Sunday, October 27, 2024

Covid Horror: The First Wave

What a difference a few years makes. If an alien were to arrive on Earth today, it would take them a while to figure out that a deadly disease had terrorized the entire planet for 2020 and most of 2021. Despite being a society obsessed with grievance over the wrongs perpetrated against us in the past, this is one unpleasant subject that we've decided to try our best to forget about. Like the villain at the end of a slasher movie, Covid-19 is still out there and people still get sick from it although it's now treated as something like pneumonia - it sucks to get it, but it won't kill most people (except you really don't want to end up with "long covid," a wrinkle that we still don't seem to know anything about). 

That impulse to throw what may be the defining event of the decade down the memory hole is a response to severe trauma, but history shows that this never really works. 1950s America tried its hardest to forget the horrors of World War II, but it still emerged in the infamous (and brilliant) comics like "Tales from the Crypt" and "The Vault of Horror." In that tradition, we've already seen some horror films addressing what we all just went through, some arriving much sooner than expected. They can yield a lot of insight about how we're reckoning with all that's happened, so Halloween is a good time to look at them.

The movies in this short list are the ones that address the plague directly and have it as part of the story, rather than horror films with stories that can serve as metaphors for it like When Evil Lurks or Halloween Ends. And just to clarify early on, I know that "pandemic" is the scientifically appropriate word to describe what happened, but it's also antiseptic and doesn't capture the horror of it all in the way that "plague" does, so that's what I'll be using.

Host (2020) and Dashcam (2022)

Any discussion of horror addressing the Covid era has to start with Rob Savage, who coordinated a team of quarantined friends to create the found footage film Host only months into the plague. 

This ghost story debuted on streaming in July 2020 and is depicted entirely as a videochat meeting, an example of the “screenlife” subgenre codified by Unfriended. Bored during the quarantine, a group of friends decide to conduct an online seance. One of them isn’t very respectful of the forces being dealt with and wouldn’t you know it, some evil entity begins terrorizing them. The limitations involved are apparent but it's hard not to be amazed at how quickly they turned this around and were able to work together so well despite never gathering in person. 

Savage outdid himself with his next film, the bananas adventure of an obnoxious right-wing insult comic (Annie Hardy) who visits an old friend (Amar Chadha-Patel) in the UK at the height of the plague. She’s also a streamer and the whole film is told through her channel, including her encounter with an elderly woman who seems to be infected by…something. Through all the pandemonium, insipid and bigoted messages pour in from her viewers. It seems Hardy was playing herself and is a genuine anti-vaccine nut, which led to tedious "discourse" about whether it's acceptable for someone like that to appear in a movie. I have no clue whether Hardy realized she was being made of, but it's pretty sad that so many viewers can't discern a movie's point of view without the director stepping into frame and saying "this is bad." This is a hilarious, scathing depiction of the madness of 2020s America but in the end, it’s mostly background for a traditional (although very well-executed) found footage monster movie.

Safer at Home (2021)

Another screenlife film that takes place a few years into the future, but in this case the danger of Covid remained as intense as it was in 2020. A group of quarantined friends gather on a video conference to try and recreate their Las Vegas trips of the past, complete with drugs. But the merriment leads to disaster after tensions emerge and a startling accident changes everything. An ambulance might have been useful but is quickly dismissed by the characters for dubious reasons. The best scenes are able to evoke the despair of living under the cloud of a deadly plague, but even three years later, it's already dated. It borrows a lot from Unfriended except the clever writing, asking viewers to suspend quite a bit of disbelief up until the final unintentionally hilarious twist. 

Machination (2022)

We covered this one in the Horror Around the World series, but it's so good that we might as well talk about it again. Most of the movies on this list use the plague as an interesting backdrop for a ghost story or some other supernatural tale, but this Maltese film goes straight for the horror of isolation and mental illness. It was an anxious time for all of us, but I think we all knew at least one person for whom it was the absolute worst possible scenario. Someone already prone to intense nervousness who would be so shaken by the onset of Covid that they might never believe it was safe to go outside again. Maria (Steffi Thake) is an extreme germophobe afraid to set foot outside once the disease starts to spread, leaving her alone in a small house with her demons. It’s far too realistic for comfort as Thake’s intense performance can convince a viewer that they are really watching someone lose their mind.

