Despite how upset some people were, the ever chaotic news cycle swallowed it up in about two days. But since I don't typically do a post-mortem right after the awards (except in extreme cases like the La La Land/Moonlight debacle), I like to take a quick look back at the previous year when there's an unexpected result.
Most of the framing in the news stories about this were all wrong. They framed it as a left vs. right battle but everyone who voted for Green Book did so because they saw it as a statement about the importance of racial harmony and understanding. Like a lot of issues in America these days, it was really a disagreement between generations. Older voters saw Green Book as a progressive movie while younger ones felt it was trite and patronizing, generally preferring their race-themed movies to be more blunt and confrontational in these desperate times. Something like Spike Lee's Black Klansman, which won Best Adapted Screenplay. The fact that both of these films won major awards is a good demonstration of the push and pull of the competing factions within the Academy that have made Best Picture so difficult to predict lately and this year it will be just as tough.
This year's nominations narrowly avoided a "So White" year, but there was still plenty of controversy to be had. We'll get to that when talking about the relevant categories. Let's begin!
How to Train Your Dragon 3: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Klaus
Missing Link
Toy Story 4
Who Will Win: Looks like the voters had their fill of Frozen last time around, because the sequel is nowhere to be seen. I'm thinking Toy Story 4 will win, since Pixar tends to be reliable in this category and everyone loves Woody and Buzz. A couple of the lesser-known films could certainly mount an upset. The heartwarming Netflix acquisition Klaus has some passionate fans and Missing Link is the latest jaw-dropping stop-motion film from Laika Studios, who have yet to win. It's far from decisive, but I'll bet on Pixar.
My Choice: Laika is way overdue. Coraline, ParaNorman, Kubo and the Two Strings. All great stop-motion animated films and none of them won. Missing Link is a mid-tier entry in their body of work but the craftsmanship is still amazing.
American Factory
The Cave
The Edge of Democracy
For Sama
Honeyland
Who Will Win: Apollo 11 was a brilliant documentary that would have had a strong choice for a win. Without it, this is quite competitive. Honeyland and The Edge of Democracy both have incredibly relevant subject matter (the welfare of bees and rising fascism, respectively). The Cave and For Sama are deserving but every documentary I've seen about Syria has made me want to sob in a corner for several hours so I'm not sure how many Academy members got through them. In a close race, I'm betting on American Factory because it has a unique advantage - potential for trolling. In addition to being a resonant look at globalization, it was the first film to be produced by Former President Barack Obama and Michelle Obama's production company, Higher Ground Productions. While the actual Oscar will go to the directors, you know that at least one Obama will be on stage. It would make Orange Caligula blow a gasket since he knows damn well he'll never win an Oscar unless they introduce a new category for Best Performance by a Sentient Pile of Shit. So yeah, American Factory.
My Choice: I would love it if Obama getting to speak at the Oscars gave Trump a stroke that finally rid us of him. But my favorite documentary in this line up was The Edge of Democracy, which told its tragic story in a personal and incredibly compelling way.
Greta Gerwig for Little Women
Anthony McCarten for The Two Popes
Todd Phillips and Scott Silver for Joker
Taika Waititi for Jojo Rabbit
Steven Zaillian for The Irishman
Who Will Win: It's between two movies. Greta Gerwig ambitiously shifted between past and present in her take on Little Women, even throwing in some meta-fictional elements commenting on the original novel's ending. A win for her would also be an opportunity to help smooth over the controversy of her absence from Best Director (more on that later), but will they take it? Especially when a movie about Nazi Germany is in contention? It's rare that these movies go home empty handed so JoJo Rabbit has to be considered a major contender as well. I'm going to predict a win for Little Women, but it's close.
My Choice: I understand what JoJo Rabbit was attempting to do, but it didn't really work for me. I think I would give it to Little Women as well. Not having read the book, I was initially not sure what to make of Greta Gerwig's unique choices in her adaptation. Upon further reflection, it's clear that it was an attempt to balance her own obvious love for the story with some of its issues, particularly the original ending. Pretty interesting stuff.
