted Love"
73. The Damned - "Smash It Up" 
74. System of a Down - "Aerials"
75. Staind - "Outside"
76. Depeche Mode - "Policy of Truth"
77. Goo Goo Dolls - "Iris"
78. Yes - "Heart of the Sunrise"
79. Bon Jovi - "You Give Love A Bad Name"
80. Motley Crue - "Kickstart My Heart"
81. Linkin Park - "The Divide"
82. The Offspring - "The Kids Aren't Alright"
83. Riverboat Gamblers - "Don't Bury Me, I'm Still Not Dead"
84. Stan Bush - "The Touch"
85. Pantera - "Cowboys From Hell"
86. Ozzy Osbourne - "Mr. Crowley"
87. The Police - "Every Breath You Take"
88. Bachman-Turner Overdrive - "Takin' Care of Business"
89. Golden Earring - "Radar Love"
90. Robert Palmer - "Bad Case of Loving You"
91. Katrina and the Waves - "Walkin' on Sunshine"
92. The Sounds - "Living in America"
93. Pat Benatar - "Heartbreaker"
94. The Killers - "Somebody Told Me"
95. Harvey Danger - "Flagpole Sitta"
96. Hollywood Undead - "Young"
97. Cold War Kids - "First"
98. Foo Fighters - "Everlong"
99. The White Stripes - "Seven Nation Army"
100. Fuel - "Hemorrhage (In My Hands)"
101. Iron Maiden - "Wasted Years"
102. Black Sabbath - "War Pigs"

Phase III
103. Journey - "Don't Stop Believin'"
104. Toto - "Hold the Line"
105. Survivor - "Eye of the Tiger"
106. The Outfield - "Your Love"
107. Nirvana - "Smells Like Teen Spirit"
108. Alice in Chains - "No Excuses"
109. Creedence Clearwater Revival - "Have You Ever Seen the Rain?"
110. Gin Blossoms - "Hey Jealousy"
111. Fleetwood Mac - "Go Your Own Way"
112. Foreigner - "Cold As Ice"
113. Hootie and the Blowfish - "Let Her Cry"
114. Breaking Benjamin - "Failure"
115. Red Hot Chili Peppers - "Otherside" 
116. Depeche Mode - "Enjoy the Silence"
117. Rush - "Subdivisions"
118. POD - "Youth of the Nation"
119. Rise Against - "Prayer of the Refugee"
120. 3 Doors Down - "It's Not My Time"
121. Lesley Roy - "I'm Gone, I'm Going"
122. Tonic - "If You Could Only See"
123. Kiss - "Detroit Rock City"
124. Dio - "Rainbow in the Dark"
125. HIM - "Wings of a Butterfly"
126. Ghost Hounds - "Ashes to Fire"
127. Bon Jovi - "Living on a Prayer"
128. Ram Jam - "Black Betty"
129. Chicago - "25 or 6 to 4"
130. Tenacious D - "Tribute"
131. Iron Maiden - "Fear of the Dark"
132. Ghost - "Cirice"
133. The Cranberries - "Zombie"
134. The Offspring - "You're Gonna Go Far, Kid"
135. The Clash - "Rock the Casbah"
136. Pat Benatar - "Love is a Battlefield"
137. Asia - "Heat of the Moment"
138. Cutting Crew - "I Just Died In Your Arms"
139. Incubus - "Dig"
140. Muse - "Starlight"
141. Belinda Carlisle - "Heaven Is A Place On Earth"
142. Boston - "More Than A Feeling"
143. Queen - "I Want It All"
144. Billy Joel - "We Didn't Start the Fire"
145. REM - "It's the End of the World As We Know It"
146. Linkin Park - "In the End"
147. Lynyrd Skynyrd - "Simple Man"
148. Nickleback - "How You Remind Me"
149. Tribe - "Outside"
150. The Doors - "People Are Strange"
151. The Killers - "All These Things That I've Done"
152. My Chemical Romance - "Welcome to the Black Parade"