There's one scene in particular that I just love. Maria wakes up late one morning and has two messages on her phone. The first is from her annoying boss wondering why she hasn't been eager to resume work in dangerous conditions. The second is from her conspiracy theorist brother rambling about how evil the vaccines are. It's the last straw and she smashes her phone, severing the final connection to the outside world. I think most of us wanted to do the same at least once during that whole ordeal. 

Sick (2022)

Kevin Williamson retooled his famous Scream screenplay for the quarantine era. Perhaps that’s an oversimplification - the self-referential humor is absent but there are still plenty of scenes involving masked men with knives. At the height of quarantine, Parker (Gideon Aldon) and her best friend Miri (Beth Million) hunker down in an isolated lake house only to encounter some uninvited guests. There were a lot of intriguing directions a premise like this could go in but the movie doesn’t seem very interested in that and is surprisingly tedious. I did wonder if this was just a completely generic slasher until Covid presented an opportunity to give it a unique twist, but a reason for it emerges towards the end as it plays a key role in a late reveal.

The Harbinger (2022)

This one comes to closer than any of the others to capturing the pure existential terror of life under Covid. At the height of the lockdown, the desperate Mavis (Emily Davis) begs her childhood friend Monique (Gabby Beans) to break quarantine protocol and come to her aid. What Monique discovers is that Mavis is being plagued by terrible nightmares that make her nearly impossible to wake up, sometimes going on for days, and that this is something of a bizarre contagion itself. 

A nightmare that won’t end is as appropriate a summation of that era as you're ever likely to find. It's themes run very deep, sometimes at risk of overpowering the movie at large. The dream demon wearing a plague doctor mask can represent Covid itself, mental illness, the disinformation that flourished during that time, the societal indifference to mass death, and who knows what else. It’s not a perfect movie, but future scholars researching the early 2020s will find a wealth of material to analyze. 

So that's all for now, but I wouldn't be surprised if more films come along that react in some way to what we all went through during Covid. I have a hunch it may drift more towards metaphor rather than more direct depictions, so perhaps at some point I should go through a few of those too. Happy Halloween!

Tuesday, October 1, 2024

The 24 Hour Setlist Returns for 2024

Here's my page for this year! 

Remember when I did this in 2015? I almost did it in 2016 too but got sick right before Game Day so I had to bail. Well, I'm giving it another shot and you can find many more details on that page. This one is mostly here to host the new setlist, which was curated with much more care than the 2015 one where I just scrolled through the game and lined up songs without thinking too hard about it. I've tried to build in the brief loading time between songs into the overall timing, which helped the 2015 marathon go way over 24 hours (although it wasn't as much to blame as the constant streaming trouble).

I won't be streaming this one, which I know might be disappointing. But then again, hardly anyone watched it last time. Honestly, I think most people just donated and then forgot about it, but that's ok! It's for a good cause and I could theoretically get away with not doing it at all, but come on - I can't resist that challenge. So here are all 254 songs! Can you find some of the little easter eggs in terms of placement? Enjoy and if you can, please donate!

Intro:
1. Queen - "We Will Rock You"
2. Twisted Sister - "I Wanna Rock"