Noah Baumbach for Marriage Story
Joon-ho Bong and Jin-Won Han for Parasite
Rian Johnson for Knives Out
Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns for 1917
Quentin Tarantino for Once Upon A Time in Hollywood
Who Will Win: Betting against Quentin Tarantino in this category is risky, but with two previous wins, it's hard to make the case that he's been unrecognized. Based on the precursor awards, there seems to be a lot of momentum for Parasite. It makes sense - the movie has made a big enough impact that I think the voters will want to send it home with more than just an easy win in the Foreign Language category. If it doesn't win here, it's hopes for a Best Picture win are probably shot, but we'll talk about that soon enough.
My Choice: Parasite all the way, dawg. That script was a well-oiled machine full of surprises and wonderful moments of ingenuity.
Kathy Bates in Richard Jewell
Laura Dern in Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson in JoJo Rabbit
Florence Pugh in Little Women
Margot Robbie in Bombshell
Who Will Win: The absence of Jennifer Lopez in this category after she was so great in Hustlers is an unflattering omission from the Academy. Without her, it should be a cakewalk for Laura Dern as the ruthless divorce lawyer in Marriage Story. Dern has had a long and impressive career and has never won so it feels like a done deal. If anyone upsets, it would be Scarlett Johansson for playing the type of saintly mom character that the Oscars seem to love.
My Choice: Without Lopez, I think I would pick Margot Robbie. She's one of the only sympathetic characters in Bombshell's cast of Fox News propagandists...probably because unlike the majority of the cast, she's playing someone fictional. Her tearful confession to her friend near the end of the movie about what really goes on in Roger Ailes's office was an unexpectedly moving moment.
Tom Hanks in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins in The Two Popes
Al Pacino in The Irishman
Joe Pesci in The Irishman
Brad Pitt in Once Upon A Time in Hollywood
Who Will Win: Category fraud aside, Brad Pitt has got this locked down with his affable performance as the chill but tough stuntman who might have murdered his wife (the script strangely leaves that bit unresolved) and beats the living daylights out of the Manson family. Like Laura Dern, he has never won despite being a fixture in American movies for decades. It helps that all four other nominees have previous wins.
My Choice: Brad Pitt is always hard not to like, but I really enjoyed Al Pacino in The Irishman. It was actually his first time doing a Scorsese movie and while the yelling and swearing might veer close to self-parody, from what I understand it's pretty close to how the real Jimmy Hoffa behaved.
Cynthia Erivo in Harriet
Scarlett Johansson in Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan in Little Women
Charlize Theron in Bombshell
Renee Zellweger in Judy
Who Will Win: Scarlett Johansson again? If she wins one of these, it will be Supporting Actress. All the usual precursors point to a commanding win by Renee Zellweger, but there's one thing bothering me. She's getting all these awards for a movie I'm not totally sure exists.
Hear me out. I don't know anyone who has seen Judy. I've never seen a trailer for it. Most of the stuff written about it uses the same picture I've used. What if the Academy felt so bad about how Renee Zellweger was kicked to the curb once she hit middle age that they concocted a fake movie that met all the usual stereotypes for Oscar winners? It's like Wag the Dog or something! Okay, I'm being silly. The movie probably exists. But I do find it strange that it could win all these awards despite such a minuscule cultural presence. It hardly feels like a sure thing and we may end up with an upset.
My Choice: Saoirse Ronan. She's only 26 and this is her fourth nomination, which is crazy! She will win one of these years, but her work in Little Women is more than worthy.
Antonio Banderas in Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio in Once Upon A Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver in Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix in Joker
Jonathan Pryce in The Two Popes
Who Will Win: "When you give me the Oscar, can you introduce me as Joker?"
Joaquin Phoenix gave the kind of overwhelmingly brilliant performance that just steamrolls everything else. Plus he's never won. It's a huge accomplishment for Phoenix, but it's also quite an achievement for the Joker. This will be the second time an actor has won an Oscar for playing him, which shows that he is much more than just a comic book supervillain. The Joker is an avatar for our repressed urges to flip off the entire world, a theme that can be reimagined over and over again and shaped by current events. That's certainly the case here and all the silly fearmongering about mass shootings in theaters (by the way, there weren't any and that's the part that doesn't get reported) just shows how the movie hits so close to home. As kids, we love the heroes. As adults, we understand the villains.
