Baby Driver
Brigsby Bear
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Last Jedi
The Villainess
Plausibility: Middling. Dunkirk and Lady Bird are safe bets and surprisingly, so is Get Out. It won't win, but it will be nice to see a horror film in the line-up unless something goes awry at the last second. Brigsby Bear is too quirky and Baby Driver is way too much fun. The Villainess would give a good number of Academy members heart attacks with its intensity. The Last Jedi isn't completely implausible but the Star Wars fandom can be so obnoxious that the Academy probably doesn't want anything to do with it. That leaves The Florida Project, which was my favorite. It could certainly happen, but it's basically on the bubble and could easily be pushed aside by something else.
Sean Baker for The Florida Project
Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird
Byung-gil Jung for The Villainess
Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk
Edgar Wright for Baby Driver
Plausibility: On the low side. Nolan's the only one I feel totally confident will show up. The Florida Project would need to have a major showing for Sean Baker to get nominated. Edgar Wright's movies are so delightful and I really hope he shows up here someday, but it won't be this year. Byung-gil Jung oversaw a handful of glorious action scenes that put Western blockbusters to shame in The Villainess, while also balancing them with a character-based melodrama. It's tremendous work, but the Academy's just too insular. That leaves Greta Gerwig. She has good odds, but we know from experience that it's unreasonably hard for a woman to get into this category unless her name is Kathryn Bigelow. If I had to make the call, I would say she gets in...and if she doesn't, be prepared for a shitstorm of the highest order, one that could feasibly push Lady Bird to a Best Picture win (like the Argo/Ben Affleck situation a few years back).
John Cho in Columbus
James Franco in The Disaster Artist
Hugh Jackman in Logan
Daniel Kaluuya in Get Out
James McAvoy in Split
Plausibility: Pretty much the same as Director. After his Golden Globe win, sexual harassment allegations came out against Franco, but I think Oscar voting was basically done by that point so I suspect he'll still get nominated. Daniel Kaluuya has a good shot, barring another "so white" year. John Cho was great in a movie that was very small, intellectual and understated - not Oscar material. James McAvoy did a hell of a job differentiating all of his different personalities in Split, but if a horror movie's going to break into Best Actor, it ain't this one. In a better world, Hugh Jackman would have had a good shot at this. His final performances as an old, desperate Logan was a great way to end his exceptional run as the character. Someday he'll be thought of as the Wolverine equivalent of Sean Connery's James Bond.
Carla Gugino in Gerald's Game
Ok-bin Kim in The Villainess
Frances McDormand in Three Billboards
Brooklynn Prince in The Florida Project
Saoirse Ronan in Lady Bird
Plausibility: Another two out of five (seems to be a theme this year). Wonder Woman was good but if you want to see a woman kick even more ass, have I got a movie for you. We've established that The Villainess will not be showing up anywhere this year, but if the Academy made an effort to see more movies in a given year (and if a nobody like me can manage it, they have no excuse), Ok-bin Kim might have made the list. McDormand is guaranteed a nomination and probably the win. Saoirse Ronan won't be far behind. Carla Gugino would have a shot if Gerald's Game wasn't a Netflix movie - old fogeys in the movie business are pretty salty about all this streaming business. Brooklynn Prince gave one of the most moving child performances I've seen in years, but this category is just too competitive.
Gil Birmingham in Wind River
Willem Dafoe in The Florida Project
Mark Hamill in Brigsby Bear
Michael Keaton in Spider-Man: Homecoming
Pheoung Kompheak in First They Killed My Father
Plausibility: Not great! Willem Dafoe is The Florida Project's surest bet for a nomination and rightfully so. The rest of these are unfortunately out in the weeds and honestly, I could have stacked this category with ten people this year. The fate of Pheoung Kompheak's stoic Cambodian dad is foretold in the title of the film, but his sensitive performance makes you hope for some kind of miracle to save him. Michael Keaton brought tons of menace and character to one of Spider-Man's sillier adversaries. Mark Hamill's presence really elevated Brigsy Bear, which is in large part about our connection to pop culture icons (like Luke Skywalker, for instance). As for Gil Birmingham, he was only in about three or four scenes, but his performance as a frustrated and utterly devastated father in mourning is outstanding. It's the kind of performance that can open people's eyes to the injustice around us, but unfortunately Wind River was produced by the Weinstein Company and will be a casualty of the revelations about Harvey Weinstein's disgusting (if not altogether surprising) behavior.
Elizabeth Cappuccino in Super Dark Times
Carrie Fisher in The Last Jedi
Kiara Glasco in The Devil's Candy
Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird
Josie Olivo in The Florida Project
Plausibility: Laurie Metcalf saves this one from being a complete wipe-out. Super Dark Times is too....dark. Josie Olivo's role in The Florida Project is likely too small, but her character has a well-defined arc despite that. I have a soft spot for metalhead teen girls (in a perfectly safe paternal way, you pervs), so Kiara Glasco would be great, but The Devil's Candy is a horror movie. There's a lot of sentimentality going into this Carrie Fisher pick, but I couldn't help but have a sense of that Heath Ledger/Dark Knight melancholy as I watched a moving final performance from an actress who had already been dead for almost a year. The Last Jedi will get a lot of nominations in the tech categories but this is one that is also well-deserved.
That's all for this year. Predictions regarding the real nominations will be next.
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