Saturday, December 31, 2022

Top Ten Films of 2022

I've heard some critics complain that 2022 was a weak year for movies. I have no clue what they've been watching. From where I'm sitting, this was an excellent year. The rankings on this list were fluctuating almost constantly since summer or so, and I even extended this year's honorable mentions out to 25 so I could shout out a few more movies. No complaints here.

It's not the quality of movies that's in flux, it's the distribution. Movie theaters themselves are still on life support, clinging to a handful of big event movies to tide them over for an entire year at a time. Meanwhile, everything else is divided up among the ever increasing number of streaming services. It's both a blessing and a curse - streaming allows for the chance to see movies that would likely never get into a theater in most parts of the country, but we all have to pick and choose which services to commit to, meaning that all but the independently wealthy will miss out on something. 

I think that unless the studios are a little more generous in terms of making their stuff available on multiple streaming sites, we're in store for a resurgence of piracy that takes advantage of advancing streaming technology. As one example, the bizarre experimental horror film Skinamarink played at some festivals this year (one of which I was lucky enough to participate in digitally), but the word of mouth was so overpowering that it was pirated like crazy. I did some digging and found that most people were seeing it on a piracy website with a domain that appears to be registered in the small Pacific island nation of Tonga. Good luck reining that one in. The movie is scheduled to premiere on Shudder in January, which is good news, but at this rate everyone will have already seen it. 

I don't have the magic answer to these issues, but it's clear that movie distribution needs to throw out a lot of the conventional wisdom and adapt to rapidly changing times. But for now, let's talk about my favorite movies of 2022.

10. Navalny
A compelling profile of Alexei Navalny, the lawyer and anti-corruption activist who emerged as the chief domestic adversary of the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. He’s everything authoritarians hate - irreverent, quick-witted, a skilled communicator and, as it turned out, very resilient. In the summer of 2020, he was poisoned by agents of Putin and would have died had he not been taken to Germany to receive treatment. During his recovery, he investigates the incident with the help of a genius Bulgarian hacker with the alias "Bellincat" who almost steals the show. While the film is sympathetic to the cause of Russian freedom, it’s thankfully not a hagiography. Some valid criticism is discussed and Navalny is given the chance to respond to it. It’s a strong example of truth being just as dramatic as fiction, particularly the astonishing scene where Navalny prank calls one of the henchmen behind the poisoning and tricks him into divulging crucial information.

9. Glass Onion
The sequel to Knives Out places the genius detective Benoit Blanc (Daniel Craig) in the midst of another complex mystery. At the height of the COVID-19 plague, Blanc unexpectedly receives an invitation to a Greek island owned by famous billionaire Miles Bron (Edward Norton). The character is an unapologetically obvious (and scathing) parody of Elon Musk, so it's pretty funny that I've seen so many ads for this movie on Twitter. I wonder if he'll ever put two and two together. Probably not, the guy's an idiot. Not long after the group gathers, it’s revealed that one of the rich and influential guests has murder on their mind. It’s an incredibly entertaining film, with a clever structure and many delightful observations about the absurdity of life in the 2020s. Janelle Monae is a standout as Bron’s ex-business partner, but like the original film, it has a great ensemble cast, including Kate Hudson, Kathryn Hahn, Dave Bautista, Jessica Henwick, Madelyn Cline, and Leslie Odom, Jr.

8. We're All Going to the World's Fair
A haunting low-budget film that begins with an eight-minute static shot of the teenage Casey (Anna Cobb) recording a YouTube video where she formally signs up for the “World’s Fair Challenge,” an online horror role-playing game where participants are supposed to record the mysterious changes that might happen to them afterwards. Right from the start, the movie nails the eerie tone and aesthetics of these “creepypasta” stories. Casey’s videos attract the attention of another World’s Fair player, an older man who goes by “JLB” (Michael Rogers). His intentions aren’t easy to determine but eventually he, along with the audience, becomes unsure whether or not Casey is really suffering from a real breakdown or if she’s just giving some sort of method acting performance. It’s a stark, unsettling look at desperate loneliness and a certain kind of madness unique to the internet.

Or maybe it's about something else altogether. In the months since I first watched this, I've realized just how deep its themes run. Numerous viewers have described it as a perfect representation of what it's like to be transgender, which is fascinating because on the surface it doesn't appear to be about anything of the sort. The director, Jane Schoenbrun, is trans herself, so I'm sure there's plenty to work with here for folks with the experiences necessary to spot it. 

7. Not Okay
This razor-sharp satire begins with a cheeky message warning viewers of “an unlikeable female protagonist.” That refers to Danni (Zoey Deutch), a lonely, ditzy photo editor who fakes a trip to Paris to try and get attention on Instagram. Unfortunately, there is a terrorist attack in Paris during that same week, forcing Danni to incorporate that into her deception. It brings her all the attention she ever wanted, but a lie like that can’t last forever and the only thing the internet loves more than a hero is to destroy a hero. It’s hilarious but also quite emotional - Danni is terrible, but Deutch gives her enough humanity that we have to wonder if even someone like her deserves the online witch hunts that happen every day.

6. Everyone Will Burn
As this absorbing Spanish horror film begins, Maria (Macarena Gomez) is preparing to jump off a bridge and end it all when the sudden appearance of a young girl named Lucia (Sofia Garcia) stops her. She is still mourning the death of her son years earlier and the revelation that Lucia has some unnatural abilities and a violent streak doesn’t stop Maria from taking her in. It’s obvious to both her and the audience that Lucia is evil, but Maria is too furious at the gossipy small town she lives in, where her son was bullied to suicide and where she has been treated callously for years, to care. There are some scenes where the audience may start to agree that letting these petty snobs get murdered by a demon child might not be such a bad thing. The blend of soapy rage-fueled melodrama and supernatural horror is impossible to resist. It should feel ridiculous and silly, but there’s an emotional truth to everything that makes it work.

5. Athena 
An unnamed French city is turned into a war zone after a teenage boy is killed by police officers. Directed by Romain Gavras, son of the great Greek director Costa Gavras, this kinetic film focuses on the murder victim’s three brothers - Moktar (Ouassini Embarek) is a local gangster, Abdel (Dali Benssalah) is a decorated soldier, and Karim (Sami Slimane) is leading the uprising against the authorities. The already intense story is taken to new heights by the tremendous cinematic technique on display, with at least a dozen long takes ambitious enough to make Alfonso Cuaron jealous. The opening shot in particular is a ten minute marvel that moves in and out of buildings and cars, down entire streets, and onto rooftops. This style of cinematography is becoming more common as a directorial flex, but in this case the immediacy conveyed by a long take is a perfect match for the already arresting events. Even if the movie seems unwilling to fully commit to the radical aspects of its story, the sheer filmmaking verve makes it a stirring experience.

4. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Lots of movies with long titles came out this year. Not sure if that has any significance. Based on a YouTube series from over a decade ago, this is an adorable, creative film about a talking seashell (voiced by Jenny Slate) living in a rental house with his grandmother (Isabella Rossellini). Marcel, rendered in excellent stop-motion animation alongside his real surroundings, has remained hidden for years but is now being interviewed by a documentary filmmaker (played by the director, Dean Fleischer Camp). When clips hit the internet, he becomes a viral sensation and is even interviewed on his favorite show, “60 Minutes.” It’s a quick, engaging 90 minutes of delightful underplayed comedy that manages to both parody emotionally manipulative documentaries and also evoke a lot of genuine emotion.

3. Playground
In the first scene of this unsparing Belgian film, a sweet young girl named Nora (Maya Vanderbeque) is sobbing as she has to leave her father behind on the first day of school. Despite her fears, she makes friends without much trouble but discovers that her older brother Abel (Gunter Duret) is experiencing intense bullying. He refuses to accept help, the adults are useless, and the whole ordeal could have a calamitous effect on Nora’s still developing personality. The original title of the film is “Un Monde,” which translates to “A World.” The animalistic power structure of grade school does indeed seem like the entire world to kids, a feeling amplified by Wandel’s decision to keep the camera at eye level with the children for the entire film. It’s not easy to watch but it treats the daily humiliations of adolescence with the gravity they deserve.

2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
This word of mouth hit delivers everything it promises in its title and then some. Action cinema veteran Michelle Yeoh got the role of a lifetime as Evelyn Wang, a hapless laundromat owner who discovers the existence of countless parallel universes and is recruited to help save them from a cosmic threat. During her trip through the multiverse, she might also be able to repair her relationships with her neglected husband (Ke Huy Quan) and depressed daughter (Stephanie Hsu). The various alternate realities are often gleefully absurd and if you haven't had them spoiled yet, try to keep it that way if you have any intention of checking this out. It’s totally ridiculous and really shouldn’t work but the story is so emotionally involving that you completely buy it.

Movies this wacky don't usually make the kind of splash this one did, but it has amassed a legion of....let's say....passionate fans. So why has it connected so much? Part of it is because you rarely get such a committed look at the Asian-American experience in American films but there's more to it than that. Multiverses are all the rage lately but this film's heartfelt, maximalist storyline feels like water in the desert after so many years of detached, play it safe blockbusters. After some brutal years of plague and acrimony, people are more than ready for some catharsis.

1. Argentina, 1985
The enthralling true story of how the leaders of Argentina’s military dictatorship were tried by a civilian court for their crimes against humanity. The military overthrew the government in 1976 and terrorized the populace for six years, kidnapping and murdering tens of thousands of people during the "Dirty War." Eventually, public outrage forced them to hold elections in 1983, leading to a new government, but the question of what would happen to the perpetrators remained. The case is assigned to the worn down prosecutor Julio Strassera (Ricardo Darin) and the much younger lawyer Luis Moreno Ocampo (Peter Lanzani), who have to struggle against threats of violence and huge institutional resistance to finally get justice for the thousands upon thousands of people who suffered.

Mitre pulls off a deft balancing act, employing flashes of sardonic wit to keep the story from getting too heavy while also driving home just how difficult, and necessary, it is to bring powerful people to justice for their crimes. What this film captures so well is the high stakes and its depiction of an entire fascist apparatus lurching and lashing out to prevent actual justice from being done is incredibly relevant. It's not the kind of movie that gets a big audience in the United States, but our recent (and arguably ongoing) national trauma has shown that we could learn a lot from the history of other countries and maybe even adopt some humility(!). It's easy to say "nobody is above the law," but it's much harder to actually live by that. Regardless, the power of this film is that it demonstrates why it still has to be done.

Honorable Mentions
11. Till
12. RRR
13. Piggy
14. The Innocents
15. The Northman
16. Emily the Criminal
17. Tar
18. Soft and Quiet
19. Terrifier 2
20. Shin Ultraman
21. Barbarian
22. Pearl
23. Nightsiren
24. Pinocchio
(Del Toro)
25. Skinamarink

That's all for now. Good luck in 2023, everyone.

Saturday, October 1, 2022

Horror Around the World - Part II

31 days, 31 countries....no repeats!

I did this last year, but I'm definitely not the first to have done it. James Rolfe at Cinemassacre ended up doing it at the same time, but other writers have done the 31 days, 31 countries in Octobers past. However, I have yet to see anyone do it twice. This makes a total of 62 countries and while I'm typically reluctant to brag, I feel pretty good about that. Could I do this for a third year? I did some preliminary research and I came to the conclusion that I could only squeeze about ten to twelve more countries into the overall list. Another 31 just doesn't seem possible. 

However, you'll notice that a good chunk of this list are films made in the last decade, with a few being the first ever horror films from their countries. So in another ten years, who knows? There are roughly 195 countries in the world, give or take some disputed territories. What I have on this list and last year's list represents only about a third of them. Join the party, you guys!

1. Ukraine - Ghoul (2015)
I couldn't imagine starting with any other country. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Ukrainian people's steadfast resistance has been some of the most extraordinary history I've seen in my lifetime. It's settled into something of a stalemate, one that could go on for years. I hope it ends sooner rather than later, for the sake of both nations.

Eligibility was a bit wonky for this movie, which is a co-production with the Czech Republic. However, it was shot in Ukraine and is deeply rooted in the country's history so I think it's a worthy selection.  It's a found footage movie that was made shortly after Russia’s invasion and occupation of the Crimean Peninsula, but the story looks back on another atrocity perpetrated by Ukraine’s bullying neighbor. The “holodomor” was a famine orchestrated by Joseph Stalin during the 1930s to crush a Ukrainian independence movement, something Russian leaders deny to this day (as if that's worth anything).

The film begins with three American filmmakers arriving to film a documentary about the grisly incidents of cannibalism which occurred during the height of the famine. Their hosts take them to a house in the countryside that was the site of a particularly brutal murder only to find out that the place is possessed by the spirit of the real-life cannibalistic serial killer Andrei Chikatilo, whose mind was warped by his experiences during the famine. The Americans seem to have brought the most overused found footage tropes along with them, including characters who act extremely stupid, but the way the horror is rooted in real history makes it quite compelling.