Phase IV
153. Tenacious D - "The Metal"
154. Dio - "Holy Diver"
155. Motorhead - "Ace of Spades"
156. Alestorm - "Shipwrecked"
157. Children of Bodom - "Are You Dead Yet?"
158. Rammstein - "Du Hast"
159. System of a Down - "Spiders"
160. Testament - "Souls of Black"
161. Skid Row - "18 and Life"
162. Ghost - "Mary On A Cross"
164. Nightwish - "Amaranth"
165. Scorpions - "Rock You Like A Hurricane"
166. Anthrax - "Caught in a Mosh"
167. Living Colour - "Cult of Personality"
168. Megadeth - "Holy Wars...The Punishment Due"
169. Judas Priest - "Halls of Valhalla"
170. Dragonforce - "Through the Fire and Flames"
171. Iron Maiden - "Rime of the Ancient Mariner"
172. Alice in Chains - "Would?"
173. Disturbed - "The Sound of Silence"
174. Queen - "The Show Must Go On"
175. Pearl Jam - "Alive"
176. Audioslave - "Like A Stone"
177. Faith No More - "Midlife Crisis"
178. Bang Camaro - "Night Lies"
179. The Protomen - "Light Up the Night"
180. AC/DC - "Thunderstruck"
181. Sweet - "Ballroom Blitz"
182. White Denim - "At Night in Dreams"
183. Jethro Tull - "Aqualung" 
184. Yes - "Roundabout"
185. U2 - "Pride (In the Name of Love)"
186. Dolly Parton - "Jolene"
187. Depeche Mode - "Never Let Me Down Again"
188. Foreigner - "I Want to Know What Love Is"
189. Jefferson Airplane - "Somebody to Love"
190. Shinedown - "Second Chance"
191. Jet - "Are You Gonna Be My Girl?"
192. Billy Joel - "Piano Man"
193. Molly Hatchet - "Flirting with Disaster"
194. Soundgarden - "Superunknown"
195. Temple of the Dog - "Hunger Strike"
196. Incubus - "Pardon Me"
197. Bon Jovi - "Blaze of Glory"
198. Kenny Loggins - "Danger Zone"
199. Silversun Pickups - "Panic Switch"
200. Rise Against - "Give It All"
201. Muse - "Knights of Cydonia"
202. Iron Maiden - "Hallowed Be Thy Name"

Phase V - THE GAUNTLET
203. Europe - "The Final Countdown"
204. My Chemical Romance - "Sing"
205. Queen - "Don't Stop Me Now"
206. Lacuna Coil - "Our Truth"
207. Jimi Hendrix - "All Along the Watchtower"
208. A-ha - "Take On Me"
209. Barenaked Ladies - "One Week"
210. Bon Jovi - "Runaway"
211. Don McLean - "American Pie"
212. Pearl Jam - "Jeremy"
213. Iron Maiden - "Flight of Icarus"
214. Dream Theater - "Metropolis, Pt. 1 - The Miracle and the Sleeper"
215. The Protomen - "This City Made Us"
216. 4 Non Blondes - "What's Going On?"
217. The Cranberries - "Dreams" 
218. Tenacious D - "Master Exploder"
219. Mastodon - "Colony of Birchmen"
220. Sonata Arctica - "Flag in the Ground"
221. System of a Down - "Chop Suey"
222. Pat Benatar - "Invinicble"
223. The Darkness - "I Believe In A Thing Called Love"
224. Heart - "Crazy On You"
225. Bonnie Tyler - "Total Eclipse of the Heart"
226. Aerosmith - "Dream On"
227. Everlife - "Real Wild Child"
228. That Handsome Devil - "Rob the Prez-O-Dent"
229. Styx - "Renegade"
230. The B-52s - "Rock Lobster"
231. The Strokes - "Reptilia"
232. Shaimus - "Like A Fool"
233. Rush - "2112"
234. Kansas - "Carry On Wayward Son"
235. The Isley Brothers - "Shout"
236. Earth, Wind & Fire - "September"
237. David Bowie and Queen - "Under Pressure"
238. Van Halen - "Runnin' With the Devil"
239. Talking Heads - "Psycho Killer"
240. Death of the Cool - "Can't Let Go"
241. Janis Joplin - "Piece Of My Heart"
242. Counting Crows - "Mr. Jones"
243. Blues Traveler - "Run Around"
244. Boston - "Smokin'"
245. Bent Knee - "These Hands"
246. Ohio Players - "Love Rollercoaster"
247. Soundgarden - "Spoonman"
248. Deep Purple - "Child in Time"
249. Quiet Riot - "Metal Health (Bang Your Head)"
250. Queen - "Bohemian Rhapsody"
251. Iron Maiden - "Run to the Hills"
252. Judas Priest - "Painkiller"

Outro:
253. Queen - "We Are The Champions"
254. Semisonic - "Closing Time"

Dreaming of Rock Band 5

Music games like the Rock Band series were a bright light that burned out too quickly. The whole genre went through an epic boom and bust all in less than a decade and has almost totally vanished. I'm not sure how I stumbled on this, but there was some wiki where people had collaborated on a potential Rock Band 5 setlist, even though Harmonix has said they have no plans for a new game in the series.

