Annihilation
Black Klansman
Blindspotting
Cold Hell
Eighth Grade
The Hate U Give
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Quiet Place
Scream For Me Sarajevo
Plausibility: Black Klansman is the only sure thing. If Beale Street Could Talk has a good shot too. Eighth Grade would be a surprise but it could happen. Annihilation certainly had good enough reviews but is probably too out there for the Oscars, who prefer their science-fiction to be light on the fiction. Believe it or not, some pundits are predicting A Quiet Place makes it in. That'd be cool but I'll believe it when I see it. The lack of awards attention for a powerful drama like The Hate U Give is just baffling. Blindspotting deserves a nomination but its release was just too small. Documentaries never show up in Best Picture, but if someone were to adapt the powerful story of Scream for Me Sarajevo into a narrative feature it might do pretty well. If you saw my top ten, then you know my choice would be Cold Hell, a roller-coaster ride with an incredibly relevant story. Not gonna happen, it would have to at least get a Blu-ray release first.
Panos Cosmatos for Mandy
Alex Garland for Annihilation
Tarik Hodzik for Scream For Me Sarajevo
Spike Lee for Black Klansman
Stefan Ruzowitzky for Cold Hell
Plausibility: You know you've gone out on a limb when the person on your list most likely to get nominated is Spike Lee. He's overdue but there's a case to be made for everyone here. Alex Garland did wonders with a mid-size budget in Annihilation. Tarik Hodzik elegantly shuffled between past and present in Scream For Me Sarajevo. Stefan Ruzowitsky combined the bright colors of the giallo with modern techniques, although he at least already has an Oscar (Best Foreign Language Film for The Counterfeiters). When it comes to a singular aesthetic experiences this year, however, I think of Mandy right away. In only his second feature, Cosmatos created a totally unique world for his surreal story to unfold in. Or maybe it's just because so many of the backdrops look like metal album covers.
John Cho in Searching
Daveed Diggs in Blindspotting
Ben Foster in Leave No Trace
David Howard Thornton in Terrifier
John David Washington in Black Klansman
Plausibility: Ah ha ha ha ha! I would pay good money to see the reactions of those old Oscar voters if they actually sat down and watched Terrifier. Even though extreme gore is not everyone's thing, Thornton gave an amazing, completely wordless performance as the unspeakably evil Art the Clown. John Cho should be a no-brainer, but none of the various Oscar controversies have made it any easier for Asian actors to get any respect. Daveed Diggs and Ben Foster were both great in small independent films that will likely be overlooked. The best shot here is John David Washington, son of Denzel and the star of Black Klansman, a movie that's looking to do pretty well tomorrow.
Toni Collette in Hereditary
Elsie Fisher in Eighth Grade
Maggie Gyllenhaal in The Kindergarten Teacher
Violetta Schurawlow in Cold Hell
Amandla Stenberg in The Hate U Give
Plausibility: I was iffy on Hereditary. The hype was just out of control and mostly based on a single and admittedly shocking scene. The rest of it was pretty familiar stuff, but no demon-worshiping cult is anywhere near as scary as watching Toni Collette's character slip into grief-driven madness. She was incredible and there's been plenty of talk about her breaking into the final five at the Oscars. I suppose it's possible but I have a feeling we're in for a repeat of the whole Essie Davis/Babadook thing. The other one with a feasible shot is Elsie Fisher, who embodied that familiar middle school confusion where you think you should be acting like an adult but you don't really have any idea what that means. Definitely on the bubble but she has a much better chance than the rest. Maggie Gyllenhaal was great but the movie had a small Netflix release (if you're not Roma, this is still a pretty hard sell for the Academy). Amandla Stenberg hasn't shown up in this awards season, maybe because she's been overshadowed by Elsie Fisher and two teenage nominees is unlikely. Violetta Schurawlow kicked all sorts of ass, but (no pun intended) Cold Hell's flicker of a release in the Western Hemisphere, plus being a horror movie, plus being on a streaming service...yeah, you get the idea.
Adam Driver in Black Klansman
Brian Tyree Henry in If Beale Street Could Talk
Russell Hornsby in The Hate U Give
Michael B. Jordan in Black Panther
Rich Sommer in Summer of '84
Plausibility: Adam Driver will probably get a nomination. Michael B. Jordan might too if Black Panther gets a wide sweep. A stronger than expected showing for If Beale Street Could Talk would be good news for Brian Tyree Henry, whose character gave a haunting monologue about the indignities of prison life. Rich Sommer as the police officer who may or may not be a murderer is the main reason why Summer of '84 worked. My top choice would be Russell Hornsby as Mav Carter, the charismatic, hotheaded and noble father from The Hate U Give.
Nadia Alexander in Blame
Emily Blunt in A Quiet Place
Shayna McHayle in Support the Girls
Debra Messing in Searching
Gina Rodriguez in Annihilation
Plausibility: Forget Mary Poppins, this was the 2018 Emily Blunt performance that will be remembered. Nobody who saw A Quiet Place will forget the scene where she has to give birth while trying not to make a sound. She just might get nominated too. Everyone else here doesn't have a chance unfortunately. Gina Rodriguez made her character's paranoid meltdown super intense. I didn't know Debra Messing was capable of the type of performance she gave as a police detective in Searching. Nadia Alexander's final scene in her movie was one of the most emotional moments of the year. The biggest mystery might be why Support the Girls, a "dramedy" in tune with modern anxieties, has been shut out of the awards season. They usually love this kind of thing.
That's all for now. I'll be back in a month or so to predict the results of the real (and surely less interesting) nominations.
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