There weren't a lot of Ukrainian horror films to choose from. Whenever the country gets back on its feet, I think that will change.

2. Taiwan - Detention (2019)
That's right, Taiwan gets its own entry. No China, I will not be recording a simpering apology in your language so you'll just have to deal. This powerful horror film is actually based on a video game by the Taiwanese studio Red Candle Games and takes place at a school during the “White Terror,” an era when the people of Taiwan were brutally oppressed by Chiang Kai-shek and his Kuomintang party following their retreat from mainland China after losing their civil war against the communists and Mao Zedong. Wei is a student terrified of being exposed as a member of an underground book club reading forbidden literature, while Fang has developed an questionably close relationship with one of her teachers. During a typhoon, both of them are trapped at the school, which has become a nightmarish distortion of itself populated by various ghosts and monsters. 

It’s surprisingly close to the story of the game and both versions memorably use surreal horror as a metaphor for the real-life terror of living under occupation. This is the exact kind of movie I hope for when doing this exercise, one that is deeply rooted in the history of its country of origin and rewards viewers who take the time to do a little research on the background.

3. Tunisia - Dachra (2020)
The first Tunisian horror film was a grim tale that examines the tension between tradition and modernity that lingers in the years following the 2011 Arab Spring uprising that overthrew a repressive regime and established a new democratic system. Yassmine, Walid, and Bilelare are three bickering journalism students collaborating on a research project involving an institutionalized woman who survived an attempted murder that was never solved. Their search leads them to an isolated village in the woods where the people dabble in the occult, along with revelations none of them expected. It’s easy to get invested in the mystery of it all, making for a tense movie that creates unease with composition that often puts the characters at the far side of the frame. The last half-hour is such a gruesome ride that it might be a while before you realize that you still have a lot of questions about the storyline. Apparently people are still victimized by occult rituals in the more remote parts of Tunisia, which is unnerving to say the least. If this is what Tunisian horror looks like, all I've got to say is welcome to the fold.

4. Peru - The Entity (2015)
Not to be confused with the brutal American horror film where Barbara Hershey gets repeatedly raped by a ghost, this is a fairly traditional found footage movie that incorporates some regional history. I came across a lot of found footage while searching for films to use for this, although not all of them were available. The format allows people to make effective horror without much of a budget, just some essential creativity. I suspect it opened doors for a lot of aspiring directors across the world.

The story revolves around four students working on a class project on the trend of "reaction videos." In the early stages of their research, the group learns that three of the people featured in one of these videos have died under mysterious circumstances, which leads them into the path of a vicious ghost with a penchant for lifting people in the air before slicing them up. The threadbare, occasionally silly plot is held together mainly by coincidence (or is it?) but the film gains an interesting historical perspective when it's revealed the ghost was a victim of the Spanish Inquisition. The fact that the ghost speaks in the indigenous Quechan language drives the point home. Like a lot of the films I covered last year, this is another examination of the horrors the Catholic Church has inflicted on the Spanish-speaking world throughout history.

5. Poland - Diabel (1972)
If you've never seen a movie by the Polish maniac Andrzej Zulawski, you are in for a ride. Good luck turning away from the screen during the hysterical mayhem of this film’s first seven minutes. An imprisoned nobleman named Jakub is rescued during a prison riot by a mysterious man dressed all in black. The already traumatized Jakub is manipulated by the stranger into a series of grisly murders, eventually bringing down the wrath of the authorities. Even at this early stage in his career, Zulawski had perfected his kinetic visual style and affinity for characters who always appear in the midst of a nervous breakdown. 

Although it it set in the 1790s, the story has parallels to a series of real incidents in the 1960s when Poland’s communist government baited dissidents into protests to provide a pretext for a crackdown on free speech. The regime figured out what was going on and they were not amused, although they could have just as easily objected to the taboo-shattering violence and depravity. Either way, they prevented the film’s release and it was not seen by the public until the late 1980s after the regime had fallen. Zulawski was so disgusted by the whole thing that he left his homeland and made the rest of his films elsewhere in Europe, including his best known work - Possession.

6. Singapore - Revenge of the Pontianak (2019)
According to Southeast Asian folklore, a pregnant woman who dies before or during childbirth and is not given proper burial rites will return as a vampiric creature known as a pontianak. Khalid moves back home to his native village with his new wife Siti and young son Nik only to find himself haunted by the vengeful presence of the boy’s mother Mina. The movie wisely keeps the pontianak out of sight until near the end, even if it isn’t quite sure what to do with her once she appears. Seeing her beat the crap out of an angry mob near the end is jarring compared to the rest of the film. The art direction uses a lot of eerie blue and red lighting to beautiful effect. It also takes place in 1965, which was the year Singapore seceded from Malaysia. Is this tale of a twisted romance gone wrong some sort of allegory for those events? I would love to hear an analysis from someone with more expertise on that region's history.

7. Greece - Medusa (1998)
The Greek myths are some of the most famous stories in history, so I was very surprised to learn just how few horror films they've produced. You would think there would be all sorts of movies featuring minotaurs, gorgons or hydras, right? Not so much. At first, all I could find were incredibly dull British co-productions that relied on the gorgeous Greek scenery but had very little apparent interest in their culture. It took some digging, but I eventually found the sort of movie I was hoping for.

The only film made by George Lazopoulos is a retelling of the classic legend in a contemporary setting. You see this kind of thing constantly with Shakespeare, but not as much with Greek myth. Perseus is a knife enthusiast and petty criminal who breaks into his childhood home to find it occupied by a mysterious woman who always wears dark glasses. Meanwhile, police are investigating strange stone statues that resemble people who have gone missing. There is a very unique feel to this film - it’s low-key, naturalistic and quietly unnerving. It sometimes feels like more could have been done with the idea, but there are a lot of clever little details for those who remember the ancient tale.

8. Paraguay - Morgue (2019)
This movie does impressive work with limited resources, filmed in mostly one location with a tiny cast. Diego is a struggling, hapless security guard for hire who commits a hit and run one night on a deserted road. The very next evening, he is assigned to patrol the local morgue that just happens to be housing the corpse of the man he hit. What follows is a familiar “reap what you sow” paranormal tale, but it’s a real nail-biter with one particularly brilliant jump scare. When Diego is locked into a dark room near the end, the viewer might find themself fighting off claustrophobia along with him. The director also picked up something else from American mainstream horror - the film is supposedly “based on actual events.” Yeah, sure it is.