Still, all it took was that one pleasant discovery and I was back on my bullshit. I'm not sure why coming up with hypothetical soundtracks for these games has always been so satisfying, but it is. Even though the series had something like 3,000 available songs in the end, there is still so much great music that never made it to the plastic instruments. Here is a list of 84 songs, which was the number of tracks in both Rock Band 2 and 3 and divides very nicely into the seven difficulty groups. It's funny how people always try and have a variety of different genres when they do this but you can always inevitably tell what they really like. This one probably has more metal than would ever make it into one of the games (gotta have room for lightweight hipster songs, after all) and it was definitely done by a singer.

One last note: I avoided bands that were vocal about never wanting to be in any of these games, i.e. Led Zeppelin, Pink Floyd, and a few others. It's more interesting that way, anyhow. Enjoy these images that I mocked up using a spiffy little program that lets you generate your own difficulty rankings that look like they came right out of the game! The only drawback was you can only use the genres that Harmonix used, so the two Eurobeat songs had to be classified as "Pop/Dance/Electronic." They should have added some Eurobeat while they had the chance.

Ter 0 - Warmup

Tier 1 - Apprentice

Tier 2 - Solid

Tier 3 - Moderate

Tier 4 - Challenging

Tier 5 - Nightmare

Tier 6 - Impossible

And one special hidden bonus track!

Oscars 2024 Educated Guesses

If you've read these write-ups of mine before, you might notice a pattern of starting off with criticism of the previous year. Thankfully, that doesn't seem necessary this time. Last year's Oscars were pretty satisfying, with lots of great speeches and a Best Picture victory for a genuine landmark film that absolutely deserved it. There also hasn't been much of the usual angst about the length of the show and there definitely haven't been any misguided attempts to give out participation trophies to blockbusters, given that two of the year's biggest movies are competing in numerous categories.

The "Barbenheimer" phenomenon that has come to define the previous year's film culture is back with a vengeance. Barbie won the good-natured rivalry when it came to box office, but Oppenheimer is clearly poised to do better during this matchup. Despite Barbie's eight total nominations, the movie's fans are deeply upset about how it was dinged in Best Actress and Best Director. It does have the whiff of snobbery, as if the voters didn't want the movie about a child's toy to get too big for its plastic britches. But the reality is these are competitive categories and the Academy's expanded membership has led to more nominations for international films (i.e. Anatomy of a Fall) at the expense of American contenders who seemed like a sure thing.

It's time to get into the categories, starting with one I'm particularly excited about.

Best Animated Feature
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Who Will Win: This past year for animation was so outstanding that I wish this category would follow Best Picture's lead and have ten nominees cause five is not doing it justice. Robot Dreams was a huge surprise given that it's extremely hard to find (best not to ask me how I saw it) and while the voters have better access to the movies, I don't see it getting past these others. Elemental is not in the same league as the rest - it's not bad by any stretch but it's definitely mid-tier Pixar. I love Nimona but the inter-studio drama will probably sink it - Netflix more or less publicly shamed Disney by reviving the production and releasing the film after the mouse house bought Blue Sky Studios and cancelled it for being too gay (and everyone says they're so "woke"). 

That leaves two heavyweights squaring off for the win. Hayao Miyazaki became the only anime filmmaker to win in this category with Spirited Away in 2002 and could very well win again with The Boy and the Heron if anyone is taking his perennial declarations of retirement seriously this time. However, I think the voters will go with the thrilling and insanely innovative Across the Spider-Verse - if the live-action superhero films were even half as fun and artistically daring as this series has been, they wouldn't be bombing so hard at the box office.

My Choice: If I'm not mistaken, there has never been more than one anime film in this category at a time. So the debut of a new Miyazaki joint was probably the kiss of death for Suzume, which was my favorite movie of the year, animated or not. I'm fond of most of these movies but I suppose I would give it to Across the Spider-Verse. It was just so much fun and you want to encourage that.

Best Documentary
20 Days in Mariupol
Bobi Wine: The People's President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill A Tiger

Who Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol is a journalistic masterpiece about the Russian siege of a Ukrainian city that I put off watching for quite a while because of how brutal I feared it was going to be. Sadly, I was right - it's a nightmare of mass graves, bombed hospitals, and sobbing parents. The main issue that could work against this film is that many Academy members may not even want to watch it. If that happens, the Tunisian story of a family reunited in Four Daughters will be the likely beneficiary. The others are lesser known and their nominations were generally unexpected. However, Navalny's win (rest in peace) last year demonstrated that the membership was eager to stick it to Vladimir Putin and the director will surely give a hell of a speech. If a similar film about Gaza comes along in a year or two, that will be a very different dynamic.