Phase I
3. Red Hot Chili Peppers - "Snow (Hey Oh)"
4. The Ramones - "I Wanna Be Sedated"
5. Weezer - "Say It Ain't So"
6. Cyndi Lauper - "Time After Time"
7. Yeah Yeah Yeahs - "Maps"
8. Warren Zevon - "Werewolves of London"
9. Social Distortion - "I Was Wrong"
10. 3 Doors Down - "Kryptonite"
11. Bad Religion - "Sorrow"
12. Foo Fighters - "My Hero"
13. Nirvana - "Come As You Are"
14. Tom Petty - "Free Fallin'"
15. REM - "Losing My Religion"
16. Ozzy Osbourne - "Crazy Train"
17. A Flock of Seagulls - "I Ran (So Far Away)" 
18. Duran Duran - "Hungry Like The Wolf"
19. Semi Precious Weapons - "Magnetic Baby"
20. Iggy Pop - "The Passenger"
21. AC/DC - "Highway to Hell"
22. Finger Eleven - "Paralyzer"
23. Scorpions - "No One Like You"
24. Slipknot - "Before I Forget"
25. Blue Oyster Cult - "Burnin' For You"
26. Lynyrd Skynyrd - "Free Bird"
27. The Flaming Lips - "Yoshimi vs. The Pink Robots"
28. Dropkick Murphys - "I'm Shipping Up to Boston"
29. Queens of the Stone Age - "No One Knows"
30. Silversun Pickups - "Lazy Eye"
31. Harry Chapin - "Cat's in the Cradle"
32. Eagle Eye Cherry - "Save Tonight"
33. Bon Jovi - "It's My Life"
34. Fine Young Cannibals - "She Drives Me Crazy"
35. The Zutons - "Valerie"
36. The Offspring - "Self Esteem"
37. Squeeze - "Cool For Cats"
38. Roxette - "The Look"
39. Kaiser Chiefs - "Ruby"
40. Sonic Youth - "Kool Thing"
41. Dream Theater - "Pull Me Under"
42. Iron Butterfly - "In A Gadda Da Vida"
43. Slydigs - "Light the Fuse"
44. Black Sabbath - "N.I.B."
45. Linkin Park - "What I've Done"
46. The Automatic - "Monster"
47. Ray Parker, Jr. - "Ghostbusters"
48. The Coral - "Dreaming Of You"
49. No Doubt - "Don't Speak"
50. The Who - "Behind Blue Eyes"
51. Pretty Girls Make Graves - "Something Bigger, Something Brighter"
52. Deep Purple - "Smoke on the Water"

Phase II
53. Whitesnake - "Here I Go Again"
54. Blue Oyster Cult - "Don't Fear the Reaper"
55. Twisted Sister - "We're Not Gonna Take It"
56. Freezepop - "Less Talk, More Rokk"
57. Anvil - "Metal on Metal"
58. Tenacious D - "Rock Your Socks"
59. Kutless - "The Feeling"
60. Black Tide - "Warriors of Time" 
61. Billy Idol - "White Wedding"
62. Green Day - "Boulevard of Broken Dreams"
63. Red Hot Chili Peppers - "Under the Bridge"
64. David Bowie - "Space Oddity"
65. Flobots - "Handlebars"
66. Megadeth - "A Tout le Monde"
67. Creedence Clearwater Revival - "Who'll Stop the Rain"
68. John Denver - "Take Me Home, Country Roads"
69. Rush - "Tom Sawyer"
70. Alice in Chains - "Man in the Box"
71. The Doors - "Break On Through (To the Other Side)"
72. Soft Cell - "Tainted Love"
73. The Damned - "Smash It Up" 
74. System of a Down - "Aerials"
75. Staind - "Outside"
76. Depeche Mode - "Policy of Truth"
77. Goo Goo Dolls - "Iris"
78. Yes - "Heart of the Sunrise"
79. Bon Jovi - "You Give Love A Bad Name"
80. Motley Crue - "Kickstart My Heart"
81. Linkin Park - "The Divide"
82. The Offspring - "The Kids Aren't Alright"
83. Riverboat Gamblers - "Don't Bury Me, I'm Still Not Dead"
84. Stan Bush - "The Touch"
85. Pantera - "Cowboys From Hell"
86. Ozzy Osbourne - "Mr. Crowley"
87. The Police - "Every Breath You Take"
88. Bachman-Turner Overdrive - "Takin' Care of Business"
89. Golden Earring - "Radar Love"
90. Robert Palmer - "Bad Case of Loving You"
91. Katrina and the Waves - "Walkin' on Sunshine"
92. The Sounds - "Living in America"
93. Pat Benatar - "Heartbreaker"
94. The Killers - "Somebody Told Me"
95. Harvey Danger - "Flagpole Sitta"
96. Hollywood Undead - "Young"
97. Cold War Kids - "First"
98. Foo Fighters - "Everlong"
99. The White Stripes - "Seven Nation Army"
100. Fuel - "Hemorrhage (In My Hands)"
101. Iron Maiden - "Wasted Years"
102. Black Sabbath - "War Pigs"