My Choice: I think it's probably clear by now.
Joon-ho Bong for Parasite
Sam Mendes for 1917
Todd Phillips for Joker
Martin Scorsese for The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino for Once Upon A Time in Hollywood
Who Will Win: The Director's Guild award is an incredibly reliable predictor of this category and this year it went to Sam Mendes. It makes sense after he was able to orchestrate the "single take" of 1917 that guides viewers through the horror and desolation of World War I. The voters love this kind of thing. They gave it to Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu six years ago for doing this inside a theater in Birdman so they pretty much have to give it to Mendes for doing it with a war zone.
But you know what time it is. We gotta talk about the controversy and this is one that dogs the Academy more often than not in this reliably all-male category. It's not just Greta Gerwig, there are numerous women out there making acclaimed films. In fact, the category could feasibly look like this:
Mati Diop for Atlantics
Greta Gerwig for Little Women
Issa Lopez for Tigers Are Not Afraid
Lorene Scafaria for Hustlers
Lulu Wang for The Farewell
If we wanted to treat this category like Best Picture and have a maximum of 10, there's enough talent to do that as well! But I think the point has been made. Imagine the reaction that line-up would get and you may understand why women are frustrated. I know I've said this a million times, but most of these issues could be solved if the Academy members simply took more films into consideration. It's not hard, especially now with all the streaming stuff. Watch more movies. Seriously. It's your job.
My Choice: Joon-ho Bong. Parasite is the work of a master.
1917
Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
JoJo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon A Time in Hollywood
Parasite
Who Will Win: The first ever Academy Awards was held only about a decade after the end of World War I, back when it was called The Great War. The first Best Picture winner was the silent film Wings, about two friends who serve as pilots during the war. A few years later, Best Picture went to All Quiet on the Western Front, one of the greatest anti-war movies of all time. The trauma of The Great War loomed over the Oscars in its early days and now it seems they are going back to their roots with 1917.
Ford v. Ferrari's surprise nomination was itself the award. Marriage Story and The Irishman were both released on Netflix and as we now know from Roma's surprise loss last year, that works against them. Little Women didn't win over this crowd enough to pull off the big win. JoJo Rabbit annoys as many viewers as it moves. Joker wound up getting the most total nominations which is typically seen as a good omen. However, I think it's just too polarizing to win and the two elements that make it so powerful - Joaquin Phoenix's acting and Hildur Guðnadóttir's amazing music - are almost certain to win in their respective categories.
At the start of awards season, I believed Once Upon A Time in Hollywood was likely to win...mostly because the Academy loves movies about show business. I imagine a lot of the older members will vote for it, but this is where the "warring factions" thing comes in. I can imagine a lot of the younger voters would like to make history and allow Parasite to become the first film to win Best Picture that is not in English. It honestly could do that, especially after an amazing run where it became the first Korean film to get both the Screen Actors Guild ensemble award and the Writer's Guild Award for its screenplay. If it actually won, the Academy would one day look back and consider that one of their greatest moments. However, I just can't make myself believe it will happen.
The preferential ballot favors consensus. That's part of why it was a surprise when Green Book won, demonstrating that the backlash to it was mostly confined to Twitter rather than the people who actually vote. There is no significant backlash to 1917, however. I have heard the occasional silly complaint that it isn't outwardly anti-war enough, as if the scene where the guy has to swim across a river full of dead bodies really makes you want to enlist. So let's say 1917. Although I've been embarrassed at having gotten this category wrong for a few years in a row, if I'm wrong this time and Parasite manages to pull it off, I'll be delighted.
My Choice: Parasite > Joker > 1917 > The Irishman > Little Women > Once Upon A Time in Hollywood > Marriage Story > Ford v. Ferrari > JoJo Rabbit. You're probably sick of me going on about Parasite by now, but it truly is on a different level than any of these other movies, even the ones I really like.
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