9. North Korea - Pulgasari (1985)
There's a hell of a story behind this monster movie. The South Korean director Sang-ok Shin and his ex-wife, the actress Eun-hee Choi, were abducted by agents of the North Korean government in 1978. Kim Jong-il, at that time the heir to North Korea’s repressive dictatorship, forced the two to get remarried and they spent nearly a decade producing movies to try and elevate the famously reclusive nation’s cultural stature. This was the last film Shin made for them, finished shortly before the Vienna Film Festival of 1986, when the two of them sprinted to an American embassy and finally escaped.

The movie takes place in feudal Korea. A peasant blacksmith is unjustly imprisoned by an evil monarchy and carves a metal figurine of a monster, begging the gods to give it the power to avenge him. The figurine comes to life, eating metal and steadily growing large enough to help the villagers topple their oppressors. The creature effects are actually quite good but the otherwise ham-fisted movie suffers whenever Pulgasari is not on screen. The North Koreans intended this to be a proud communist tale but Shin complicated that message with the third act. As Pulgasari begins to terrorize his own people after the revolution, he becomes a metaphor for Kim il-Sung’s abuse of the North Korean populace once he came to power. Luckily for the director, nobody figured that out at the time.

This film was surprisingly easy to find. There seems to be an unspoken agreement among movie buffs worldwide to ignore North Korean copyright because the Kim dynasty is just such a pain in the ass.

10. Ireland - The Devil's Doorway (2018)
This is a powerful found footage movie about two priests, the devout young Flynn and the older, skeptical Thomas, who travel to one of Ireland's infamous "Magdalene laundries" in the year 1960 to investigate a strange paranormal occurrence. They discover profound evil, both human and supernatural. These were real places operated by the Catholic Church (yep, them again) for centuries that were supposedly a place to rehabilitate "fallen women" like prostitutes or unwed mothers but in reality functioned more like prisons. 

The director Aislinn Clarke wisely shot the whole thing in 16mm film, which visually differentiates it from its peers and also makes it resemble the sort of low-budget socially conscious documentaries of that era. The building used for the facility is also a great setting. The demonic elements are mostly what we've all seen before but the condemnation of the church's real-life abuses is razor sharp.

11. Nigeria - Karishika (1996)
My goal with this activity is not to mock any countries. Both years I've done this, there have been times when I finished a movie that turned out to be awful and thought "I should find something better than that, just to be fair to them." Unfortunately, this is the only Nigerian film I could track down and, well...as number 5 from last year might say, it's-a no good.

At the very least, it's quite a trip - a low budget, bible-thumping two and a half hour mess that begins with what looks like some sort of company meeting in Hell. Satan is annoyed about his lack of success in corrupting the world, so he sends the demoness Karishika to Earth. The shape-shifting trickster tempts men and takes cruel advantage of women suffering from infertility but a heroic pastor stands in her way. The film is well-known in its native country as a key part of the early "Nollywood" output and, somewhat unbelievably, people who grew up watching it describe it as a frightening experience. I really want to find movies that reflect well on their home country, but it didn't work out this time. I can't recommend it for sober viewing, but at least that theme song is a real banger.

12. Vietnam - Muoi (2007)
Given that Vietnam spent much of the last century in brutal battle with colonial powers, you might expect there to be a lot of horror films as a result. Not so much. In fact, this ghost story was the first one to come out of the country and was suppressed for months due to its violence, which would be considered unremarkable in Japan or Korea, whose horror traditions have clearly influenced it. As a result of the delay, a different horror movie (Ghosted Stream) was released earlier and stole its thunder, making it debatable which one was actually "first."

A Korean writer named Yun-hui travels to Vietnam to meet her estranged friend Seo-yeon as part of the research for a book. Seo-yeon shares the background information on a local folk tale involving a woman named Muoi who was betrayed and mutilated a century earlier. However, Yun-hui begins to suspect that the legend might be repeating itself around her. The premise is engaging at first, but the plot gets lost somewhere in the middle of the endless hallucinations and dream sequence fake-outs.

13. Panama - Diablo Rojo (2019)
Panama’s first horror film was produced by a very specific group called the "Panama Horror Film Company." It's about a middle-aged bus driver and his younger co-worker who stumble upon a powerful coven of witches who embody the legend of “La Tulivieja.” This is a variant on the vengeful mother archetype similar to La Llorona, but exclusive to Panama and Costa Rica. With some brutal kills, unexpected comic moments and a superb-looking monster, this movie is often reminiscent of the work of Sam Raimi, all packed into an exciting 73 minutes. Gotta love a short-ass movie.

14. Israel - Jeruzalem (2015)
The Z in the title is clearly meant to evoke World War Z, which had a major action sequence set in Israel. This is a homegrown found footage movie about the onset of the apocalypse that comes just at the right time to ruin vacation for Sarah and Rachel. The whole thing is from the point of view of Sarah's new Google Glass (does she know it's always recording?) and while it's the standard found footage plot we've all seen plenty of times, setting it at the epicenter of the world's most intractable conflict gives it a sharp edge. 

The Israeli military is portrayed as trigger happy and paranoid and ultimately it seems logical that a place plagued by so much man-made evil would also attract the supernatural variety. The highlight of the film is the introduction, which is styled like 1970s archival footage. I think I would have preferred a whole movie in that vein, although I am a sucker for stories about evil that has terrorized mankind throughout history.

15. Czech Republic - Witchhammer (1970)
If you can get through this two hour movie without singing the title to the tune of Peter Gabriel's "Sledgehammer," you are a more disciplined person than I. Although it was likely influenced by the success of the British film Witchfinder General a few years earlier, this striking movie has more in common with “The Crucible,” both in terms of its narrative and subtext. In the year 1678, a destitute old woman steals a communion wafer for a friend, which provokes such a hysterical witch hunt that the local government recruits the amoral inquisitor Jindrich Boblig. Almost immediately, Boblig is coercing and torturing women into false confessions with only the deacon Krystof Lautner willing to stand up for what’s right.

It’s not the fastest paced movie but it lays bare the hypocrisy and corruption behind this sort of moral panic, whether it's about witchcraft or acknowledging the existence of gay people in a classroom. Like Diabel, it also uses an older historical era (a completely true story in this case) to critique the show trials put on by the occupying forces of Soviet Russia during this time. The communists were slow on the uptake and the film played all over the country before they pulled it from theaters. It wasn't seen again in Eastern Europe until 1989. 

16. Laos - Dearest Sister (2016)
Laos is a one-party Communist state and not the ideal environment to nurture a film culture. However, one has still managed to emerge (albeit under the watchful eyes of censors) with Mattie Do's socially conscious horror films at the forefront. Dearest Sister was the first film Laos had ever submitted for consideration for the International Feature category at the Academy Awards. The Oscars have little respect for horror so it was not nominated, but it did bring a lot of welcome attention.