A little bit of trivia - there is not a single American film in this lineup. It's led to a lot of grousing and weird nationalism on the part of Hollywood big shots. Once again, everyone says they're so liberal...but if they are, it's really just by Boomer standards.

My Choice: I hope that 20 Days in Mariupol helps to get certain people convicted of war crimes at some point. It deserves the win, even if I won't be watching it again.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach for Barbie
Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest
Cord Jefferson for American Fiction
Tony McNamara for Poor Things
Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer

Who Will Win: The first of several Barbenheimer matchups but this category is just a slugfest in general packed with hugely acclaimed films. Gerwig and Baumbach originally wanted to submit their work in the Original Screenplay category, but the Academy ruled that even though there's never been a real "story" to go with Barbie dolls, a movie about them is still an adaptation. Between that and the movie whiffing in Best Actress and Best Director, its biggest fans are pretty salty despite the overall eight nominations. It's unlikely that the voters will let Greta Gerwig leave empty handed given the enormous financial and cultural success of the movie, but it's not a done deal. I could see a scenario where all the others win except The Zone of Interest, which is so light on dialogue that I doubt people think much about the screenplay when giving it awards consideration.

My Choice: I would love to see the hilarious, cantankerous screenplay for American Fiction pull off a win. What can I say, I just love flippancy.

Best Original Screenplay
Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik for May December
Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer for Maestro
David Hemingson for The Holdovers
Celine Song for Past Lives
Justine Triet and Arthur Harari for Anatomy of a Fall

Who Will Win: There's a lot of action on this side of the writing categories too. Before the nominations were announced, I would have guessed either The Holdovers or Past Lives for their memorable character arcs and the unique voices of their writers, but then Anatomy of a Fall overperformed in a major way. The Academy members are clearly big fans and this seems like its best chance for a win.

My Choice: It's the least likely to win, but my film buff traits made me a perfect match for May December's razor sharp critique of the sleaziness that animates most "true crime" adaptations. Some of the members have likely worked on the movies and TV shows being mocked, so I doubt they were as amused.

Best Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks in The Color Purple
America Ferrera in Barbie
Jodie Foster in Nyad
Da'Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers

Who Will Win: Da'vine Joy Randolph has been unstoppable during the preliminary awards, to the point where nobody else has gotten any traction. As the wise but troubled cook at a prestigious boarding school, she gave the textbook definition of a great supporting performance, leaving a strong impression on the overall movie despite only appearing in a handful of scenes. At this point, the other four nominees are mostly just for the sake of tradition.

My Choice: When America Ferrera turned up as one of the nominees, a lot of people were surprised. I wasn't. Her performance as the frustrated designer at Mattel grounds the movie and she's at the center of its most memorable scene. Her monologue about double standards faced by women will almost certainly be the clip used to introduce her. 

Best Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction
Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey, Jr. in Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling in Barbie
Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things

Who Will Win: In a movie with an enormous ensemble cast, it was Robert Downey Jr. who stood out the most as the vindictive self-absorbed bureaucrat Lewis Strauss. After years of playing Iron Man, a role he could do in his sleep, this was a major reminder to everyone just how good of an actor he is. It's not a "comeback" story because he didn't go anywhere, but the thought process is a little similar.

My Choice: Um, excuse me? Where is Snoop the dog from Anatomy of a Fall? Seriously? All of those other nominations but he gets snubbed? Outrageous.

I think Downey is a good match for Christopher Nolan's style and I hope they work together again. He deserves the win but I do have a soft spot for Sterling K. Brown, who gave some absolutely priceless line deliveries in American Fiction.

Best Actress
Annette Bening in Nyad
Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Huller in Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan in Maestro
Emma Stone in Poor Things

Who Will Win: The supporting categories are pretty well sewn up, but this is where it starts to get closer. As the Osage oil heiress Mollie Burkhart, whose own husband is part of a conspiracy to murder her family and steal their wealth, Lily Gladstone is crucial to the emotional power of Killers of the Flower Moon. She has been splitting the preliminary awards pretty evenly with Emma Stone as the eccentric and headstrong Frankenstein-esque creation Bella from Poor Things. If we're being honest, it's a much more interesting role than the aspiring actress part from La La Land that won Stone her first Oscar.

Gladstone is the first Native American to compete in this category and a victory would bring about the same widespread elation that Michelle Yeoh's similarly historic win did last year. Stone herself has made it pretty obvious that she's rooting for Gladstone and the good vibes (and press) would be hard to resist. Hollywood's own checkered history with the depiction of America's indigenous people over the years would make it an even more powerful statement. 