Phase III
103. Journey - "Don't Stop Believin'"
104. Toto - "Hold the Line"
105. Survivor - "Eye of the Tiger"
106. The Outfield - "Your Love"
107. Nirvana - "Smells Like Teen Spirit"
108. Alice in Chains - "No Excuses"
109. Creedence Clearwater Revival - "Have You Ever Seen the Rain?"
110. Gin Blossoms - "Hey Jealousy"
111. Fleetwood Mac - "Go Your Own Way"
112. Foreigner - "Cold As Ice"
113. Hootie and the Blowfish - "Let Her Cry"
114. Breaking Benjamin - "Failure"
115. Red Hot Chili Peppers - "Otherside" 
116. Depeche Mode - "Enjoy the Silence"
117. Rush - "Subdivisions"
118. POD - "Youth of the Nation"
119. Rise Against - "Prayer of the Refugee"
120. 3 Doors Down - "It's Not My Time"
121. Lesley Roy - "I'm Gone, I'm Going"
122. Tonic - "If You Could Only See"
123. Kiss - "Detroit Rock City"
124. Dio - "Rainbow in the Dark"
125. HIM - "Wings of a Butterfly"
126. Ghost Hounds - "Ashes to Fire"
127. Bon Jovi - "Living on a Prayer"
128. Ram Jam - "Black Betty"
129. Chicago - "25 or 6 to 4"
130. Tenacious D - "Tribute"
131. Iron Maiden - "Fear of the Dark"
132. Ghost - "Cirice"
133. The Cranberries - "Zombie"
134. The Offspring - "You're Gonna Go Far, Kid"
135. The Clash - "Rock the Casbah"
136. Pat Benatar - "Love is a Battlefield"
137. Asia - "Heat of the Moment"
138. Cutting Crew - "I Just Died In Your Arms"
139. Incubus - "Dig"
140. Muse - "Starlight"
141. Belinda Carlisle - "Heaven Is A Place On Earth"
142. Boston - "More Than A Feeling"
143. Queen - "I Want It All"
144. Billy Joel - "We Didn't Start the Fire"
145. REM - "It's the End of the World As We Know It"
146. Linkin Park - "In the End"
147. Lynyrd Skynyrd - "Simple Man"
148. Nickleback - "How You Remind Me"
149. Tribe - "Outside"
150. The Doors - "People Are Strange"
151. The Killers - "All These Things That I've Done"
152. My Chemical Romance - "Welcome to the Black Parade"

Phase IV
153. Tenacious D - "The Metal"
154. Dio - "Holy Diver"
155. Motorhead - "Ace of Spades"
156. Alestorm - "Shipwrecked"
157. Children of Bodom - "Are You Dead Yet?"
158. Rammstein - "Du Hast"
159. System of a Down - "Spiders"
160. Testament - "Souls of Black"
161. Skid Row - "18 and Life"
162. Ghost - "Mary On A Cross"
164. Nightwish - "Amaranth"
165. Scorpions - "Rock You Like A Hurricane"
166. Anthrax - "Caught in a Mosh"
167. Living Colour - "Cult of Personality"
168. Megadeth - "Holy Wars...The Punishment Due"
169. Judas Priest - "Halls of Valhalla"
170. Dragonforce - "Through the Fire and Flames"
171. Iron Maiden - "Rime of the Ancient Mariner"
172. Alice in Chains - "Would?"
173. Disturbed - "The Sound of Silence"
174. Queen - "The Show Must Go On"
175. Pearl Jam - "Alive"
176. Audioslave - "Like A Stone"
177. Faith No More - "Midlife Crisis"
178. Bang Camaro - "Night Lies"
179. The Protomen - "Light Up the Night"
180. AC/DC - "Thunderstruck"
181. Sweet - "Ballroom Blitz"
182. White Denim - "At Night in Dreams"
183. Jethro Tull - "Aqualung" 
184. Yes - "Roundabout"
185. U2 - "Pride (In the Name of Love)"
186. Dolly Parton - "Jolene"
187. Depeche Mode - "Never Let Me Down Again"
188. Foreigner - "I Want to Know What Love Is"
189. Jefferson Airplane - "Somebody to Love"
190. Shinedown - "Second Chance"
191. Jet - "Are You Gonna Be My Girl?"
192. Billy Joel - "Piano Man"
193. Molly Hatchet - "Flirting with Disaster"
194. Soundgarden - "Superunknown"
195. Temple of the Dog - "Hunger Strike"
196. Incubus - "Pardon Me"
197. Bon Jovi - "Blaze of Glory"
198. Kenny Loggins - "Danger Zone"
199. Silversun Pickups - "Panic Switch"
200. Rise Against - "Give It All"
201. Muse - "Knights of Cydonia"
202. Iron Maiden - "Hallowed Be Thy Name"