A young woman named Nok relocates from her dead-end village to the city of Vientiane to work as a caregiver for her cousin Ana, who is going blind. She is married to a rich European dirtbag who is rarely home, leaving Nok as Ana’s constant companion. In addition to losing her sight, Ana is also experiencing strange bouts of clairvoyance, everything from winning lottery numbers to menacing ghosts bringing ill omens. The shots from Ana’s point of view, where muddy figures appear in her blurry field of vision, are quite unnerving. However, it’s just as much a social drama as it is a horror film. In addition to a familiar look at the clash of tradition and modernity, the story highlights the lack of opportunities for women in Laos - going abroad and meeting a white man is seen as the best option for success. In the end, the corrupting influence of money is more frightening than any ghost.

17. Norway - Lake of Death (1958)
At first, I assumed I would pick Trollhunter, but I've written about that one here like two or three times already so I decided to find something else. This is an old-fashioned ghost story that is beloved in Norway but almost unknown outside of Scandinavia. Lilian brings several of her friends to a remote cabin by a lake in anticipation of meeting her twin brother Bjorn there. However, when they arrive Bjorn is missing with evidence suggesting suicide by drowning. While her guests delve into the history of mysterious deaths near the lake, Lilian finds herself drawn to something lurking underneath. 

It relies heavily on dialogue, sometimes feeling like a play, complete with a story-within-a-story opening that serves no real purpose. Still, the scenery of Norway looks gorgeous even in black and white and there is an eerie atmosphere that’s often compelling. I think it also deserves some credit for doing the "cabin in the woods" setup way before that became so common. The Norwegians remade it into a more generic sort of horror movie in 2020, although that one is worth watching just to see Norway in color.

18. Serbia - Leptirica (1973)
Technically, this folk horror farce was a Yugoslavian film, but it was filmed entirely in the Serbian region and since Yugoslavia's dissolution, Serbia has understandably claimed it. The miller of a small village is attacked and killed by the wicked vampire Sava Savanovich, basically a Serbian variant of Count Dracula. The bumbling villagers try to come up with a plan to stop him but none of them are prepared for the gnarly final twist. It doesn’t totally work but the movie has charm thanks to it’s realistic pastoral production design. The mill referenced in the legend (and the shooting location for the movie) is a real place in the small Serbian village of Zarozje. It's marked on Google Maps and everything!

I could have gone with a certain other "Serbian Film," but it just seemed too easy. Not that there isn't plenty to say about that one. Perhaps I'll get to it another time.

19. Malaysia - Roh (2021)
A grim movie that unfolds deep in the jungle during an undetermined time period, where single mother Mak and her children Along and Angah live in almost complete isolation. One day, a little girl covered in mud arrives with cryptic warnings about a “ghost hunter.” The scary moments are extremely effective but the story as a whole is dreamy and elusive. Maybe a more in-depth knowledge of Malaysian superstition and myth is required to fully appreciate what's going on here and unlike some other regional folk horror films like this, it doesn't seem in any hurry to throw a bone to international audiences. However, any viewer is likely to get lost in the gorgeous jungle scenery.

20. Colombia - The Hidden Face (2011)
This film resembles a classic Hitchcock mystery in the vein of Rebecca or Shadow of a Doubt. Adrian, the conductor of the Bogota Philharmonic Orchestra, has just been dumped by his girlfriend via video message. Ouch. He assumes she just ran off with another man, but his new girlfriend Fabiana can’t shake the feeling that there is a strange presence in the house. It’s gripping, economic storytelling that is rarely predictable. The truth behind the mystery is not what you expect, but it’s both chilling and darkly funny.

Many of the South American films we've covered these past two years deal with the horrors of their past. Aside from a brief reference to the continent being a safe harbor for Nazi war criminals, this is a very different approach - a story that brings attention to the cultural arts of a modern nation. People in the United States tend to write off Colombia as a typical banana republic with a lot of cocaine, so it's a shame this perspective hasn't been seen by more people here.

21. Denmark - When Animals Dream (2015)
This is a moody and unusual story with a welcome emphasis on characterization. It’s not hard for the audience to identify with Marie, an isolated girl with a seriously ill mother and a miserable job at a fishery where most of her coworkers are macho idiots. Not exactly in line with Denmark's "happiest country on Earth" reputation. When people in her small town start turning up dead, she wonders if it has anything to do with the strange changes her body is going through. It's actually more effective as a portrait of adolescent struggle than as a horror film. Even though most viewers will know what's coming, it still feels out of place once the supernatural elements emerge.

22. Morocco - Achoura (2019)
The title refers to a real Moroccan children festival that has drawn the attention of a child-snatching monster in this lush and stylized movie. A group of childhood friends who were traumatized by the creature have to come together as adults when it suddenly returns. If that sounds familiar, it’s because it’s an extremely similar premise to Stephen King’s “It," complete with numerous flashbacks to when the characters were all kids. The movie attempts to tell the whole story in 90 minutes, which is pretty tough. If you recall, the last Hollywood adaptation of "It" needed two movies and over five hours and still left some things out.

Naturally, some viewers will find this irritating but honestly, I thought it was fascinating. "It" is one of my favorite stories and to see such an American tale filtered through a different culture was incredibly interesting. There are some regional twists on how the creature behaves and one detail in the opening scene was particularly noteworthy. It takes place years earlier and one of the children who appears has been married off to a much older man despite only being about 12 years old. "It" is primarily a story about childhood trauma, but those traumas can look very different depending on where you are in the world.

23. Estonia - November (2017)
This is a deeply weird black and white folk horror movie that opens with a sentient skeletal pinwheel abducting a cow. These creatures are called kratts and they are just one of many supernatural oddities that the inhabitants of a poor village accept as just part of daily life. They resort to all sorts of trickery and black magic to survive the harsh living conditions while trying to weasel out of the inevitable consequences. Viewers aren’t really told a story, they just spend two hours in this bizarre place taking everything in. The gorgeous photography and examination of the region’s unique folklore make it intermittently compelling.

24. Costa Rica - The Sanatorium (2010)
Costa Rica has been a pacifist, stable democracy since the 1980s, giving it a reputation as an oasis of calm in the often tumultuous region of Central America. That stability translates into an irreverent take on the Duran Sanatorium, a real place which functioned over the years as a clinic for tuberculosis patients, an orphanage and of course, an asylum. Tales about the haunted place, many including a sinister nun, have brought international attention from ghost hunters. A small and mismatched documentary film crew head out to the place and might find some great evidence if they can stop bickering. It’s mostly a deadpan comedy that goes totally bananas in the last twenty minutes. It feels lighter and softer than one might expect from a movie like this, but benefits from being filmed in the actual sanatorium. 