My Choice: I hope I didn't make it sound like Gladstone would only win for the historical significance and good publicity, because it really was a great performance. Her character's escalating grief haunted me for quite a while after that movie ended.

Best Actor
Bradley Cooper in Maestro
Colman Domingo in Rustin
Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright in American Fiction

Who Will Win: All of the usual metrics point to a win by Cillian Murphy as the "Father of the Atomic Bomb" Robert Oppenheimer - he's got the Golden Globe, the Screen Actors Guild award, all manner of critic prizes, etc. And yet for whatever reason I'm not totally convinced. It's a very good performance but it was a generally subtle performance, not the kind that tends to win. The old joke about the Oscars is that the categories don't go to the "best acting" (or whatever the category is), they go to the "most acting." Although if that were really the case, it would be Bradley Cooper winning this - watching that movie, you never once forgot how hard he was working.

But it wouldn't be Cooper who would upset, it would be Paul Giamatti. As the strict, neurotic teacher in The Holdovers, he gave the sort of boisterous and emotional performance that often wins. He's been in so many films by now and is always so good, yet has never won. I could definitely see it happening, but then I wonder if I'm being subconsciously influenced by how much I enjoyed his work in that movie. The data suggests Murphy will win, so I'm sticking with that for now.

My Choice: I suppose I've already let that slip, but I would love to see Giamatti win. He's one of those actors who always improves a movie.

Best Director
Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest
Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things
Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon
Justine Triet for Anatomy of a Fall

Who Will Win: Christopher Nolan is one of the most influential and successful filmmakers of the 21st century and while he's been nominated several times, he has yet to win. This is one of the least suspenseful categories of the evening - Nolan tackled an incredibly ambitious project with Oppenheimer and pulled it off with his distinctive style. He's already got the Director's Guild Award to show for it. As far as predictors go, that one is wrong maybe once a decade but it won't be this year.

My Choice: There is a lot of really impressive work in this list and I'm not overly invested in any particular nominee. Nolan deserves it, but so would the others.

Best Picture
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

Who Will Win: You can probably guess by now, but let's work backwards like usual. Past Lives is a sad, personal little movie that has been drowned out by huge movies about genocide and destruction. The Holdovers also has a timeless focus on personal relationships that works against it in the times we live in. Underestimating a Holocaust movie like The Zone of Interest is risky business at the Oscars, but the voters typically like some uplift to soften the blow and this movie has absolutely no interest in that. Poor Things is delightful but way too weird and perverted for this crowd. Maestro is basically an unintentional parody of Oscar bait dramas, ignoring the most interesting elements of Leonard Bernstein's life in favor of a fraught romance. It would have been a major contender maybe 15 or 20 years ago, but not now. American Fiction is the funniest movie to be nominated for Best Picture in quite a while, but comedies don't usually win, especially ones that satirize the tropes of race-themed stories that the Oscars themselves have done a lot to perpetuate. As for Barbie, it wouldn't have come up short in Actress and Director if it had a real chance of winning.

Anatomy of a Fall ended up with so many major nominations that I start to wonder if it could actually win. The legacy of Parasite's victory is that I always need to consider that possibility for an international film but I think the competition has enough momentum to hold it off. That leaves us with two huge historical dramas in the tradition of classic winners like Lawrence of Arabia, The Bridge on the River Kwai, Schindler's List, Titanic, and many more. In the end, I think Oppenheimer has the edge over Killers of the Flower Moon in part because Nolan's signature style and his creative non-linear story structure makes it feel unique and innovative while also hitting a lot of the notes that the voters like. The movie's stark warning about global destruction also comes at a time when we may be in the early stages of a new world war. That sounds absurd but then I wonder - did people believe a world war had started in 1939 when Hitler invaded Poland? Or was it just seen as a more typical European conflict until it wasn't? We're obviously not big on learning the lessons of history, but we can at least give them awards.

My Choice: Killers of the Flower Moon > Anatomy of a Fall > Oppenheimer > American Fiction > The Holdovers > Poor Things > Past Lives > Barbie > The Zone of Interest > Maestro

A pretty strong group of movies (except for Maestro, that one was really grating). I think the lessons of Killers of the Flower Moon are just as necessary as those of Oppenheimer, but anti-war is generally an easier sell than anti-colonialism and anti-white supremacy. I think most of the movies here will have a robust afterlife after the awards are done, which you can't say for every year's nominees.

See you next year if I'm not killed amidst widespread political violence!