Phase V - THE GAUNTLET
203. Europe - "The Final Countdown"
204. My Chemical Romance - "Sing"
205. Queen - "Don't Stop Me Now"
206. Lacuna Coil - "Our Truth"
207. Jimi Hendrix - "All Along the Watchtower"
208. A-ha - "Take On Me"
209. Barenaked Ladies - "One Week"
210. Bon Jovi - "Runaway"
211. Don McLean - "American Pie"
212. Pearl Jam - "Jeremy"
213. Iron Maiden - "Flight of Icarus"
214. Dream Theater - "Metropolis, Pt. 1 - The Miracle and the Sleeper"
215. The Protomen - "This City Made Us"
216. 4 Non Blondes - "What's Going On?"
217. The Cranberries - "Dreams" 
218. Tenacious D - "Master Exploder"
219. Mastodon - "Colony of Birchmen"
220. Sonata Arctica - "Flag in the Ground"
221. System of a Down - "Chop Suey"
222. Pat Benatar - "Invinicble"
223. The Darkness - "I Believe In A Thing Called Love"
224. Heart - "Crazy On You"
225. Bonnie Tyler - "Total Eclipse of the Heart"
226. Aerosmith - "Dream On"
227. Everlife - "Real Wild Child"
228. That Handsome Devil - "Rob the Prez-O-Dent"
229. Styx - "Renegade"
230. The B-52s - "Rock Lobster"
231. The Strokes - "Reptilia"
232. Shaimus - "Like A Fool"
233. Rush - "2112"
234. Kansas - "Carry On Wayward Son"
235. The Isley Brothers - "Shout"
236. Earth, Wind & Fire - "September"
237. David Bowie and Queen - "Under Pressure"
238. Van Halen - "Runnin' With the Devil"
239. Talking Heads - "Psycho Killer"
240. Death of the Cool - "Can't Let Go"
241. Janis Joplin - "Piece Of My Heart"
242. Counting Crows - "Mr. Jones"
243. Blues Traveler - "Run Around"
244. Boston - "Smokin'"
245. Bent Knee - "These Hands"
246. Ohio Players - "Love Rollercoaster"
247. Soundgarden - "Spoonman"
248. Deep Purple - "Child in Time"
249. Quiet Riot - "Metal Health (Bang Your Head)"
250. Queen - "Bohemian Rhapsody"
251. Iron Maiden - "Run to the Hills"
252. Judas Priest - "Painkiller"

Outro:
253. Queen - "We Are The Champions"
254. Semisonic - "Closing Time"

Sunday, August 4, 2024

Dreaming of Rock Band 5

Music games like the Rock Band series were a bright light that burned out too quickly. The whole genre went through an epic boom and bust all in less than a decade and has almost totally vanished. I'm not sure how I stumbled on this, but there was some wiki where people had collaborated on a potential Rock Band 5 setlist, even though Harmonix has said they have no plans for a new game in the series.

Still, all it took was that one pleasant discovery and I was back on my bullshit. I'm not sure why coming up with hypothetical soundtracks for these games has always been so satisfying, but it is. Even though the series had something like 3,000 available songs in the end, there is still so much great music that never made it to the plastic instruments. Here is a list of 84 songs, which was the number of tracks in both Rock Band 2 and 3 and divides very nicely into the seven difficulty groups. It's funny how people always try and have a variety of different genres when they do this but you can always inevitably tell what they really like. This one probably has more metal than would ever make it into one of the games (gotta have room for lightweight hipster songs, after all) and it was definitely done by a singer.

One last note: I avoided bands that were vocal about never wanting to be in any of these games, i.e. Led Zeppelin, Pink Floyd, and a few others. It's more interesting that way, anyhow. Enjoy these images that I mocked up using a spiffy little program that lets you generate your own difficulty rankings that look like they came right out of the game! The only drawback was you can only use the genres that Harmonix used, so the two Eurobeat songs had to be classified as "Pop/Dance/Electronic." They should have added some Eurobeat while they had the chance.