25. Iceland - Lamb (2021)
A plodding fable that got a wider release than is typical for this sort of movie. The main characters are a lonely couple who make a modest living as farmers out in an isolated and beautiful region of the country. At some point in the past, they lost a child but fate takes a strange turn when they discover that one of their sheep has given birth to some hybrid creature that is half lamb and half human. They happily adopt the lamb, who they name Ada, as their own but the truth about her origins will eventually come out. The filmmakers seemed to have a tough time depicting the creature, using mostly CGI that varies wildly in quality from scene to scene. It would be easier to ignore if there was more going on in the story. Other than a thin look at parental grief, the movie doesn’t do much besides waste time. I didn't love it but the bleak and beautiful scenery of Iceland is truly one of a kind.

26. Cambodia - The Spell (2019)
A somewhat formulaic film that begins with Thida and her husband Nak moving into his beautiful childhood home to find that it's now haunted by the angry ghost of a young woman named Lin. Thida has no clue what's going on but both Nak and especially the housekeeper are acting strangely. In terms of style, it borrows a lot from their East Asian neighbors. But, as you've probably noticed after two years of this, the story of a wronged woman exacting supernatural vengeance is an international staple. However, there are differences in terms of how deeply each country wants to get into the issues at hand.

While the story has some sympathy for Lin (and they gave her a catchy musical leitmotif), the thematic power of the film is undermined by flashbacks that reveal she was crazy all along and Nak didn't do anything wrong. It's a missed opportunity that feels strangely defensive - Cambodia has obviously come a long way since the days of the Khmer Rouge but human rights organizations have called out the country for widespread domestic violence that is generally considered socially acceptable. The kind of thing the US Supreme Court looks at and says "we need more of that." 

27. Netherlands - Amsterdamned (1988)
If someone absolutely had to make this pun, at least it was the Dutch themselves. This action-filled slasher depicts the city of Amsterdam shaken up by a killer with scuba gear who is killing people seemingly at random from the city’s famous canals. Two swaggering detectives struggle to catch the maniac while under pressure from nervous city officials. This is a film that tries to do a lot and mostly succeeds, blending the typical masked killer story with elements of Jaws, hardboiled crime drama, a sense of gallows humor, and a spectacular speedboat chase towards the end. Your typical slasher does not go this hard so this was a nice surprise.


28. Finland - Lake Bodom (2016)
The most infamous unsolved murder in Finnish history happened at Lake Bodom in 1960, when three people on a camping trip were stabbed to death and another was seriously injured. With the killer unknown to this day, the case has taken on a lasting presence in Finland's culture similar to the Zodiac killings in the United States. The metal band Children of Bodom is just one example.

This film takes place in the present day as four students journey to the site in the wake of a nude photo scandal that has shaken up their school. They intend to study the crime and the viewer is prepared for a copycat killing to unfold. Instead things go in a very different direction and to say more would spoil the surprise. There seems to an effort to connect modern teen misbehavior to the brutality of the original murders, but I don't think the story quite pulls that off. It's still quite a gripping film.

29. Egypt - 122 (2019)
In Egypt, calling 122 is the equivalent of 911 in the United States. Nasr and his deaf, pregnant wife Umneya are legally married but are struggling to find enough money for a ceremony and reception. That proves to be the least of their worries after a brutal car accident - Umneya wakes up in the hospital but Nasr has been abducted by organ harvesters working in the basement of that same hospital. The bloody mayhem that follows is pretty straightforward for this kind of movie, but the tension around the martial status of the main characters is pretty interesting. Egypt is a conservative Muslim country so the writers were likely careful about how to depict that situation. The stigma of the unwed mother is a rare thing that unites most of the mainstream religions and cultures. The lengths that the writers of Lethal Weapon 4 went to avoid Murtaugh's daughter being an unwed mother are more ridiculous than anything in this film.

30. Belgium - The Devil's Nightmare (1971)
In the black and white introduction to this gothic film, a Nazi general explains that a curse has afflicted his family for centuries, targeting the first daughter born to each generation. In the present day, he lives in a castle and invites seven lost tourists to stay the night. However, the castle grounds are prowled by a mysterious succubus. There’s an interesting blend of eras - it resembles the haunted house films of Golden Age Hollywood but there’s quite a bit of swinging sixties energy here too. In an interesting touch, each of the guests represents one of the seven deadly sins and are punished in appropriate ways, almost 25 years before David Fincher’s Seven.



31. Honduras - La Condesa (2020)
This film begins in the late 1970s, when two brothers bring their significant others to a remote family mansion called La Condesa (the Countess). While visiting, they stumble on evidence of terrible atrocities committed there in the past and struggle with the dilemma of keeping it quiet for the sake of their family or bringing it to light for the greater good. The story alternates between this era and the present day, when the niece of the two brothers visits with her girlfriend and confronts the same issue.

It’s a straightforward metaphor for what a lot of countries go through, not just Honduras, when dealing with the less flattering aspects of their past. The advances in communication in recent years have made it even harder for governments to control what information gets to the general public. The film stops addressing it in the final act in favor of more traditional scares. It’s still well worth a watch thanks to the shadowy mansion setting and the baroque music box score.

Happy Halloween!

Friday, March 25, 2022

Oscars 2022 Educated Guesses

Another awards season brings with it another year of the Academy Awards behaving like the Democratic Party, ignoring its base in hopeless pursuit of some mythical Joe Sixpack who has no interest in the Oscars but apparently will watch them if the show is just a little shorter.

The latest round of self-recrimination was brought on by last year's ceremony, which aired on TV right around the time the Covid vaccines were becoming widely available and had to make major adjustments for safety's sake. The already challenging situation was marred by the embarrassing ending to the ceremony, where Best Actor was moved to the end of the show in anticipation of a big moving tribute to the late Chadwick Boseman...only for him to be upset by Anthony Hopkins, who wasn't even there to accept the award. Whoops! Just goes to show that they really don't know what's in those envelopes ahead of time.

