The "Barbenheimer" phenomenon that has come to define the previous year's film culture is back with a vengeance. Barbie won the good-natured rivalry when it came to box office, but Oppenheimer is clearly poised to do better during this matchup. Despite Barbie's eight total nominations, the movie's fans are deeply upset about how it was dinged in Best Actress and Best Director. It does have the whiff of snobbery, as if the voters didn't want the movie about a child's toy to get too big for its plastic britches. But the reality is these are competitive categories and the Academy's expanded membership has led to more nominations for international films (i.e. Anatomy of a Fall) at the expense of American contenders who seemed like a sure thing.
It's time to get into the categories, starting with one I'm particularly excited about.
Best Animated Feature
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Who Will Win: This past year for animation was so outstanding that I wish this category would follow Best Picture's lead and have ten nominees cause five is not doing it justice. Robot Dreams was a huge surprise given that it's extremely hard to find (best not to ask me how I saw it) and while the voters have better access to the movies, I don't see it getting past these others. Elemental is not in the same league as the rest - it's not bad by any stretch but it's definitely mid-tier Pixar. I love Nimona but the inter-studio drama will probably sink it - Netflix more or less publicly shamed Disney by reviving the production and releasing the film after the mouse house bought Blue Sky Studios and cancelled it for being too gay (and everyone says they're so "woke").
That leaves two heavyweights squaring off for the win. Hayao Miyazaki became the only anime filmmaker to win in this category with Spirited Away in 2002 and could very well win again with The Boy and the Heron if anyone is taking his perennial declarations of retirement seriously this time. However, I think the voters will go with the thrilling and insanely innovative Across the Spider-Verse - if the live-action superhero films were even half as fun and artistically daring as this series has been, they wouldn't be bombing so hard at the box office.
My Choice: If I'm not mistaken, there has never been more than one anime film in this category at a time. So the debut of a new Miyazaki joint was probably the kiss of death for Suzume, which was my favorite movie of the year, animated or not. I'm fond of most of these movies but I suppose I would give it to Across the Spider-Verse. It was just so much fun and you want to encourage that.
Best Documentary
20 Days in Mariupol
Bobi Wine: The People's President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill A Tiger
Who Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol is a journalistic masterpiece about the Russian siege of a Ukrainian city that I put off watching for quite a while because of how brutal I feared it was going to be. Sadly, I was right - it's a nightmare of mass graves, bombed hospitals, and sobbing parents. The main issue that could work against this film is that many Academy members may not even want to watch it. If that happens, the Tunisian story of a family reunited in Four Daughters will be the likely beneficiary. The others are lesser known and their nominations were generally unexpected. However, Navalny's win (rest in peace) last year demonstrated that the membership was eager to stick it to Vladimir Putin and the director will surely give a hell of a speech. If a similar film about Gaza comes along in a year or two, that will be a very different dynamic.
A little bit of trivia - there is not a single American film in this lineup. It's led to a lot of grousing and weird nationalism on the part of Hollywood big shots. Once again, everyone says they're so liberal...but if they are, it's really just by Boomer standards.
My Choice: I hope that 20 Days in Mariupol helps to get certain people convicted of war crimes at some point. It deserves the win, even if I won't be watching it again.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach for Barbie
Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest
Cord Jefferson for American Fiction
Tony McNamara for Poor Things
Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer
Who Will Win: The first of several Barbenheimer matchups but this category is just a slugfest in general packed with hugely acclaimed films. Gerwig and Baumbach originally wanted to submit their work in the Original Screenplay category, but the Academy ruled that even though there's never been a real "story" to go with Barbie dolls, a movie about them is still an adaptation. Between that and the movie whiffing in Best Actress and Best Director, its biggest fans are pretty salty despite the overall eight nominations. It's unlikely that the voters will let Greta Gerwig leave empty handed given the enormous financial and cultural success of the movie, but it's not a done deal. I could see a scenario where all the others win except The Zone of Interest, which is so light on dialogue that I doubt people think much about the screenplay when giving it awards consideration.
My Choice: I would love to see the hilarious, cantankerous screenplay for American Fiction pull off a win. What can I say, I just love flippancy.
Best Original Screenplay
Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik for May December
Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer for Maestro
David Hemingson for The Holdovers
Celine Song for Past Lives
Justine Triet and Arthur Harari for Anatomy of a Fall
Who Will Win: There's a lot of action on this side of the writing categories too. Before the nominations were announced, I would have guessed either The Holdovers or Past Lives for their memorable character arcs and the unique voices of their writers, but then Anatomy of a Fall overperformed in a major way. The Academy members are clearly big fans and this seems like its best chance for a win.
My Choice: It's the least likely to win, but my film buff traits made me a perfect match for May December's razor sharp critique of the sleaziness that animates most "true crime" adaptations. Some of the members have likely worked on the movies and TV shows being mocked, so I doubt they were as amused.
Best Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks in The Color Purple
America Ferrera in Barbie
Jodie Foster in Nyad
Da'Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers
Who Will Win: Da'vine Joy Randolph has been unstoppable during the preliminary awards, to the point where nobody else has gotten any traction. As the wise but troubled cook at a prestigious boarding school, she gave the textbook definition of a great supporting performance, leaving a strong impression on the overall movie despite only appearing in a handful of scenes. At this point, the other four nominees are mostly just for the sake of tradition.