Ter 0 - Warmup

Tier 1 - Apprentice

Tier 2 - Solid

Tier 3 - Moderate

Tier 4 - Challenging

Tier 5 - Nightmare

Tier 6 - Impossible

And one special hidden bonus track!

Friday, March 8, 2024

Oscars 2024 Educated Guesses


If you've read these write-ups of mine before, you might notice a pattern of starting off with criticism of the previous year. Thankfully, that doesn't seem necessary this time. Last year's Oscars were pretty satisfying, with lots of great speeches and a Best Picture victory for a genuine landmark film that absolutely deserved it. There also hasn't been much of the usual angst about the length of the show and there definitely haven't been any misguided attempts to give out participation trophies to blockbusters, given that two of the year's biggest movies are competing in numerous categories.

The "Barbenheimer" phenomenon that has come to define the previous year's film culture is back with a vengeance. Barbie won the good-natured rivalry when it came to box office, but Oppenheimer is clearly poised to do better during this matchup. Despite Barbie's eight total nominations, the movie's fans are deeply upset about how it was dinged in Best Actress and Best Director. It does have the whiff of snobbery, as if the voters didn't want the movie about a child's toy to get too big for its plastic britches. But the reality is these are competitive categories and the Academy's expanded membership has led to more nominations for international films (i.e. Anatomy of a Fall) at the expense of American contenders who seemed like a sure thing.

It's time to get into the categories, starting with one I'm particularly excited about.

Best Animated Feature
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Who Will Win: This past year for animation was so outstanding that I wish this category would follow Best Picture's lead and have ten nominees cause five is not doing it justice. Robot Dreams was a huge surprise given that it's extremely hard to find (best not to ask me how I saw it) and while the voters have better access to the movies, I don't see it getting past these others. Elemental is not in the same league as the rest - it's not bad by any stretch but it's definitely mid-tier Pixar. I love Nimona but the inter-studio drama will probably sink it - Netflix more or less publicly shamed Disney by reviving the production and releasing the film after the mouse house bought Blue Sky Studios and cancelled it for being too gay (and everyone says they're so "woke"). 

That leaves two heavyweights squaring off for the win. Hayao Miyazaki became the only anime filmmaker to win in this category with Spirited Away in 2002 and could very well win again with The Boy and the Heron if anyone is taking his perennial declarations of retirement seriously this time. However, I think the voters will go with the thrilling and insanely innovative Across the Spider-Verse - if the live-action superhero films were even half as fun and artistically daring as this series has been, they wouldn't be bombing so hard at the box office.

My Choice: If I'm not mistaken, there has never been more than one anime film in this category at a time. So the debut of a new Miyazaki joint was probably the kiss of death for Suzume, which was my favorite movie of the year, animated or not. I'm fond of most of these movies but I suppose I would give it to Across the Spider-Verse. It was just so much fun and you want to encourage that.


Best Documentary

20 Days in Mariupol
Bobi Wine: The People's President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill A Tiger

Who Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol is a journalistic masterpiece about the Russian siege of a Ukrainian city that I put off watching for quite a while because of how brutal I feared it was going to be. Sadly, I was right - it's a nightmare of mass graves, bombed hospitals, and sobbing parents. The main issue that could work against this film is that many Academy members may not even want to watch it. If that happens, the Tunisian story of a family reunited in Four Daughters will be the likely beneficiary. The others are lesser known and their nominations were generally unexpected. However, Navalny's win (rest in peace) last year demonstrated that the membership was eager to stick it to Vladimir Putin and the director will surely give a hell of a speech. If a similar film about Gaza comes along in a year or two, that will be a very different dynamic.

A little bit of trivia - there is not a single American film in this lineup. It's led to a lot of grousing and weird nationalism on the part of Hollywood big shots. Once again, everyone says they're so liberal...but if they are, it's really just by Boomer standards.

My Choice: I hope that 20 Days in Mariupol helps to get certain people convicted of war crimes at some point. It deserves the win, even if I won't be watching it again.