However, it's not that anticlimax that upset the show's producers as much as the historically low ratings. People just weren't digging an awards show in the midst of all the bad news, can you blame them? The Academy's gut reaction to these situations is always to disrespect large portions of its membership and sure enough, there was another announcement that several categories would be presented off the air and edited into the broadcast. Stuff like editing, cinematography, sound...all pretty important to movies, but typically not awarded to beautiful movie stars so Joe Sixpack can't handle it. In fact, the Academy looks particularly bad this time because last year they convinced the sound branch to very reluctantly accept the merging of the Sound Mixing and Sound Editing categories into one, with the promise that they wouldn't attempt to cut them from the live show again. Only one year later and here we are! Despite the backlash, they have dug their heels in so, as of the Friday before the show, it looks like this is how it will play out. Don't be surprised if some of the winners call them out in their speeches.

The Oscars are not a huge mainstream event and that's okay. There's nothing to be gained by chasing the Superbowl's clout, not when football is basically America's national religion. It would make much more sense to solidify the appeal to movie fans everywhere, to fully establish it as a fun annual event for people who find the Superbowl irritating and avoid it. If it's long, oh well. People will spend 12 hours watching a whole season of streaming television, remember? Since the pressure is coming from ABC, maybe the answer is just to divorce the entire thing from network television and stream the whole show. It would honestly solve a lot of these problems.

There's another unique aspect of this year's show that is well worth discussing...

Oscars Fan Favorite

A new category? It's too early to say but it's quite an experiment.

When Spider-Man: No Way Home packed theaters in a way that hasn't been seen since before the plague, a loud contingent of industry folks declared this feat worthy of a Best Picture nomination. Does the movie deserve it? Well, that's up to each individual viewer. In my opinion, the one it should really get is Supporting Actor for Willem Dafoe. That man is a god. Was it ever likely for it to actually get that Best Picture nomination? No.

As fun as the movie is, it's way too dependent on Marvel lore for the large portion of the Academy who just don't follow this stuff. You need to have seen like 5 or 6 other movies to appreciate everything. When the nominations came out, there were immediate cries of "snub," although to be snubbed you have to had a chance in the first place. It was never going to happen. At the very least, I will agree with Jimmy Kimmel that the movie is indeed better than Don't Look Up.

The Oscars are very uncomfortable with these situations, especially when the movie in question is from Disney, which owns almost everything at this point including ABC. So they created this concept almost entirely for a chance for Spider-Man to get something. The way it works is that people chime in with their picks on social media and at first glance, you can kind of see what they were going for. Spider-Man is getting a lot of love, but there are also a lot of people pushing for Zack Snyder's director's cut of Justice League. Meanwhile, the horror community has rallied behind Malignant. 

I rolled my eyes at the initial announcement, but I've warmed to the idea since then. It could end up being a fun thing to do every year. The only thing I worry about is how susceptible this process is to bots and trolls. We could end up with some other random movie winning the poll that was chosen as a joke. If that happens, I doubt we'll see this category again. If all goes to plan, I think Spider-Man is the obvious winner and I'd be happy to add it to the annual list of predictions in the future.

Best Animated Feature
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. The Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon

Who Will Win: Sixty percent of the nominees were released by Disney, which I find just obnoxious. That's not to say the movies themselves aren't good! Typically the Pixar film is the safest bet, but Luca was released so long ago it feels like it's not even eligible. Meanwhile, Encanto is vintage Disney that has people excited in a way not seen since Frozen. A bit of trivia - the Danish animated documentary Flee is the first movie ever to be nominated for Animated Feature, Documentary and International Feature. Pretty impressive, although this is the one it's least likely to win.

My Choice: Encanto is the best Disney movie I've seen in ages, but I have to go with The Mitchells vs. The Machines. The animation division at Sony, which won a couple years ago for Into the Spider-Verse, is putting out brilliant and innovative work and should be encouraged.

Best Documentary Feature
Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul
Writing with Fire

Who Will Win: Flee is the most innovative documentary here and it also tells a story of the refugee experience that's newly relevant because of what's happening in Europe. It may well win, but I'm predicting the Oscar will go to Summer of Soul, which unearthed footage of a huge Harlem festival in 1969 and made an electrifying documentary out of it. The key factor is that the director is Ahmir "Questlove" Thompson, who was actually the DJ for last year's Academy Awards. He must have made a few friends in the process, so that should work in his favor.

My Choice: I expected Summer of Soul to be good, but I didn't think it would capture so much of the excitement of being at a real concert. It's also an impressive feat of archival work given that this footage had sat in a basement for decades up until now.


Best Adapted Screenplay
Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog
Maggie Gyllenhaal for The Lost Daughter
Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe for Drive My Car
Sian Heder for CODA
Denis Villeneuve, Eric Roth and Jon Spaihts for Dune

Who Will Win: This is quite competitive and you can make a decent case for any of these writers ending up with the Oscar. The Power of the Dog might seem to be the front-runner, but Campion is likely going to be rewarded elsewhere. Meanwhile, the voters might favor Villeneuve and his co-writers for making a generally successful adaptation of what's considered a very difficult novel. My guess is that Sian Heder will win for CODA, which explores issues within the deaf community that typically go unaddressed in the movies. 

My Choice: I don't have a strong preference, but I suppose I would give it to Maggie Gyllenhaal. The Lost Daughter jumps between past and present in ways that offer insight without ever being confusing.


Best Original Screenplay
Paul Thomas Anderson for Licorice Pizza
Zach Baylin for King Richard
Kenneth Branagh for Belfast
Adam McKay and David Sirota for Don't Look Up
Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt for The Worst Person in the World

Who Will Win: You could make a good case that the revered writer/director Paul Thomas Anderson is long overdue, with eleven career nominations and zero wins. He may pull it off this year, but my gut says the Academy will favor Branagh and his semi-autobiographical story of growing up in Northern Ireland during the "Troubles." The other three are likely out of the running although the writers of Don't Look Up would certainly give a memorable speech if the movie is any indication.

My Choice: I would probably give it to Belfast as well. Despite the cultural specificity, the struggles of the family depicted in the film really feel universal. Maybe that's more a reflection of the world than the movie, though.


Best Supporting Actress
Jessie Buckley in The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose in West Side Story
Judi Dench in Belfast
Kirsten Dunst in The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis in King Richard

Who Will Win: Ariana DeBose has been racking up awards for months now as Anita in the new West Side Story and there's no reason to think the Oscars will be any different. This is the same role that won Rita Moreno an Oscar back in 1961, which means Anita will join Don Corleone and the Joker in an elite club of characters who have won Oscars for multiple actors. Could anyone upset? Jessie Buckley played a very difficult character to great effect and Kirsten Dunst could possibly win if The Power of the Dog dominates the ceremony...but I wouldn't bet on it. We like to be in America, we win awards in America.