My Choice: When America Ferrera turned up as one of the nominees, a lot of people were surprised. I wasn't. Her performance as the frustrated designer at Mattel grounds the movie and she's at the center of its most memorable scene. Her monologue about double standards faced by women will almost certainly be the clip used to introduce her.
Best Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction
Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey, Jr. in Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling in Barbie
Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things
Who Will Win: In a movie with an enormous ensemble cast, it was Robert Downey Jr. who stood out the most as the vindictive self-absorbed bureaucrat Lewis Strauss. After years of playing Iron Man, a role he could do in his sleep, this was a major reminder to everyone just how good of an actor he is. It's not a "comeback" story because he didn't go anywhere, but the thought process is a little similar.
My Choice: Um, excuse me? Where is Snoop the dog from Anatomy of a Fall? Seriously? All of those other nominations but he gets snubbed? Outrageous.
I think Downey is a good match for Christopher Nolan's style and I hope they work together again. He deserves the win but I do have a soft spot for Sterling K. Brown, who gave some absolutely priceless line deliveries in American Fiction.
Best Actress
Annette Bening in Nyad
Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Huller in Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan in Maestro
Emma Stone in Poor Things
Who Will Win: The supporting categories are pretty well sewn up, but this is where it starts to get closer. As the Osage oil heiress Mollie Burkhart, whose own husband is part of a conspiracy to murder her family and steal their wealth, Lily Gladstone is crucial to the emotional power of Killers of the Flower Moon. She has been splitting the preliminary awards pretty evenly with Emma Stone as the eccentric and headstrong Frankenstein-esque creation Bella from Poor Things. If we're being honest, it's a much more interesting role than the aspiring actress part from La La Land that won Stone her first Oscar.
Gladstone is the first Native American to compete in this category and a victory would bring about the same widespread elation that Michelle Yeoh's similarly historic win did last year. Stone herself has made it pretty obvious that she's rooting for Gladstone and the good vibes (and press) would be hard to resist. Hollywood's own checkered history with the depiction of America's indigenous people over the years would make it an even more powerful statement.
My Choice: I hope I didn't make it sound like Gladstone would only win for the historical significance and good publicity, because it really was a great performance. Her character's escalating grief haunted me for quite a while after that movie ended.
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper in Maestro
Colman Domingo in Rustin
Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright in American Fiction
Best Director
Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest
Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things
Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon
Justine Triet for Anatomy of a Fall
Who Will Win: Christopher Nolan is one of the most influential and successful filmmakers of the 21st century and while he's been nominated several times, he has yet to win. This is one of the least suspenseful categories of the evening - Nolan tackled an incredibly ambitious project with Oppenheimer and pulled it off with his distinctive style. He's already got the Director's Guild Award to show for it. As far as predictors go, that one is wrong maybe once a decade but it won't be this year.
My Choice: There is a lot of really impressive work in this list and I'm not overly invested in any particular nominee. Nolan deserves it, but so would the others.
Best Picture
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Who Will Win: You can probably guess by now, but let's work backwards like usual. Past Lives is a sad, personal little movie that has been drowned out by huge movies about genocide and destruction. The Holdovers also has a timeless focus on personal relationships that works against it in the times we live in. Underestimating a Holocaust movie like The Zone of Interest is risky business at the Oscars, but the voters typically like some uplift to soften the blow and this movie has absolutely no interest in that. Poor Things is delightful but way too weird and perverted for this crowd. Maestro is basically an unintentional parody of Oscar bait dramas, ignoring the most interesting elements of Leonard Bernstein's life in favor of a fraught romance. It would have been a major contender maybe 15 or 20 years ago, but not now. American Fiction is the funniest movie to be nominated for Best Picture in quite a while, but comedies don't usually win, especially ones that satirize the tropes of race-themed stories that the Oscars themselves have done a lot to perpetuate. As for Barbie, it wouldn't have come up short in Actress and Director if it had a real chance of winning.
Anatomy of a Fall ended up with so many major nominations that I start to wonder if it could actually win. The legacy of Parasite's victory is that I always need to consider that possibility for an international film but I think the competition has enough momentum to hold it off. That leaves us with two huge historical dramas in the tradition of classic winners like Lawrence of Arabia, The Bridge on the River Kwai, Schindler's List, Titanic, and many more. In the end, I think Oppenheimer has the edge over Killers of the Flower Moon in part because Nolan's signature style and his creative non-linear story structure makes it feel unique and innovative while also hitting a lot of the notes that the voters like. The movie's stark warning about global destruction also comes at a time when we may be in the early stages of a new world war. That sounds absurd but then I wonder - did people believe a world war had started in 1939 when Hitler invaded Poland? Or was it just seen as a more typical European conflict until it wasn't? We're obviously not big on learning the lessons of history, but we can at least give them awards.
My Choice: Killers of the Flower Moon > Anatomy of a Fall > Oppenheimer > American Fiction > The Holdovers > Poor Things > Past Lives > Barbie > The Zone of Interest > Maestro
A pretty strong group of movies (except for Maestro, that one was really grating). I think the lessons of Killers of the Flower Moon are just as necessary as those of Oppenheimer, but anti-war is generally an easier sell than anti-colonialism and anti-white supremacy. I think most of the movies here will have a robust afterlife after the awards are done, which you can't say for every year's nominees.
See you next year if I'm not killed amidst widespread political violence!