Best Adapted Screenplay

Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach for Barbie
Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest
Cord Jefferson for American Fiction
Tony McNamara for Poor Things
Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer

Who Will Win: The first of several Barbenheimer matchups but this category is just a slugfest in general packed with hugely acclaimed films. Gerwig and Baumbach originally wanted to submit their work in the Original Screenplay category, but the Academy ruled that even though there's never been a real "story" to go with Barbie dolls, a movie about them is still an adaptation. Between that and the movie whiffing in Best Actress and Best Director, its biggest fans are pretty salty despite the overall eight nominations. It's unlikely that the voters will let Greta Gerwig leave empty handed given the enormous financial and cultural success of the movie, but it's not a done deal. I could see a scenario where all the others win except The Zone of Interest, which is so light on dialogue that I doubt people think much about the screenplay when giving it awards consideration.

My Choice: I would love to see the hilarious, cantankerous screenplay for American Fiction pull off a win. What can I say, I just love flippancy.


Best Original Screenplay

Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik for May December
Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer for Maestro
David Hemingson for The Holdovers
Celine Song for Past Lives
Justine Triet and Arthur Harari for Anatomy of a Fall

Who Will Win: There's a lot of action on this side of the writing categories too. Before the nominations were announced, I would have guessed either The Holdovers or Past Lives for their memorable character arcs and the unique voices of their writers, but then Anatomy of a Fall overperformed in a major way. The Academy members are clearly big fans and this seems like its best chance for a win.

My Choice: It's the least likely to win, but my film buff traits made me a perfect match for May December's razor sharp critique of the sleaziness that animates most "true crime" adaptations. Some of the members have likely worked on the movies and TV shows being mocked, so I doubt they were as amused.


Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks in The Color Purple
America Ferrera in Barbie
Jodie Foster in Nyad
Da'Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers

Who Will Win: Da'vine Joy Randolph has been unstoppable during the preliminary awards, to the point where nobody else has gotten any traction. As the wise but troubled cook at a prestigious boarding school, she gave the textbook definition of a great supporting performance, leaving a strong impression on the overall movie despite only appearing in a handful of scenes. At this point, the other four nominees are mostly just for the sake of tradition.

My Choice: When America Ferrera turned up as one of the nominees, a lot of people were surprised. I wasn't. Her performance as the frustrated designer at Mattel grounds the movie and she's at the center of its most memorable scene. Her monologue about double standards faced by women will almost certainly be the clip used to introduce her. 


Best Supporting Actor

Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction
Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey, Jr. in Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling in Barbie
Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things

Who Will Win: In a movie with an enormous ensemble cast, it was Robert Downey Jr. who stood out the most as the vindictive self-absorbed bureaucrat Lewis Strauss. After years of playing Iron Man, a role he could do in his sleep, this was a major reminder to everyone just how good of an actor he is. It's not a "comeback" story because he didn't go anywhere, but the thought process is a little similar.

My Choice: Um, excuse me? Where is Snoop the dog from Anatomy of a Fall? Seriously? All of those other nominations but he gets snubbed? Outrageous.

I think Downey is a good match for Christopher Nolan's style and I hope they work together again. He deserves the win but I do have a soft spot for Sterling K. Brown, who gave some absolutely priceless line deliveries in American Fiction.


Best Actress

Annette Bening in Nyad
Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Huller in Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan in Maestro
Emma Stone in Poor Things

Who Will Win: The supporting categories are pretty well sewn up, but this is where it starts to get closer. As the Osage oil heiress Mollie Burkhart, whose own husband is part of a conspiracy to murder her family and steal their wealth, Lily Gladstone is crucial to the emotional power of Killers of the Flower Moon. She has been splitting the preliminary awards pretty evenly with Emma Stone as the eccentric and headstrong Frankenstein-esque creation Bella from Poor Things. If we're being honest, it's a much more interesting role than the aspiring actress part from La La Land that won Stone her first Oscar.

Gladstone is the first Native American to compete in this category and a victory would bring about the same widespread elation that Michelle Yeoh's similarly historic win did last year. Stone herself has made it pretty obvious that she's rooting for Gladstone and the good vibes (and press) would be hard to resist. Hollywood's own checkered history with the depiction of America's indigenous people over the years would make it an even more powerful statement. 

My Choice: I hope I didn't make it sound like Gladstone would only win for the historical significance and good publicity, because it really was a great performance. Her character's escalating grief haunted me for quite a while after that movie ended.