My Choice: I couldn't fault anyone for giving it to DeBose given how she walks off with that movie, but I lean towards Kirsten Dunst. She's been stuck with a lot of uninteresting roles during her career and must have loved the chance to go in a way different direction. It was unusual casting but it paid off.


Best Supporting Actor
Ciaran Hinds in Belfast
Troy Kotsur in CODA
Jesse Plemons in The Power of the Dog
J.K, Simmons in Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog

Who Will Win: Initially, I thought it would be Kodi Smit-McPhee, as his character is the one that anchors The Power of the Dog. However, he's young and this category often favors older men. Vote splitting with Plemons is also an issue. The precursor awards have mostly been going to Kotsur, who plays the grizzled fisherman dad in CODA. He would be only the second deaf actor to win after Marlee Matlin (who plays his wife in the film). Now that I've seen the movie, I'm totally convinced that he has this locked down. That scene where he asks his daughter to sing for him despite knowing he'll never hear her and trying to feel the vibrations instead? That's the kind of scene that seals the deal. I'll be shocked if that's not the clip that's shown when they're reading off the nominations.

My Choice: There are a lot of performances I liked this year that aren't listed here, but out of what's available, I'd be happy to see Troy Kotsur get it. There were a lot of sides to that character and he got at them all using primarily sign language and facial expressions.


Best Actress
Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman in The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz in Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman in Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart in Spencer

Who Will Win: If Olivia Colman hadn't just won in this category three years ago, she would be unstoppable. She still might pull out a win since that performance was just that good. For now, the odds favor Jessica Chastain as the televangelist Tammy Faye Bakker, who preached traditional values while her husband broke the law left and right. It's a bit like Renee Zellweger and Judy a couple of years ago in that she's dominating the awards circuit despite being in a movie that otherwise has completely flown under the radar.

My Choice: Olivia Colman. Given that her background is mostly in comedy (even her winning role in The Favorite had a lot of humor), I did not see that intense performance coming.


Best Actor
Javier Bardem in Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield in Tick Tick Boom
Will Smith in King Richard
Denzel Washington in The Tragedy of Macbeth

Who Will Win: Yo, this is a story all about how Will's life got flipped, turned upside down. I'd like to take a minute, just sit right there, I'll tell you how he wins thirty years since "Fresh Prince of Bel-Air." Too much? Sorry. This is the easiest call of the night. You've got one of the most charismatic actors on the planet playing a real person in an inspirational drama? It's like the whole situation was reverse-engineered to win awards. Just don't jinx it by moving the category to the end of the show.

My Choice: I have way too many fond memories of "Fresh Prince" to root for anyone else.


Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson for Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh for Belfast
Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog
Ryusuke Hamaguchi for Drive My Car
Steven Spielberg for West Side Story

Who Will Win: Whatever happens to the movie itself, a win for the New Zealand filmmaker Jane Campion seems inevitable. She's won just about every directing award this year, including the telltale Director's Guild honor. Headlines about the Academy giving this Oscar to two women in a row (following Chloe Zhao last year) must also be appealing.

My Choice: I've never connected to Campion's films despite their technical excellence and that includes The Power of the Dog. It might not sound like an exciting choice, but I'd be tempted to give it to Spielberg after seeing the amazing production design and cinematography in the new West Side Story. We take this stuff for granted coming from him, but if a previously unknown director came along with a movie that looked like this, we'd all be singing their praises to high heaven.


Best Picture
Belfast
CODA
Don't Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story

Who Will Win: The usual indicators point to a win by The Power of the Dog. It's got a ton of nominations and has won many of the important precursor awards. However, I don't think it's going to happen. In fact, the movie is quite vulnerable. As well made as it is, it's emotionally cold and at times seems determined to alienate its audience. But if it didn't win, what would?

Nightmare Alley got here based on affection for Guillermo del Toro but I think most people would agree it's a mid-tier entry in his body of work. Dune is an impressive feat of blockbuster filmmaking but science-fiction is a nonstarter with this crowd. Licorice Pizza is a light comedy that looks insubstantial compared to some of these other films. King Richard is a familiar sports drama that benefits from great acting, which is where it will be recognized. A win by West Side Story would be interesting given that it's a remake of a movie that already won Best Picture, but this isn't 1961 and I don't think it's a year where an old-timey musical wins. Don't Look Up is the most polarizing of the nominees and will be undone by the preferential ballot system that rewards consensus. Sometimes a movie like Green Book can win despite that, but Green Book had sentimentality and attempts at racial uplift whereas Don't Look Up is just a giant wail of frustration. Could the Japanese film Drive My Car do what the South Korean film Parasite did just two years ago? The fact that it has gotten this far makes me think it has a real shot, but it's not a crowdpleaser like Parasite. It fits within most stereotypes of the typical "art film" - an understated three-hour drama with a lot of attention given to the messy personal lives of actors.

The remaining two films are the ones with a chance to upset. Belfast is the closest to a "traditional" Best Picture nominee, a period drama with a finale that leaves viewers reaching for tissues. Don't underestimate a tearjerker at the Oscars, folks. CODA is the "happy tears" version, a feel good story that's also a legitimate breakthrough for the depiction of deaf people on screen. It surprised most observers by winning the Best Ensemble prize at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, with the Producers Guild following closely after. It's coming for the big prize. 

This starts to feel familiar if you've followed the Oscars for a while. We seem to be headed for a replay of the infamous Brokeback Mountain vs. Crash matchup in 2005. Once again we have a gay cowboy movie going into the ceremony looking unbeatable only to be potentially taken down by an unassuming challenger. Crash was one of the most divisive winners ever and its win was followed by a wave of scathing think pieces about the latent homophobia lurking within the supposedly progressive Academy membership. I would almost feel bad for CODA if it wins, since it's a sweet little movie that wouldn't deserve the resulting backlash.

But it may not turn out that way. I don't think the Academy particularly wants to experience that again and in a year where the Oscars have already gotten a lot of bad press, "fixing" a certain result in the past might be appealing. So maybe they will go with the easy-to-appreciate-hard-to-like choice this time. There's some real suspense this year. I didn't see the 2005 result coming but this time I think CODA will win. We shall see.

My Choice: Belfast > West Side Story > Dune > CODA > Drive My Car > Nightmare Alley > Licorice Pizza > King Richard > The Power of the Dog > Don't Look Up. Even though I don't really see Spider-Man as Best Picture material, I do sympathize with people who would like to see some more outside the box nominees in this category. The increasing presence of movies from other countries for the last few years is encouraging and I hope that the idea of what an "Oscar movie" is continues to broaden.