Best Actor

Bradley Cooper in Maestro
Colman Domingo in Rustin
Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright in American Fiction

Who Will Win: All of the usual metrics point to a win by Cillian Murphy as the "Father of the Atomic Bomb" Robert Oppenheimer - he's got the Golden Globe, the Screen Actors Guild award, all manner of critic prizes, etc. And yet for whatever reason I'm not totally convinced. It's a very good performance but it was a generally subtle performance, not the kind that tends to win. The old joke about the Oscars is that the categories don't go to the "best acting" (or whatever the category is), they go to the "most acting." Although if that were really the case, it would be Bradley Cooper winning this - watching that movie, you never once forgot how hard he was working.

But it wouldn't be Cooper who would upset, it would be Paul Giamatti. As the strict, neurotic teacher in The Holdovers, he gave the sort of boisterous and emotional performance that often wins. He's been in so many films by now and is always so good, yet has never won. I could definitely see it happening, but then I wonder if I'm being subconsciously influenced by how much I enjoyed his work in that movie. The data suggests Murphy will win, so I'm sticking with that for now.

My Choice: I suppose I've already let that slip, but I would love to see Giamatti win. He's one of those actors who always improves a movie.


Best Director

Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest
Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things
Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon
Justine Triet for Anatomy of a Fall

Who Will Win: Christopher Nolan is one of the most influential and successful filmmakers of the 21st century and while he's been nominated several times, he has yet to win. This is one of the least suspenseful categories of the evening - Nolan tackled an incredibly ambitious project with Oppenheimer and pulled it off with his distinctive style. He's already got the Director's Guild Award to show for it. As far as predictors go, that one is wrong maybe once a decade but it won't be this year.

My Choice: There is a lot of really impressive work in this list and I'm not overly invested in any particular nominee. Nolan deserves it, but so would the others.


Best Picture

American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

Who Will Win: You can probably guess by now, but let's work backwards like usual. Past Lives is a sad, personal little movie that has been drowned out by huge movies about genocide and destruction. The Holdovers also has a timeless focus on personal relationships that works against it in the times we live in. Underestimating a Holocaust movie like The Zone of Interest is risky business at the Oscars, but the voters typically like some uplift to soften the blow and this movie has absolutely no interest in that. Poor Things is delightful but way too weird and perverted for this crowd. Maestro is basically an unintentional parody of Oscar bait dramas, ignoring the most interesting elements of Leonard Bernstein's life in favor of a fraught romance. It would have been a major contender maybe 15 or 20 years ago, but not now. American Fiction is the funniest movie to be nominated for Best Picture in quite a while, but comedies don't usually win, especially ones that satirize the tropes of race-themed stories that the Oscars themselves have done a lot to perpetuate. As for Barbie, it wouldn't have come up short in Actress and Director if it had a real chance of winning.

Anatomy of a Fall ended up with so many major nominations that I start to wonder if it could actually win. The legacy of Parasite's victory is that I always need to consider that possibility for an international film but I think the competition has enough momentum to hold it off. That leaves us with two huge historical dramas in the tradition of classic winners like Lawrence of Arabia, The Bridge on the River Kwai, Schindler's List, Titanic, and many more. In the end, I think Oppenheimer has the edge over Killers of the Flower Moon in part because Nolan's signature style and his creative non-linear story structure makes it feel unique and innovative while also hitting a lot of the notes that the voters like. The movie's stark warning about global destruction also comes at a time when we may be in the early stages of a new world war. That sounds absurd but then I wonder - did people believe a world war had started in 1939 when Hitler invaded Poland? Or was it just seen as a more typical European conflict until it wasn't? We're obviously not big on learning the lessons of history, but we can at least give them awards.

My Choice: Killers of the Flower Moon > Anatomy of a Fall > Oppenheimer > American Fiction > The Holdovers > Poor Things > Past Lives > Barbie > The Zone of Interest > Maestro

A pretty strong group of movies (except for Maestro, that one was really grating). I think the lessons of Killers of the Flower Moon are just as necessary as those of Oppenheimer, but anti-war is generally an easier sell than anti-colonialism and anti-white supremacy. I think most of the movies here will have a robust afterlife after the awards are done, which you can't say for every year's nominees.

See you next year if I'm not killed amidst widespread political violence!